The Rabbitohs and Dragons kick things off on Saturday afternoon, with the Rabbitohs taking their home game to Cairns. With many anticipating the Rabbitohs to look much improved with the return of Latrell Mitchell, concerns would have to be rising in Redfern after the loss last week to the Sharks. Can the Bunnies get back on track, or will the Dragons push the Rabbitohs out of the top 8?
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our NRL betting tips, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 24 Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Barlow Park, Saturday 12th August, 3:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Rabbitohs headed west to take on the Sharks in Perth, where they were dominated by a team struggling of late. The Sharks scored 4 unanswered tries in the opening hour to lead 26-0, before 3 late tries flattered the Rabbitohs, eventually going down 26-16. Souths have now won just 3 of their past 10, and are dangerously close to being outside the top 8. 44 missed tackles, 15 errors and 11 penalties conceded are huge areas of concern for Head Coach Andrew Demetriou, and I expect a much-improved performance this week.
The Dragons were unlucky not to get a win last week, as they led the Eels 20-10 with 20 minutes remaining. Some contentious calls and three tries in 10 minutes for the Eels led to a Dragons loss, however they have appeared more competitive since their bye in round 20.
Match Preview
The Rabbitohs opened massive 19.5-point favourites, and up to this point the number hasn’t moved. At this point, this is the 4th largest spread this season, and despite me believing the number is too large, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see the spread increase as the week goes on, given the market love for the Rabbitohs. For what it’s worth, I make the number Rabbitohs -14.5, and believe there’s good value in the Dragons with a 3 converted try start. The Rabbitohs have struggled covering spreads this season as favourites, hitting at just a 33.3% clip (6/18).
The total is high in this game, opening at 50.5 and staying there in the early part of this week. I make a fair 48.5, showing slight value on the under, however given the Dragons propensity at playing overs, I’ll steer clear of the total in this one.
The Dragons have managed to win two in a row against the Rabbitohs, so won’t be overawed by playing the Bunnies. It must be noted, the Dragons beat the Rabbitohs 36-30 in round 15, when the Bunnies were missing their Origin stars. I don’t see the Dragons winning here, however covering the line is a distinct chance.
The other reason I like the Dragons to cover is the amount of travel the Rabbitohs have been doing of late. Since their bye in round 20, the Rabbitohs have travelled to the Sunshine Coast, Tamworth, Perth, and now Cairns. They have every right to be lethargic, and the Dragons should be able to take advantage and keep this close.
Dragons +19.5
$1.92 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Dragons (+24.5) – See above, get an extra converted try with this leg.
Campbell Graham (1+ try) – Graham will be attacking the woeful Dragons left edge defence, and despite the Rabbitohs preferring to go left, they are smart enough to attack the weakness of the Dragons enough here to get Graham a try.
Mikaele Ravalawa (1+ try) – Ravalawa had a hat-trick last week against the Eels, and attacking the weaker left side of the Rabbitohs defence seems a good idea here for the tied 4th most prolific try scorer this season.
SGM Odds: $6.75 at Picklebet
