Group 1 Kingsford-Smith Cup & Queensland Oaks Betting Preview & Tips

Doomben hosts two Group 1’s this Saturday, May 26^th. Race 7 sees the sprinters line up over 1350m in the Group 1 Kingsford-Smith Cup and they will be followed by the three-year-old fillies doing battle in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks in Race 8. We’ve previewed both races below!

Doomben Race 7 – Group 1 Kingsford-Smith Cup – 1350m

TRENDS

Favourites have a fairly poor record in this race. The last favourite to win was the great Black Caviar back in 2011 and before her, Apache Cat in 2008. Both started deep into the red. Since Black Caviar’s victory, the winners have been priced at $7.50, $12, $21, $26, $7 and $11. Le Romain is the current favourite at $3.50. There’s no specific lead up race that stands out for this race and while no horse has won from a double-digit barrier since 2005, only nine of those 13 races had 10 or more starters. That’s the case again today following two scratchings, which leaves us with nine runners.

TEMPO

The speedmap looks fairly simple here in terms of the frontrunners. (6) Monsieur Gustave will push forward to lead comfortably. (4) Most Important will be right up on the speed with him, with (9) English trailing on the rail behind the leader. (8) Endless Drama can be prominent from barrier 3, with (2) Le Romain likely to be just behind him from barrier 4. (1) Impending will be ridden quiet and I expect similar tactics for both (10) Volpe Veloce and (11) Champagne Cuddles. The only horse with some sort of query is (3) Care To Think who will start from the widest barrier. Do they try to be positive and sit outside the leader or do they try and find cover? They won’t want to be caught wide.

KEY CHANCES

I’m with the Godolphin runner (1) Impending here, who returns to the scene of his win in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap this time last year. He’s returned with two good performances this campaign, winning first up over 1200m when likely underdone, before being beaten a nose by English in the Doomben 10,000 last start. He comes into this third up and up to the 1350m. I think he’ll be suited by the track being just a touch firmer than it was in the 10,000 last start, provided not too much rain falls throughout the day. The speed map finds him in an awkward position near the tail of the field and the lack of genuine tempo here is a negative for him, but I think he’s good enough to round them up either way and I’ll be happy to take around $5 available.

(2) Le Romain has been huge in his past two starts. He was beaten a nose by Trapeze Artist in the All Aged Stakes over 1400m last month, before being caught three-wide in the Doomben 10,000 last start when beaten 0.4L by English and Impending. He’ll start from barrier 4 today which will surely see him get a sweet run in midfield and with even luck he’ll be fighting out the finish.

(9) English broke through for a second Group 1 win in the Doomben 10,000 last start, settling behind the leaders from barrier 1 before shooting up the inside to win by a nose. She’ll basically be trying to do the same thing from the same barrier today. My query is if she’ll go as well on a track that’s likely to be a touch firmer than what she won on last start. I think she’s better on rain-affected going and her two best runs this campaign (The Galaxy & Doomben 10,000) certainly back that theory up.

The clear value in the race for mine is (8) Endless Drama for the Waller stable, who are deadest flying. He’s probably just a tier below the best sprinter/milers in the country, but he brings genuine Group 1 form to today’s race and has trialled particularly well since his last start. His victory three starts ago was over Global Glamour and Comin’ Through – both Group 1 winners – and his two starts since then have been in races won by Happy Clapper. Should get a great run from the barrier and at $19 he should be included in exotics.

(3) Care To Think didn’t have much go right first up but gets the man of the moment on board today – James McDonald. The barrier makes things tricky for him. I suspect (10) Volpe Veloce will be a bit below the level required to win this. (11) Champagne Cuddles is the lone three-year-old in the field and three-year-old’s do have a good record in this race. She comes off a big win in the Gold Coast Guineas first up, but she will need to be very good to beat some of these horses given where she’s likely to find herself in the run. I’ll take her on today.

Backing (1) Impending with something small on (8) Endless Drama.

