Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, March 7th.
The Group 1 Canterbury Stakes and Group 1 Randwick Guineas headline a huge day of racing in Sydney, with the Autum carnival quickly approaching!
Our full preview and tips for every race on Randwick Guineas Day is below, and you can check out our video preview of today's feature races too.
Randwick Racing Tips: 2020 Randwick Guineas Day
Best Bet: Race 8 - (8) Shared Ambition
Best Value: Race 9 - (4) Another Dollar / (7) Savacool / (9) Gayatri
(3) Fasika finds a suitable race to tackle first up here. She was huge in defeat first up last prep when she sat wide the trip and was only beaten a nose. She's got a great record at this distance and she's won on heavy ground before, so the conditions should pose no problem for her. She's the one to beat. (7) Seasons can improve second up here. She's got a terrific second up record and she's also won on heavy ground before, so with Kerrin McEvoy going on, I'd expect her to improve at each way odds. (4) Resin should improve from her first up run too. She typically comes on for that first up run and performs well second up.
(2) Farnan bounced back in style last start, bolting in by 3.3L over 1100m on rain-affected ground at Rosehill. He should handle the heavy conditions today, and the only little quer I have is that he's never raced with two weeks between runs, they are normally more spaced. If he reproduces last start's effort, he'll win again on his way to the Slipper. (1) Tagaloa is the Blue Diamond winner and he comes to Sydney for the first time today. I'll take him on despite the enormous effort to win the Diamond despite sitting wide throughout. The two-year-old form from Melbourne doesn't often hold up in Sydney this time of year so it will be interesting to see how he measures up. (7) Bartley could be the forgotten horse at double figure odds. He won on debut at Kembla, then started odds on at his next start but never got clear running and was luckless in defeat. If he had have won that he'd probably be half the price he currently is. (4) Blaze A Trail is better than what she showed first up.
Keen to be with (3) See You Soon here. She beat (1) Dame Giselle on debut before Dame Giselle turned the tables on her in the Golden Gift. See You Soon still ran well in defeat on that occasion and she returns from a break today. Her breeding suggests to me she will relish today's wet conditions, and given Dame Giselle was disappointing first up, it gives See You Soon the chance to roll her once again. (5) Supreme Idea was a good winner here last start, where she beat home Dame Giselle by 2.6L. Again, she relished the wet track and will do so again today, whereas the jury is out on Dame Giselle.
This is a cracking race. Excited to see the return of (7) California Zimbol which is a horse I've got a lot of time for and a big opinion of. She was dominant in her first two starts last preparation before disappointing last time we saw her. She handles the wet and I think she's got the potential to reach Group 1 races eventually - she gave Loving Gaby a cold when they met last prep. I'm not sure the form of (8) Yao Dash warrants him being a $6.50 chance here. He won his first two starts and then finished 1.5L off the likes of Bivouac, Yes Yes Yes and Exceedence in the Golden Rose. That was the last time we saw him. That's the best form of anything in this race so he has to rate highly. (1) Cosmic Force has never finished out of the top two from three starts when first up and he'll handle the wet ground. The form around the likes of Standout, Exceedence and Bivouac is very strong.
Value: (8) Yao Dash $6.50
(7) California Zimbol
$4.20
Race 5 - G1 Canterbury Stakes (Market)
Only a small field for the Canterbury Stakes. (7) Standout goes on top as I think he's probably the best horse in the race, but the heavy track is a massive query for him so he'd want the track to improve quite a bit before the race so that it's into the soft range. Trainer Gerald Ryan suggested he would handle soft groun but said his trackwork on heavy ground was hopeles. He beat Alizee first up and she then came out and won her next start, and with four wins from five starts, he rates as the horse to beat. (5) Savatiano also won brilliantly first up. She has a terrific second up record with six tp two finishes from as many starts. She would also want the track to dry out a touch - she has six placings from seven starts on soft ground but her heavy track form isn't as good. She's also never missed a place at the distance from eight starts, which includes five wins. I can't work out why (4) Alizee is so short in the market at around $3.90. She was comfortably beaten by Standout first up and although she won last start, she drops back in distance here and meets Standout at the same weights for a 1.5L defeat. She also has a poor third up record. The underrated horse in the market is (2) The Bostonian who gets just about everything in his favour here. He's won five of his six starts when first up from a spell, he's undefeated at the distance and is undefeated on heavy ground. He's value at $12.
