Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for the Group 1 Winx Stakes at Royal Randwick on Saturday, August 22nd!
The Winx Stakes is the first Group 1 of the 2020/21 Australian racing season, and we have a sizzling field assembled for Saturday's feature at Randwick! There's nine individual Group 1 winners among the field, and Tim Geers has assessed the chances of every runner in his comprehensive preview and betting tips below!
2020 Winx Stakes Preview & Betting Tips
Speed map and tempo
There looks to be a fair bit of speed engaged here. Quackerjack and Dreamforce look as if they will press forward from their wide barriers, with the two Waterhouse/Bott runners drawn inside them also likely to kick up and position on speed, those being Con Te Partiro and Wolfe. The latter was ridden with a sit last preparation but resumes with the blinkers back on today. Brandenburg should find a position on the pace and The Bostonian will be railing through from barrier 1 to hold a spot. All four Waller runners should be ridden conservatively here. They won’t want to gas Verry Elleegant out first up so they’ll look to slot her in from her middle draw, while Kolding and Imaging are likely to go back from their wide draws, as is the case when horses draw out from this stable. Star Of The Seas came from back in the field to win first up last prep and from a tricky draw is also likely to be snagged back. Fierce Impact and Flit should be able to hold a spot midfield from their low draws, while the connections of Melody Belle have advised the mare will be ridden closer to the speed from barrier 6 today. The favourite Master Of Wine will come into barrier 10 and I think we’ll see him land just worse than midfield. Niccanova and Avilius are backmarkers.
So there looks to be good speed, albeit not crazy, but enough to allow those back in the field to run on, provided the track plays fairly.
Runner-by-runner analysis
1. Dreamforce: His stats all point to him being super competitive today. He has five wins and three 2nds from 14 starts at Randwick, and has only ever missed a place twice from 12 starts at the distance. He no doubt goes better on firmer ground, but the soft track will be no excuse for him given he’s run six top-two finishes from seven starts on soft ground. He’s only missed the money twice from 10 starts when first up. First up last preparation he led everywhere bar the post in the G2 Apollo Stakes over this track and distance, beaten a nose by Alizee, with Happy Clapper back in third. That was in similar conditions to what he will face today. The speed map may be the biggest issue. He’s drawn wide in barrier 16 with plenty of speed drawn to his inside, with the likes of Quackerjack, Brandenburg, Con Te Partiro and possibly even Wolfe all set to be up there. He’s definitely a chance but might just find one better.
2. The Bostonian: Bounced back to form big time last preparation, with two runs at Group 1 level for a win and a 0.2L 2nd. This horse’s first up record is freakish, with six wins from seven starts, two of which were at Group 1 level. I would argue the G1 Canterbury Stakes he won first up last prep was a much easier race than this – he beat Savatiano and Mister Sea Wolf – but he backed it up by splitting Dreamforce and Te Akau Shark last time he ran, which is legitimate G1 form. He has seven wins from 12 starts on wet ground so conditions will suit. He comes up with barrier 1 so should sit midfield at worst, but will need some luck. Negative jockey change with Jay Ford taking over from Nash Rawiller and JMac who rode him last prep, but with that fresh record, he rates as a serious chance.
3. Avilius: The jury is out on this horse following his last preparation. They said he needed soft ground, he got it and was plain. They said he needed 2000m, he got it and was plain, and when he got out to 2400m he was no better. Now he does bring elite G1 form behind Addeybb and Verry Elleegant but they were in a different suburb. Terrible gate for him, 1400m unsuitable and unlikely to be competitive in a field of this strength.
4. Fierce Impact: Starting this time last year, this has gone to a new level. He ran 2nd beaten a nose first up this time last year over this track and distance on soft ground, before winning back-to-back Group 1s in Melbourne. Last preparation he returned with a 0.3L 2nd in G1 company in Melbourne, before running 3rd in the G1 Chipping Stakes over the mile here at Randwick. Soft ground is probably ideal for him, as is tackling these horses first up. Looks ready to go and barrier 4 gives him a lovely trail in midfield. Can be right in the finish and looks a good bet at $16.
