The winners of the last three NRL Premierships clash in a pivotal Round 23 clash on Friday night, as the Storm look to avenge their round 18 home loss to the Panthers. The Panthers are battling it out with the Broncos for the Minor Premiership, and any loss at this point of the season could have disastrous consequences. A huge matchup, I can’t wait.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to check out our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, make sure to check out Pickebet's ‘NRL First Try Scorer’ Special. Place a first try scorer bet on the Panthers vs Storm match and if your player scores the first or second try, you’ll get paid out as a winner! Head over to Picklebet for the full terms and conditions.
NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm
BlueBet Stadium, Friday 4th August, 8:00pm (AEST)
The Panthers appeared to be in the midst of an opposed training session last Saturday night, as they cruised to a 28-0 home victory over the Sharks. Their defence smothered the attack of the Sharks, and the result was never really in doubt. Whilst they weren’t at their clinical best in attack, I believe they had one eye on their upcoming clash with the Storm, and didn’t want to give too much away to what could potentially be their Grand Final opponents in two months’ time.
The Storm were probably the most impressive team in round 22, as they trounced an Eels side that was playing for their season. Despite conceding an early try, the Storm took no time to get on top of the Eels, running in 6 tries to 1 over the following 60 minutes, to easily dispatch a team they’ve historically had trouble with. A huge chance to make a massive statement on the eve of the finals this week, let’s see how the Storm go.
The Panthers opened 10.5-point favourites on the lookahead line prior to last weekend’s games finishing, with punters quickly taking the points with the Storm, with the line now sitting at Panthers -9.5 at home. The Storm closed 2.5-point favourites at home just 5 weeks ago against the Panthers, however the Panthers were without their superstar halfback Nathan Cleary. The Storm started superbly in that game, leading 14-0 after 26 minutes, in a performance that was the most dominant we’ve seen over this Panthers team for years. It all came crashing down, as the superbly fit Panthers finished the first half with a flurry, running away 34-16 winners.
I make this Panthers -9.5, so I don’t really see a lot of value in the spread here. As for the total, it opened 40.5 and remains 40.5. Five weeks ago, the number closed 38.5, with the total flying over as the Panthers won 34-16. These teams have been two of the biggest ‘unders’ teams all season, with the Storm and Panthers both playing 63.2% unders, good for equal 2nd most unders in the NRL. It was therefore surprising when the first matchup easily went over.
I make a fair total just 37.5, and am going to take advantage of the market bumping up the total between these two teams by 2 points since their recent meeting. Surely this game will have more of a finals feel, with top 4 ramifications for both teams, and with the matchup being this close to the finals, will mean so much to both.
Under 40.5 Total Points
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Panthers to Win – Although I believe the Storm will be in this contest for longer than the round 18 loss at home, I still see the Panthers getting the job done at home, with a leg to prop up that price.
Brian To’o (1+ Try) – To’o has traditionally struggled against the Storm, but with 7 tries in his past 5 games, he is finding ways to get across the line. Since Origin this guy has gone from strength to strength, and I love watching him play. Who doesn’t love Bizza!
Harry Grant (1+ Try) – With 8 tries this season, Grant fits the mould for a player to get across the line against the Panthers. He’s always scheming in the red zone, and with the Panthers ability to repel attack after attack, if the Storm can get enough possession on the goal line, expect Grant to be the one to manage to get over the line.
SGM Odds: $11 at Picklebet
