Rounding out Friday night in the NRL is the battle of the west, as the Eels look to continue their impressive start to the season, as they take on the Panthers at BlueBet Stadium. After going down twice to the Eels last season, the Panthers need a win here to regain their confidence, after a round 1 loss to the Storm.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
NRL Round 2 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Parramatta Eels
BlueBet Stadium, Friday 15th March, 8:05pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Eels took on the Bulldogs in round 1, and never looked troubled as they ran out 26-8 winners. The Eels led 20-0 after 65 minutes, before allowing two late consolation tries to the Bulldogs. Overall, the Eels looked solid defensively, whilst playing some enterprising attacking football. Despite throwing the ball around, they had tremendous ball control, completing 41 of 46 sets (89%), something they had trouble with last year. They also outgained the Bulldogs by over 500m, and came out of the game relatively unscathed, despite injury concerns to Mitch Moses (groin) and Dylan Brown (eye socket). Both have been named this week and are expected to play.
As for the Panthers, they looked about as good as they have in almost all aspects of the game, however, were unable to capitalize on their dominance in the redzone, scoring zero points against a dogged Storm defence. Double digit errors (12) would have also been a major concern for Ivan Cleary, however their defence looked as solid as ever, conceding just one try to a quality Storm attack. Expect improvement in execution this week, however I don’t believe we will see the Panthers best for another couple of weeks.
Match Preview
The Eels looked by far the better team between these two sides in week 1. Of course, the opposition had a big part to play, however I am not expecting to see a massive improvement in attack from the Panthers. It took them until round 5 last season to score more than 20 points, and I believe the Eels’ defence looked solid enough last week to not allow this Panthers attack to suddenly look more cohesive. As for the Eels, they dominated against the Bulldogs, and could have scored more points in my opinion. Their completion rate was impressive, and something coach Brad Arthur would have been incredibly pleased with.
The Panthers opened 7.5-point home favourites against their western Sydney rivals, with the number not moving much during the week. This is a decent correction by the market, as if this game happened last week, the number would have been over 10. It will be interesting to see if the market has moved too far on this one, based off just the one game.
The total opened 36.5 and has stuck around the 35.5/36.5 all week. Despite the total being so low, under is the only play I would consider here. Both teams looked great defensively last week, whilst the Panthers offense struggled mightily. If these teams met mid-season, I’d expect the total to be around 41.5, but at this point 36.5 seems like the correct total. I’d only bet under, but these teams have shown in the past they can turn these derbies into high scoring affairs.
My favourite play in this game is the Panthers team total going under. Depending on where you bet, all the numbers are over 18.5, which is the cut-off for me. Anything over the 18.5 is a play, and I feel pretty good about it. The Panthers team that I’ve seen in the World Club Challenge, and round 1 of the NRL season, doesn’t look capable of scoring 20 points, and I feel confident the under is the play here. I also like the Eels at the ML for more value.
Panthers (team total) under 20.5
$1.87 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Eels ML – As outlined above, I believe the Eels ML is good value. The Panthers will struggle to score, and if the Eels can impress once again with their completion rate, I like them to win.
Under 43.5 points – I’m contemplating betting the under 36.5, and this bet adds another try and field goal to the total for safety.
Bailey Simonsson (1+ try) – The Panthers’ right side conceded 52% of all tries last season and conceded their only try last week. The Eels’ left edge is dangerous, and I like Simonsson to add to his try from last week.
SGM Odds: $9.88 at Neds