5. Kolding: This horse really went to a new level this time last preparation as well, which was the result of being gelded. That culminated in victory in the G1 Epsom Handicap and the Golden Eagle. He lost his form completely when he went to Melbourne last preparation, but the didn’t get much better when he returned to Sydney for his final two starts. Barrier 18 means he will be ridden very cold and he is likely to need the run first up in any case. It will be interesting to see if he hits the line and gives any indication that he has come back better than last prep, but can’t back him.
6. Imaging: Absolute horror show first up in the G2 Missile Stakes behind Eduardo and Flit. The form out of that race is very questionable but I would go so far as to say he would have won with even luck. He’s got a terrific second up record with five top-two finishes from six starts when second up, including last prep when winning the G2 Ajax Stakes over 1500m at Rosehill on heavy ground. Loves this distance – has never finished out of the top two from five starts over 1400m, but is yet to place from three starts here at Randwick. Hard to know if he is a genuine G1 horse and the map doesn’t help, but if he won I wouldn’t be completely surprised.
7. Master Of Wine: One of the most-talked about horses leading into the Spring and is right up near the top of the markets for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. He won four on the trot in an absolute canter before stepping up sharply in grade to tackle the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at the end of last prep. That was his first run in Group 1 company and to run 4th behind the likes of Addeybb, Verry Elleegant and Danon Premium was exceptionally good. He absolutely cruised home to win by 3.5L first up over this distance last preparation but that was a BM100, not a Group 1. His trials have been good without being outstanding, but he hasn’t worn blinkers in those so expect them to bring about improvement on race day. Doubt they will have him fully wound up first up over this distance given his lofty Spring targets, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him come out and win.
8. Niccanova: You’d struggle to find a horse with less luck than this – he’s been running super up in Brisbane without much luck. He gets back and flashes home and is never beaten far. He’s had an odd prep, dropping from 1600m back to 1050m and now up to 1400m, but he goes well over any distance he races at. There is a huge difference between what he’s been running against in Brisbane and what he faces here though. This is a red-hot WFA G1 with some elite horses so he should be outclassed here, even though he has the aid of wet track form and race fitness.
9. Star Of The Seas: They had this horse ready to go first up over 1100m last preparation and he got the job done. That was at G3 level, but he did rise to G1 level with a very narrow defeat in the Doncaster on heavy ground. Difference was, that was a handicap and this is WFA, so now he’s tackling the big boys at level weights. He loves it wet and he’s got a great fresh record, but he looks outclassed in this field under the race conditions.
10. Quackerjack: Goes very well fresh with three wins from six starts first up from a spell, including a win over 1300m here at Randwick last preparation in G3 company. He looks a level below this though, as this is a very deep WFA G1. He looks a definite pace angle in the race so look for him to slide across from barrier 13 to take up a position right on speed. Looks tested in this grade.
11. Brandenburg: Very intriguing runner. He resumed with victory in the G2 Hobartville Stakes over this distance last preparation. He then went on to finish 1.7L off Dreamforce and The Bostonian in the George Ryder, before running 3rd in the Doncaster. He’s had a break which is a positive as this is really when we should see him starting to come into his best, though they haven’t gelded him. He’s never finished out of the top two first up and he should take up a position on speed from barrier 12. I can’t see him winning, but I can see him being competitive. Definitely not the worst.
12. Verry Elleegant: The three-time Group 1 winner went to a new level last preparation, matching motors with Addeybb in the G1 Ranvet Stakes, before bolting in to win the G1 Tancred Stakes in arrogant fashion. She then dropped in trip to the 2000m of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes where she spit Addeybb and Danon Premium, which is the strongest form line in this race by a fair margin. She’s not going to be wound up at all here, first up at 1400m with just one quiet trial under the belt. She obviously relishes wet ground with seven wins and three 2nds from 12 starts on rain-affected tracks, so she will get conditions to suit, but she still looks poisonous odds at $7.50. I think she should be double that. She can be followed later in the campaign but they’re setting her for bigger goals down the track and I have to take her on today, even with JMac on board.
