NRL Super Saturday begins in Gosford this weekend with the Rabbitohs choosing to take their game against the Tigers north. The Rabbitohs need a perfect finish to the season and some good luck to be a chance of making the Top 8 and this game provides the perfect starting point. The Tigers are stuck to the bottom of the competition ladder and will be desperate to halt their run towards another wooden spoon. This makes for an intriguing match and Before You Bet is here to preview the action ahead, with the aim of finding a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
2024 NRL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers
Industree Group Stadium – Saturday 20th July – 3pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Rabbitohs took the field minus some key personnel last week against the Dolphins and were defeated 36-28. Always expected to struggle as outsiders, the Rabbitohs competed well over the 80 minutes. Unfortunately, their remaining stars didn’t (consistently) impact the match. With a greater share of possession (51%) and a high completion rate (89%), they looked good at different points of this match. The fact that they made 8.4m per carry, created 8 line breaks and missed just 25 tackles indicates this. It was a matter of execution at key stages which let them down.
The Tigers dropped to the bottom of the NRL Power Rankings following a 58-6 defeat to the Sharks. With hopes high that this team could push their opponents, they were comprehensively outplayed in every area. The statistics make for ugly viewing; with just 45% possession they completed at 74%, made just 7.2m per carry, had only 2 line breaks and missed 42 tackles, perfectly reflecting the comments made by coach Marshall at the end of the match. Despite appearing to play to a higher standard this season, similar performances (and efforts) will not be tolerated for much longer. The attention is back on this underperforming team, and they desperately need a victory to boost the confidence within this team.
Match Prediction
Murray has been ruled out of this clash following Origin after he received a suspension. That news has done little to impact the odds, with the Rabbitohs still listed as strong favourites ($1.36 vs $3.20). That has been offset somewhat with the possible withdrawal of Koroisau; he has been named in the reserves after picking up an injury last week. They are a different team without him in their line-up. Not only do they lose their captain and quality play maker, but they are also now without a competitive edge on both sides of the ball.
The Rabbitohs appear to be the stronger team in most areas, but the Tigers should improve upon last week. If they are to be believed as a different team in previous seasons, they would want to tighten up their defence as a minimum. The Rabbitohs have been poor this season conceding points, but the Tigers are worse (28ppg vs 29ppg). The discrepancy in attacking ability (Rabbitohs 21ppg vs Tigers 17ppg) means that the home side is deserving of favouritism. The only thing working against them is their inferior record at this ground (44% vs 57%). Otherwise, they have won 7 of the past 8 matches against the Tigers and haven’t lost as the home team against them since Round 1, 2017.
Stranger things have happened this season, but it would be surprising to see them get the better of a strong opponent. Fact: the Rabbitohs 2024 Finals hopes are hanging by a thread, and they need this victory. If they give up this opportunity, they do not deserve to progress past Round 27 of the regular season. With the average margin of victory in their past 5 games sitting at 15.4 points, the Rabbitohs should cover the line (9.5) which inflates the chances of the Tigers.
Rabbitohs -9.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
You only must read above to see that both teams concede a high number of points. This game should be no different as each find’s freedom in a weaker defensive line. Johnston has been playing well lately and despite only scoring 6 tries this season, he can easily find momentum; he scored a double in the Rabbitohs last match. Wighton has scored 5 tries this season, with the move to 5/8 opening far more opportunities.
Total Points Over 51.5
Johnston 2+ tries
Wighton to Score
SGM Odds: $12 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
