Round 9 in the NRL begins on Thursday night at Homebush with the Rabbitohs hosting the Panthers. With just 1 win to their name after 7 matches, things are getting desperate at Redfern for the Rabbitohs. Time is running out for them to gather momentum and rescue their season. It will be a challenge against a team like the Panthers, who appear to be getting back to their best. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action ahead.
2024 NRL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers
Accor Stadium – Thursday 2nd May – 7:50pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Rabbitohs season plunged further into chaos with their 54-20 loss to the Storm in Melbourne. The match was all but over at HT with the visitors trailing 32-4. A minor fightback in the second half was in vain; the Storm were the superior team in all areas of the contest, with the Rabbitohs, lacking on field talent, completely outplayed. They tried hard, evident in their 85% completion rate (season high) but they were let down by making fewer metres, conceding 9 line breaks (made 5) and missing 42 tackles.
The Panthers welcomed Nathan Cleary back as they travelled north to Townsville to face the Cowboys. It was a timely return for their playmaker, and he played a key part in their 26-20 victory. The final score highlighted some things but doesn’t tell the full story. The Panthers lead 18-4 at HT and were controlling the match until a late Cowboys fightback narrowed their margin of victory. Such is the class of the Panthers, they produced some of their best form with just 45% possession and a 78% completion rate. They also made fewer metres, fewer line breaks and missed 47 tackles. Even on their ‘off’ nights, they are a difficult team to stop. It makes the task of winning this game increasingly difficult for the Rabbitohs.
Match Prediction
The complexion of this game took a dramatic turn on Tuesday night with news breaking that Demetriou was sacked at coach of Souths. While rumoured for a while, the timing is surprising given they face the Panthers this week. Even if he was still at the helm, they would still be outsiders. Their price has drifted further ($6 vs $1.13) and that is relevant based on their season performances to date.
With just one win to their name, the Rabbitohs average the second fewest points in attack (16ppg) and concede the most in defence (35ppg). Compared to the Panthers attack (21ppg) and defence (16ppg), it was always going to be a difficult task. The Rabbitohs have also won just 2 of the past 12 games between these two sides. Even the most passionate supporter would likely concede that a win in this match is unlikely. They are still missing a host of quality players too and look outclassed in most areas. News that they have recruited a halfback from England will likely create further doubt in the halves.
Sometimes, a change of coach can spark a change in the attitude of the players, but more will be needed from the home side before they are able to match it with a team like the Rabbitohs. The decision in this game will instead come down to ‘how much’ the Panthers win by. Scoring averages for the season and recent history suggests that a 13+ margin is likely. The line (15.5) has been set high, so it is preferred to ‘play it safe’ and increase your investment on a smaller dividend.
Panthers 13+
$1.65 (3.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The average total points in the past 5 matches sits at 38.8ppg, but with the Rabbitohs horrible defensive record, this match should go past such a result. Crichton has scored 4 tries in the past 2 games and in his absence, Taylan May is given a great opportunity to continue his dominance on the edge. As for Turuva, recent news of his impending departure from the club saw him miss last week. He is still the leading Panthers try scorer this season (well ahead with 8) and he will want to make a statement with a strong performance here.
Total Points Over 42.5
May to Score
Turuva to Score
SGM Odds: $6.50 at Ladbrokes
