The Raiders get a great chance to bounce back from their Round 22 loss to the Knights, as they host the bumbling Tigers on Sunday afternoon to close out Round 23. The Raiders will be desperate to snap a 2-game losing streak in front of their home fans, with a loss here severely hurting their chances of making the top 8.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to check out our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers
GIO Stadium, Sunday 6th August, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Raiders were beaten by a far superior Knights’ outfit last week, and it was made all the more concerning given they were at home. The Knights dominated the Raiders through the middle, running for 550 metres more than the Raiders, with the vaunted Raiders middle forwards made to look second rate. 16 errors and 42 missed tackles capped off one of the poorer performances by the Raiders all season, with coach Ricky Stuart surely having torn strips off his players during the week.
The Tigers lost their 8th straight last weekend, as they went down 32-18 to a Rabbitohs side that welcomed back Latrell Mitchell last weekend. The Tigers actually created several chances, making 7 line-breaks in the match, however only completing at 69% against a side as good as the Rabbitohs, was never getting the job done. Will be hoping to be competitive against a Raiders team sputtering towards the finals.
The Raiders opened massive 14.5-point favourites, prior to being dominated last Sunday afternoon by the Knights. After the insipid display by the Raiders, the books got a little scared, dropping the number to Raiders -11.5 when the matchup re-opened on Monday morning. Money has still come in on the Tigers, with the spread currently sitting at 10.5 at most books. My fair is Raiders by 11/11.5, so I see no value whatsoever in the line as it currently sits.
Whilst there may be no value based on my numbers, situationally there is definitely a case to be made to bet the Tigers with the start. The Tigers cover at a 52.9% clip as underdogs, however the glaring statistic to look at here is the Raiders when they are favourites. As favourites, the Raiders are just 2-10 at covering the spread, good for just a 16.7% covering rate. With the Tigers still available at +12.5 at some books, this and a Raiders (1-12) are considerations.
The total in the game opened 46.5, and it hasn’t changed all week, with a slight amount of money seemingly coming in on the under, with the number juiced slightly towards the under. My fair for the matchup is 43.5, so I do see some value in the under in this matchup. In the pairs previous meeting in round 14, the total closed 42.5, with the game eventually landing on 39, with the Raiders winning 20-19. I also like a Tigers under here, and it pays to shop around, especially if you can find an 18.5.
So, some nice value here. We were burnt last week when we bet the Raiders (1-12), but I’ll go back to the well as the value is greater than a Tigers +12.5, as I don’t believe the Tigers can get the win. Also, some value in the under, however we will take that in the Same Game Multi.
Canberra Raiders (1-12)
$3.25 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Under 46.5 Points – Outlined above in main narrative.
Raiders to Win – As above. The Raiders should be too good in the end.
M Timoko (1+ Try) – Timoko will be attacking the poor Tigers’ left side defence, and the strong running centre should get his 9th try of the season.
SGM Odds: $6.20 at Picklebet