13. Melody Belle: Big drifter in betting first up and she ran accordingly, finishing last in the G2 Missile Stakes. She can be forgiven for that though, I wouldn’t be dropping off her just yet. They rode her stone cold from the wide gate on that occasion, on a day where it was impossible to make any ground. She was also first up over 1200m, a distance which I think is well short of her best at this stage of her career. I think she’s looking for 1600m-2000m now, so 1400m might even still be a bit sharp, but at least she comes into this with that run under the belt and I expect her to improve sharply from what she showed first up. The stable have said they will ride her much more positively from barrier 6 today, so she should be about midfield in the run. She loves the wet ground but there is also a little query over her record at Randwick, as she’s yet to place from four starts here. I’m wary of her but I also can’t be with her just yet.
14. Con Te Partiro: This American mare went to a new level last prep, winning two Group 1s in the Coolmore Classic and the Coolmore Legacy Stakes, with a good run in the Doncaster between those victories. Those three races were all on heavy ground so she should appreciate the soft ground she’s likely to get here. She was well-beaten first up last prep over this track and distance, but that was on good ground so that could have been a contributing factor. She will go forward from the inside gate and can be very competitive, as she will be fit and ready as opposed to a few others in this race which will have plenty left in the tank. Her trials have been very good so all signs point to a good run, but this is WFA against the boys, which is a step up from mares races that she won last prep. Keep her safe.
15. Flit: Happy to pen Flit after her first up 2nd placing behind Eduardo in the G2 Missile Stakes. Her run was good but I expected her to win that, although Eduardo was always going to be exceptionally hard to run past once the track was favouring leaders and those on the rail. So her run was good, but not good enough for her to come out and win a WFA Group 1 race of this depth. JMac is replaced by Glyn Schofield which is one of the more negative jockey changes you can get in Sydney, so happy to look past her today.
17. Wolfe: Gains a run as first emergency with the scratching of Funstar. He has a good record first up with two wins and two placings from four starts. Resumes with three trials under the belt and the blinkers go back on for his first up run, so he will be fit enough, but he won’t be good enough. Wet ground isn’t his go either. He was ridden quietly last preparation but with the blinkers back on today I wouldn’t be surprised to see him ridden more aggressively. Not up to this level though.
18. Zebrowski: Interesting to see how this horse measures up today. He’s still very lightly-raced with just six career starts, and he’s finished in the top two in every start since his debut. He ran 2nd in both the Tulloch Stakes and the Derby last preparation, so his best distance is likely to be over further than 1400m. This is the first time he’s taken on older horses in his career and he is still very unexposed, so there is no real guide on how he might measure up. It’s a very big ask for a horse like him to carry 58.5kg against seasoned Group 1 performers at just his seventh career start, especially first up from a spell. Clearly he’s got a lot of talent, but this is a huge ask if he does get a run. A horse to follow though!
Selections
This is just an outstanding line up and you could make a genuine case for about 10 horses here. I’ve narrowed it down to five main chances. (1) Dreamforce should be able to come across and land on speed, which I don’t think will be a bad thing today. All of his stats point to him being very competitive – he’s got an outstanding record first up, at the track and the distance. (2) The Bostonian is the best fresh horse in the race, with six wins from seven starts when first up. Whether the inside is the place to be at this stage of the day is a small query but you can’t underestimate his record at this stage of his preparation, which includes a Group 1 win last prep over a similar distance at this track. (4) Fierce Impact sets up nicely for this. There’s a lot of horses that aren’t going to be ideally suited in this, but I think first up 1400m on soft ground is ideal for him, with ideal track conditions as well. $16 is a decent price for him. The favourite (7) Master Of Wine is obviously very hard to beat. He bolted in over this distance first up last prep, but it was against D-graders. First up, 1400m against elite level WFA Group 1 performers is a big ask for this horse, given his grand final will be well down the line. His class might well get him over the line but I can’t have him on top with this set up. (11) Brandenburg is the interesting runner in the race. No four-year-old has won this race in 20+ years which is an obvious concern. He won the Hobartville Stakes first up last prep over this distance on soft ground, and was only 1.7L off Dreamforce and The Bostonian later in the prep. I expect him to take natural improvement from his three-year-old season to his four-year-old season and a win wouldn’t shock me. Plenty of other chances but can’t have them all! My main two bets in the race will be Fierce Impact and The Bostonian.
