Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, August 22nd!
Randwick plays host to the first Group 1 of the 2020/21 racing season with the Winx Stakes headlining a nine-race card in Sydney. The track is drying out and is likely to be in the soft range rather than heavy, and the rail returns to the true position.
Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card with his tips and best bets below!
Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, August 22nd
Best Bet: Race 8 – (8) Poetic Charmer E/W
Best Value: Race 3 – (11) This Is So / (4) Kaapfever
We begin the day with the staying race over 2400m which is highly uninspiring. (4) Home Ground is building to a win and gets every possible chance to win today. He’s had three runs back from a spell now and comes off a 2nd placing at Cantebrury last start. He was very well backed that day but couldn’t reel in the leader Tochi. The sharp step up from 1900m to 2400m is ideal and he did win the Geelong Classic at this stage of his last preparation. The way he ran on the Soft 7 last start gives me hope that he handles the ground and he’ll carry 54.5kg after the claim for Tom Sherry. (2) Desert Path was ridden further forward last start and it paid dividends, picking up a 2.3L win at Rosehill over this distance. Three starts back he was beaten a nose over this track and distance, and his run in between those two races was a forgive as he got too far back. He’s going well and they often say the best form for a 2400m race is a 2400m race. Cops 2.5kg in the weights today but JMac is on from a low draw and he will be ridden positively again. He’s hard to beat. Happy to stick with those two.
Highways haven’t historically been my best races but we’ve had very good success in the past couple of weeks so we’ll try and find something out of this week’s edition. (14) It’s Me goes on top, coming off a dominant win on debut at Scone. She defeated Not Another Reiby by 2.3L on that occasion, and that horse then came out and ran 2nd to Stellar Pauline at Hawkesbury on Thursday, which is a solid form reference. Jason Collett is the stable’s go-to rider in town and he has four wins from 12 rides. Drawn to sit midfield, will need the track to allow those from off-pace to run on, but I’m surprised this isn’t favourite ahead of the stablemate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market flip before race time. There’s a couple at good odds to include too. (12) Skara Brae put back-to-back wins together at Wellington and Scone before running 3rd over 1000m in a Highway here two starts ago. She was only beaten 0.4L on that occasion, despite sitting five-wide throughout. Jason Collett rode her there and again last start but jumps off to ride It’s Me today. Speaking of last start, I thought her run in defeat was much better than it looked. She sat near last and came widest in the straight on a day which played heavily in favour of those on speed/on rails early. Can win at double figures but negative jockey change the query. (8) Clearly Regal must be included at $31. James McDonald is booked for Kurt Goldman which catches the eye. Should be right up on speed and can surprise at odds. (18) Supreme Streak can be included. It’s Me and Skara Brae both good bets, Clearly Regal the knockout.
Value: (12) Skara Brae $11
I was with (2) New King last start but I’m jumping off today. His win was good but he got the run of the race and it’s a different scenario today, carrying 59.5kg and drawn barrier 10. He can win – he’s still got more improvement in him at just his third run in Australia – but he’s short enough at $3.80. I think there’s two great bets here at good odds, which will make up my best value of the day. (11) This Is So did a terrific job winning last start, fighting off Baanone after sitting three-wide the trip. That was at Canterbury but I think he will be even better on his home deck at Randwick today. Typically, runners from this stable go best here. He draws perfectly in barrier 4, he gets ideal conditions and he has the most in-form jockey in Sydney on board in Tommy Berry. There’s a lot to like about his chances and $6.50 is a great bet. (4) Kaapfever is also a big price at $19. He always needs a couple runs to come good – he’s had 10 starts when first and second up for just the one minor placing. He’s had four starts when third up from a spell for a win and three minor placings, though, so he should be starting to peak today. He was only beaten 0.6L last start so he’s not far off, and he gets Rachel King taking over from the apprentice today. Draws well, has a good record at the distance and has won here before. Goes best on soft ground so he is over the odds at the current price. Very keen to back both of those.
Also backing: (4) Kaapfever $19
(3) See You Soon gets her chance here, but I wouldn’t mind them trying to be positive from barrier 1, especially if the track is favouring those on speed early. She was beaten a nose first up in the g2 Reisling Stakes over this track and distance last preparation, in very similar conditions to what she will get today. (1) Dame Giselle beat her on that occasion but the difference that day was Dame Giselle was second up, while See You Soon was first up. They both meet first up today and with barrier 1, I’m leaning to See You Soon. (5) September Run has had less time off the track than these as she raced in Brisbane just 12 weeks ago. She’s going to have residual fitness on her side and she can be very competitive. I think the real smokey in the race, and probably the value too, is (7) Kaakit Akit at $8.50. She was backed as if unbeatable on debut and duly saluted, but she drifted at her second run and was well-beaten. She resumes with two trials under the belt today and the bandages come off, indicating she’s much more sound this time around. She should find the front and that shouldn’t be a disadvantage.