SELECTIONS

1^st (1) IMPENDING
2^nd (8) ENDLESS DRAMA
3^rd (2) LE ROMAIN
4^th (11) CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES

Doomben Race 8 – Group 1 Queensland Oaks – 2200m

TRENDS

Favourites have saluted in four of the past 10 editions of this race, including last year when Egg Tart won at odds of $3. Only two winners in that 10-year period have been double-figure odds, so the market tends to have it fairly right. Barriers don’t seem to be particularly important here, with four of the past 10 winners starting from double-digit barriers (and a further two winners starting from barrier 9). The Group 3 The Roses has been the best lead up race to look to – won by Youngstar this year – but it’s interesting to note that the past three winners have come from different races, somewhat bucking the trend of the decade leading up to it.

TEMPO

There doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed on paper here and I expect it to be run at a moderate pace. These are three-year-old fillies and most stables/jockeys will be wanting to ensure their horse has every chance of running the trip, so will be happy to look for cover and go at a steady pace. The obvious leader looks to be (11) Terra Sancta, but she could be joined by one of the Waller runners (13) Miss Shanti from barrier 1. Connections advised she would be ridden to lead last start, but she ended up settling back in the field. I suspect today they might kick up from the inside to be on speed. Also expect Waterhouse/Bott’s (8) Joyfilly Ours to go forward and if Terra Sancta doesn’t lead then Joyfilly Ours probably will.

KEY CHANCES

Chris Waller has five of the 16 runners here and it’s always hard to know which one is actually the stable’s best chance. With that said, there’s three main chances I’ll be playing around here and I’ll be focusing on the top end of the market, as has been the pattern in the past decade or so.

(3) Youngstar comes up the $3.30 favourite after three straight victories. She was very impressive at Newcastle two starts ago and followed that with a comfortable win in the Group 2 The Roses over 2000m here last start. She started from barrier 4 on that occasion and will start from the same barrier today with Kerrin McEvoy retaining the ride. She looks a top chance again; my only query would be whether she’s better on soft ground? I’ll be saving on her but there’s two others I’d prefer to be backing here.

Her stablemate (4) Savacool is one of those at $7. She started a $5 in the Group 1 Australasian Oaks in Adelaide last start but was given a horrible ride which ended any chance she had. She was caught three-wide without cover, pressed forward to race up on the speed and understandably faded in the straight. Completely forget that run and assess her on what she had shown before that, but also keep in mind the fact she was $6.50 into $5 to win that race in Adelaide. James McDonald takes over the ride today and as mentioned in above, the wide barrier shouldn’t be any concern here. I’d be surprised if she started $7 come jump time.

(2) Sheezdashing ran 2^nd to Savacool in Melbourne three starts ago and followed that with two more 2nds, including last start in the Australasian Oaks in Adelaide. We know the form from the Australasian Oaks stands up for this race – Egg Tart won both races last year, while Kenedna ran 2^nd in Adelaide and an unlucky 4^th in this race. I’d love to see her a touch closer from the barrier but given they ended up last from barrier 6 last start, it’s fair to assume she’ll be a long way back once again. Regardless, she’s knocking on the door for a win. She might just find one too good again but at $8.50 I’ll be backing her again.

I’ll be betting around (1) Aloisia once again, as I have all preparation. She just hasn’t found any sort of rhythm this prep and although she’s run well in a couple of her races (including last start), I’d prefer to be with horses that I know are at the top of their game.

(5) Another Dollar is another from the Waller camp and she ran 2^nd to Youngstar in The Roses last start. She was very brave after being caught wide early and being made to work to the lead, before being beaten a length on the line. Drawn softly in barrier 2 today and has never missed a place in her career, so she’ll be right there at the end.

The value in the race could be (9) Tinkermosa for John Sargent, who is probably the best trainer of three-year-old staying fillies in the country. She’s finished in the top two in all four starts this prep and there’s no doubt she’ll be right at her top for her grand final here. She was beaten by Almighty Crown in Sydney last start and that’s probably a better form reference than what it may appear. Could be worth including at $18.

SELECTIONS

1^st – (4) SAVACOOL
2^nd – (2) SHEEZDASHING
3^rd – (3) YOUNGSTAR
4^th – (9) TINKERMOSA