Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Royal Randwick on Saturday, October 28th.
We have a nine-race card to complement the Cox Plate meeting in Melbourne, with the track rated a Soft 7 currently and the rail in the True position.
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In Episode 6 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Randwick and Moonee Valley and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Friday and Saturday! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
We have comments and betting tips for every race on below, and you can see our Moonee Valley Preview & Betting Tips here!
ROYAL RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 10, Interlocuter
Best Value: Race 8, Mighty Luck EW
Race 1
Looks a nice city race for GROUNDBREAK here after two wins on the provincials. His last win was better than it looks on paper after travelling three-wide on the speed the entire race and still managing to pull away. Seems he’s heading in the right direction after initially failing to live up to the potential he showed early on. He placed on soft ground on debut so the track shouldn’t worry him. BULL MARKET didn’t have any luck first up at Canterbury so he can go well, while MEMENTO was only beaten 1.6L in a stronger race last start and has run 3rd in Group 3 company on soft ground. WARRANTY comes off a dominant win in a Kembla maiden and finds a reasonable race to make the next step.
TIP: Groundbreak
Race 2
No real knock on the favourite I AM SERIOUS here but I’m keen to take her on with two at good prices. The Chris Waller-trained mare began her career with some dominant wins in the bush before transferring to the city. She placed in her first two starts this prep before breaking through for a midweek city win last start. Draws well and down on the minimum weight, she should be thereabouts again, but this is a harder race. I’m very keen to back both AWOKE and JUST DREAMING, who are both at $8 currently. AWOKE is another Waller-trained mare and if anything, she’s got a class edge on I Am Serious. She’s racing really well this prep. She beat The Pharaoh first up, ran 2nd to the smart Philosophy second up, had excuses when caught wide with 61kg third up, and her last start was a complete forgive run after she nearly fell in the straight. She drops from 60kg to 56.5kg here, draws well and she’s undefeated from three starts on soft tracks! Think she’s a huge chance here. JUST DREAMING is second up here after a luckless first up run when she was caught four-wide the trip and finished back in the field. She draws barrier 1 today and she is undefeated from two starts when second up. Additionally, she’s never missed the top two from three starts at the distance and she’s won on wet ground before so she is very well suited here. Very keen to back her as well at the $8 on offer.
TIP: Awoke / Just Dreaming
Race 3
I could make a claim for most of the runners in this field. TACTICAL ADVANTAGE is the best horse in the race on exposed form. He is first up here and carries the big weight. He’s won two from three at the track and has won his only start over the track and distance, which was also on a soft track. ACCEPTED is a former Hong Kong horse who had his first start in Australia last start. He never saw daylight at any stage when beaten 1.5L behind Grand Condor with 63kg on his back! He’s won two from four when second up, has finished in the top two in both starts on soft ground, and has a respectable record at the distance. Only 60kg today but draws wide. I THOUGHT SO is third up and back to the 1000m. Was only narrowly beaten last start and has drawn well here. Will appreciate the wet ground and rates well. SUPER MAXI returns to Sydney after failing last start in Melbourne. Third up here which is when he won his only race last prep. That was also over 1000m on wet ground, so based on that evidence he must go close today at good odds. FICKLE FOLLY won first up in the bush on heavy ground but has performed well in the city before. She’s never missed the top two when second up, and has never missed the top two from four starts at the distance. MACHINEGUN JUBS ditched the rider at the start a week or two ago. Technically he is first up today, and he’s never finished outside the top two when first up. Good record at the distance and has won three from four on soft ground.
TIP: Tactical Advantage / Super Maxi EW
Race 4
Looks a really open edition of the Highway Handicap so I’ll just be backing the one horse at big odds which should appreciate the wet track. I speak of SOVEREINAIRE who has had an ordinary campaign but has two wins and two placings from four starts on soft ground. He was luckless in the Highway Handicap three weeks ago when he drew barrier 1 and only got clear late. He was beaten 2.3L, just one length behind DIA DE REYES, yet he’s $17 and Dia De Reyes is $4.40. Dia De Reyes has also been unplaced in two starts on wet ground, so the price discrepancy is wrong. Glyn Schofield takes the ride on Sovereignaire and I think he’ll run boldly at the big odds. READY FOR DANGER comes off a 6L win at Murwillumbah and has won on soft ground before so should be thereabouts. HOT MONEY can go well but needs luck from the wide barrier.
