The concluding game in NRL Round 21 will take place down in Canberra with the Raiders hosting the Rabbitohs. Both sides are on equal competition points (18) and are two wins adrift of the Top 8. They will want to perform well to keep their (unrealistic) Finals hopes alive for another few weeks. It sets the stage for an exciting contest with plenty to play for. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at how this match will play out, with the aim of finishing your weekend off on a winning note.
2024 NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
GIO Stadium – Sunday 28th July – 6:15pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Raiders kept their Finals chances alive with a narrow 20-18 win over the Warriors at home. Despite scoring fewer tries (3 vs 4), the poor goal kicking from their opponents allowed the home side to steal victory. It was a strong start for the Raiders, executing well in the first half and leading 14-6 at the break. They absorbed plenty of pressure in the second half; overall for the game they had an 80% completion rate with just a 49% share of possession. They made fewer total metres (averaged 9.6m per carry), had more PCM’s and made only 3 line breaks. They were better defensively, missing just 20 tackles and conceding 5 line breaks.
The Rabbitohs would benefit from improving their defensive structure. While successful 42-28 over the Tigers, they are still conceding too many points to opponents. This was another case whereby they were the better team, probably didn’t get out of 2nd gear against an inferior opponent but still gave them a chance at victory via their own poor execution. Missing 36 tackles, conceding 6 line breaks and allowing 9.9m per carry further highlights this. There were positives though; they averaged 9.6m per carry, made more PCM’s and had 7 line breaks. They will want to improve upon the 12 errors they committed but winning form will give them confidence to perform well in this match.
Match Prediction
The Raiders are listed as favourites for this game ($1.62 vs $2.30), with many believing that they are the better team. They have won 4 of the past 5 matches against the Rabbitohs and have a superior record at home (58% vs Rabbitohs 50%). Despite averaging fewer points in attack across the season (19ppg vs 22ppg), the Raiders defensive record is a minor point of difference (25ppg vs 28ppg); it is not a case of the Raiders being successful in this area but rather the Rabbitohs having a poor defensive structure.
While there are many factors indicating that the home side should be successful, this game will be far closer that the odds are suggesting. The season averages on both sides of the ball balance one another out; the Raiders have scored 20 or more points just three times since Magic Round. While defeating the Warriors, that result could’ve easily gone the other way. The returning players for the Raiders strengthened their team last week and they will be better for that match and should positively impact their team this week. The omission of both Murray and Mitchell for the Rabbitohs hurts their cause and other key players must step up for them. All eyes will be on Wighton and how he performs against his former club.
The Raiders should win this game, but it will be far closer than most think; the Rabbitohs are also a chance of causing an upset based both on their talent and the inconsistency of their opponents. Based on this and the fact that of their past 5 matches the average winning margin is 8.6 points (with 3 games decided by 7 points or less), invest around either team winning this contest within that margin.
Either Team by 8 Points or Less
$2.30 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The average points in the past 5 matches between these two sides is 42.6 points. The high total on offer is somewhat surprising given their struggle to score points. Their desperation should tighten up their defence too. Timoko has only scored 3 tries this season but is an option given the Rabbitohs poor defence on the edge. The same goes for Johnston; he is dynamic on the edge and is regaining his best form, scoring 8 tries for the Rabbitohs.
Total Points Under 50.5
Timoko & Johnston to Score
SGM Odds: $13 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