Value: (7) Kaakit Akit $8.50
Really interesting little race here and after some extra digging, I’ve ended up on a horse I didn’t think I’d be with. (6) Wild Planet goes on top for me at $8.50. There’s a couple of horses engaged that are looking for further than 1200m but I think this distance is suitable for Wild Planet. First up last prep, he was motoring home in the G2 Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield over 1100m when he was stopped dead in his tracks in the last 50m. I think 1100m is a bit sharp for him but 1200m is better. He trialled well enough behind Kingsheir and it’s worth noting he was without blinkers in that race, but he will wear them here. The only thing is he desperately needs a fair track, or he will have no hope coming from the back. (2) Special Reward looks our leader in the race and he’s the 1200m specialist. He has six wins from 10 starts over 1200m, including a win and a 2nd from two starts here at Randwick. He’s undefeated on soft ground and he’s won twice before when first up. He should be very forward with three trials under the belt and if he finds the front easily, he’s going to be mighty hard to run down. (3) Funstar was nominated to run in the G1 Winx Stakes but they chose this option over 1200m instead. Waller was bullish about her chances in that race, so you’d think she will be very, very hard to beat here in a race of far less depth and quality. But the obvious query is the distance. She hasn’t finished out of the top two from six starts at the track so she’s going to be right there in the finish. (4) Probabeel hasn’t run over 1200m since she was a 2YO so I’m happy to take her on.
(6) Adelong is clearly going to be very hard to beat here – she’s had eight career starts for six wins and two 2nd placings. She was a bit underdone first up last prep when she failed to run down Lesage at Canterbury but she’ll be a bit more forward this time around with just 10 weeks between runs. She just continues to beat what’s put in front of her and handles any track conditions, so she’s pretty bombproof. She will probably have to sit outside the leader from barrier and she is quite clearly the one they all have to beat. Tim Clark picks up the ride as James McDonald can’t make the weight. I think we’ll see (7) Seasons return to her best today and I’m going to have a stab at the $7.00 on offer, each way. She had a long time off leading into last preparation and perhaps that told first up at Kembla, but I think her trial this time in was far better than her trial leading into last prep, and even the one in the middle of her prep. That could have been because they let her roll out the front rather than make her overrace behind horses, so tactics here will be interesting. Kerrin McEvoy goes straight on first up and I think we will see her race very well. (1) Sweet Deal won easily first p over 1200m here last preparation, even after sitting three-wide the trip. That was also on soft ground which she’d never been any good on before then, so I’m wary of a big run first up. The concern today is 1100m – a distance she’s never won over – and the fact she carries 59kg, 4kg more than any other horse.
Race 7 – Group 1 Winx Stakes 1400m (Market)
Click here to view our comprehensive runner-by-runner preview of the G1 Winx Stakes!
There are a few big names returning to the track in this race but I’m betting against them because I think (8) Poetic Charmer is a fantastic each way play here at $6.00. He’s returned in career-best form this preparation, with two wins and a 3rd from three starts, and he had little luck in that race he ran 3rd in, even lodging a protest against the second horse. The winner of that race (Inanup) has since won again, and obviously Poetic Charmer came out and won his next start too, so the form is good. The way he finished off last start suggests the step up to 1400m will be no issue at all, in fact it’s probably a positive. He’s effective on wet ground and all he needs is the track to be playing fairly and allowing those from back in the field to run on. Tommy Berry takes the ride and there’s no one riding better than him in Sydney right now, so everything points to this horse being right in the finish again. He’s the race-fit, in-form horse and I think he can upset the more hyped horses returning from their breaks. We’re getting $6.00/$2.50, so I’ll be having a strong each way bet heavily weighted to the place price. (11) Kinane returns from a break and he obviously looks a very classy horse. I wouldn’t worry too much about his trials, which have looked average. He’s run against Nature Strip in both of them and just been run off his legs. My concern is 1400m first up with the wide draw. Waller runners typically go right back when they draw wide and I just don’t know if he will be sharp enough fresh over this distance, especially when giving the others a big head start. He will have bigger targets in mind so I will take him on today. (10) Just Thinkin’ returns from a spell too. I don’t think there’s any doubt that he will be fit enough as Gai will have him ready. 1400m first up looks to suit and it’s interesting that he returns with the blinkers off for the first time. He looks the designated leader in the race without much tempo so no surprise to see him give this a good shake from the front. (7) Costello had never done anything first up before running 2nd over 1500m at Rosehill last prep. They’ve followed the same path to today’s race so I would definitely include him at $21, with around $5 on offer for the place.
In the corner of (14) Valdostana to close out the day. She has been good in her two starts back from a break, albeit going down as favourite in both. First up she came from back in the field and wide and was only run down right on the line – you almost can’t win like that at Canterbury right now, so the effort was full of merit. Last start she just found one better in the form of Fender, who is now undefeated from four career starts. She settled near last and blundered a couple of times in the straight, so it was another good effort. I think back onto a firmer surface today is a big positive. She draws barrier 1 so hopefully she can sit a bit closer in the run, and she looks ready to win third up from a spell. I’m quite happy to oppose (11) Best Stone who had absolutely everything go her way when winning at Canterbury last start, courtesy of one of the best rides you’ll see from Nash Rawiller. He is replaced by Tom Sherry today which is an obvious downgrade, but she does get in with 52.5kg as a result. I conceded she’s a good chance but I’ll be taking her on. (9) Icebath looks the class runner of the field and she could come out and belt these. She won her first two starts last prep and then had very little luck in her final three runs of the prep. The form around the likes of Indy Car and Dawn Passage is very strong. Awkward draw but she is right in this if the track is playing fairly. Interested to see what the market does with (8) Knickpoint who blew like a gale and ran accordingly first up, but he did improve sharply second up last prep. (6) Perigord not hopeless at big odds.