Value: (2) The Bostonian $12
Fascinating little race but it's a complete no bet race for me. (2) Nature Strip started $1.45 first up in the Lightning Stakes at Flemington but he was gone at the 200m, like we've seen a few times before. It's not uncommon for him to bounce off a poor performance like that to then come out and win - he did the same after a disappointing run first up last prep, and again the campaign before when he failed as favourite for the Oakleigh Plate. So it would be no surprise to see him come out and atone for that first up run, but there's just no confidence with him. (3) Redzel has finished in the top two in 10 of his 11 starts at this distance, and he's never finished out of the top two from six attempts at this track and distance, which includes four wins. We know he handles the wet conditions so he'll be right in the finish. The new kid on the block is (5) Deprive who will sit out the back and relish the strong tempo. He's won four of his five starts when first up and he's never lost at Randwick, winning 6/6. He'll be out the back of the field but if they cut each other up at the front, he'll be the horse sailing over the top.
Race 7 - G1 Randwick Guineas (Market)
The go-to form reference for the Randwick Guineas is the Hobartville Stakes, which is where the majority of this field come from. A large part of the market is taken up by the big hype horses (1) Castelvecchio and (5) Shadow Hero but I'm of the belief they're both in need of 2000m, especially the former, so I'll be taking them on here and chasing a bit of value. (6) Brandenburg was the winner of the Hobartville Stakes and I don't see any reason he can't be very competitive again today. He'll go forward from the wide gate and be several lengths ahead of the likes of Castelvecchio and Shadow Hero. They struggled to chase him down first up in the Hobartville and even though they get a bit more distance here, they might struggle to peg him back again. Brandenburg was only first up in the Hobartville so he should improve just like the other two. (8) Reloaded ran 2nd to Brandenburg and he was held up momentarily at the top of the straight, and he was taking ground off Brandenburg late in the race, which suggests the step up to 1600m should suit him. Happy to have something on him at $10. (10) Pancho is another Waller horse and he ran 4th in the Hobartville. Other horses hit the line better than him, but he's undefeated second up which tells me there's plenty of improvement to come for him. He's at $12 and can be backed.
Value: (8) Reloaded $10 & (10) Pancho $12
(8) Shared Ambition was a horror show first up over the mile. He should have won and he should still be undefeated since arriving in Australia. Nash Rawiller was caught asleep at the wheel and only got out when the race was all over. The step up to 2000m is a huge plus and they've wasted no time replacing Nash with JMac. Wet ground no issue and he looks the best bet of the day to me as he's bound for better races than this. (2) The Chosen One is the ride Nash picks up. He's a Kiwi who ran 3rd over the mile in New Zealand first up and he's won over this track and distance previously. Has to be respected. (9) Supernova has no shortage of talent and he tends to go very well first up from a spell. He's been gelded and comes to this race fresh with the winkers on for the first time. He's won on heavy ground previously so he's one at double figures to include. (3) Eastender should be peaking third up and hit the line well last start.
(8) Shared Ambition
$2.75
Waller has three in the race here and I could make a case for all three. (4) Another Dollar was beaten 7L first up but tends to improve sharply second up. Has run well on soft ground previously. (7) Savacool has placed in five of her six starts at this distance and she also has a good second up record. Three of her career wins have been on soft ground so she gets conditions to suit and she gets in well with 53kg. (9) Gayatri has won two of his three first up runs, has a good record at the track and has won in the wet previously, so he has claims. It's a wide open race.
Also backing: (4) Another Dollar $19 & (9) Gayatri $21