TIP: Sovereignaire EW
Race 5
This is an ugly race. I’ve got the favourite STONEBROOK on top but I think the price is barely touchable at $1.95. This is a much stronger race than what he’s been facing at Canterbury in his last two starts, but he does map to get a very soft lead here and he’s won on soft ground. The lack of competition for the lead means they might struggle to run him down so I think he will be hard to beat, but he’s at rock bottom odds. PELORUS JACK is the best horse in the race but he’s first up with a 3kg apprentice on board so that makes me think he might just be going around for a barrier trial. If he gets market support before the jump then I may be wrong. PASSAGE OF TIME is third up and comes out of a reasonably good midweek race last start. He got the run of the race on that occasion and still couldn’t win so he needs to improve but he has won twice on heavy ground so looks suited by conditions. HIGH MIST will also appreciate the wet track.
TIP: Stonebrook
Race 6
Two horses I’m interested in here. The first is REDOUBLE who was backed off the map first up at Randwick when run down late by CHALK who also races again here. Get a 1kg weight swing on Chalk, but more importantly, draws barrier 4 as opposed to Chalk in barrier 10. Has won on soft ground before and should be improved with that run under the belt. Taking the $5 on offer. I’ll also be on TO EXCESS at $6.50. This horse has come back superbly and arguably should be undefeated in three runs this campaign. His record at 1200m is poor but he looks a different horse this prep after the 396-day spell. Was strong through the line last start and has won on heavy ground before so he could go on with it today. VIGILANCE is unbeaten but needs to improve because this is harder than the races it won last prep. ZUMBELINA is a dry-tracker and if the track remains as a soft 6 or 7 I’ll be happy to oppose her.
TIP: Redouble / To Excess EW
Race 7
Wide open race. Sticking with two Waller horses here. The first is LEAD CHOREOGRAPHER who looks to get Waller’s number one rider for the day, Glyn Schofield. Has finished in the top two at all three starts this prep and draws barrier 1 here which should allow him to box seat rather than leading. There looks to be a fair bit of speed on so I think he’ll be better suited with a trail. Has gone well on wet ground previously and has been scratched from Friday night to race here. 1/1 at the distance and should be thereabouts. MALMAS comes up from Melbourne and should relish a wet track. He won by 7L in Melbourne last prep on heavy ground over this distance. Third up here, second run at 2000m this prep, wet track and a slight gear change to stop him from over-racing. Lightly weighted and could be a smokey at double figure odds. I was very keen to have something on LAST WISH as mentioned on the podcast but now that the track is wet I’ll likely avoid him. His third up record is terrific and his last run put the writing on the wall for a big run today but his wet track form is poor and all his third up victories have come on firm ground.
TIP: Lead Choreographer / Malmas EW
Race 8
Very happy to take on SIR PLUSH here on the soft track. Very keen to back MIGHTY LUCKY each way at $10. He’s run 2nd in his past two starts to Washington Heights and then Sir Plush last start. Gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Sir Plush and comes up with a peach of a barrier here. Goes well on soft ground unlike Sir Plush and I expect him to run another big race. Looks a good each way bet. SUPPLY AND DEMAND is first up over 1400m which is short of his best but he’s got a good record first up, a good record at the distance and a terrific record on soft ground. Bolted in to win a recent trial by 4L and looks to have come back really well so he looks a good each way bet, and MAN OF HIS WORD is another to include at double figure odds.
TIP: Mighty Lucky EW (Best Value)
Race 9
Best bet of the day here with INTERLOCUTER. This horse is flying and is technically undefeated this prep (lost first up on protest). He’s only going to keep improving as he gets up in distance so the step up to 1800m is ideal and the barrier should see him get a perfect run in the race. Bolted in last start and I expect him to simply be too good here. The only slight query is this is his first run on a wet track, but he has won a trial on soft ground previously. Very keen at the $1.90.
TIP: Interlocuter (Best Bet)
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
