The AFLW premiership race heats up this Saturday as Geelong, Sydney, Carlton and Hawthorn battle for the final two preliminary final spots, with the season on the line for every side in the AFLW semi finals!
Geelong will be desperate to bounce back after surrendering a 28-point lead in a heartbreaking qualifying final defeat to Melbourne, but a confident Sydney outfit stands in their way following an impressive elimination final victory over the Western Bulldogs. Later in the evening, Carlton return to Ikon Park looking to rediscover their attacking spark after being comprehensively beaten by North Melbourne, while Hawthorn arrive with momentum after knocking out Gold Coast.
With contrasting form lines, some intriguing midfield battles and plenty at stake, both contests promise to be fiercely fought. We've analysed the key matchups and betting markets to find our best AFLW Finals Week 2 betting tips.
AFLW Finals Week 2 Betting Tips
| Match |
Best Bet |
Odds |
| Geelong vs Sydney |
Geelong -20.5 |
$1.90 (1u) |
| Carlton vs Hawthorn |
Carlton -5.5 |
$1.90 (2u) |
Geelong vs Sydney
Saturday 14 November, 4:05pm AEDT | GMHBA Stadium
Geelong will be disappointed with how their qualifying final unfolded after surrendering a 28-point lead in the third quarter against Melbourne. The Cats looked to have the contest under control before the Demons fought their way back, eventually winning by four points. Georgie Prespakis was outstanding with 34 disposals, eight tackles and eight clearances, but Geelong struggled to maintain their advantage around the contest as the game progressed. They will need a much more consistent four-quarter performance this weekend, particularly against a Sydney side that thrives on applying pressure around stoppages.
Tanya Kennedy shapes as an important player for the Swans after an outstanding performance against the Western Bulldogs, recording 17 tackles and 16 disposals. She is expected to have another important defensive assignment, with Georgie Prespakis a likely matchup. However, the Cats have plenty of support around the contest through Nina Morrison, Amy McDonald and Mikayla Bowen. Sydney's ability to compete in the midfield will be crucial, especially given the size of Geelong's forward line. Jackie Parry, Aishling Moloney, Chloe Scheer and Chantal Mason provide several marking options, presenting a difficult matchup for the Swans' defence.
Sydney were impressive in their 29-point elimination final victory, recording a season-high pressure rating of 232, but this is a considerably tougher assignment. Geelong's forward-line depth should be a major advantage, particularly if they regain control of the clearances and give their forwards enough opportunities. The Cats also have the midfield depth to respond if Sydney manage to apply their usual pressure around the contest. Their qualifying final defeat was frustrating, but we expect a strong response. Geelong have the attacking options to win comfortably.
Best Bet
Geelong -20.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Carlton vs Hawthorn
Saturday 14 November, 7:15pm AEDT | Ikon Park
Carlton have plenty to improve after managing just one goal in their 36-point qualifying final defeat to North Melbourne. The Blues struggled to generate scoring opportunities and had difficulty maintaining possession against the reigning premiers. Their recent attacking output has also been a concern, averaging just 35.2 points per game from Round 9 onwards after recording 48.9 across the opening eight rounds. However, there is some encouragement heading into this weekend, with Claudia Whitfort returning after missing the qualifying final with a hamstring injury. Her inclusion should provide an important boost around the contest.
Hawthorn arrive after an impressive 18-point victory over Gold Coast, with Eliza West collecting 29 disposals and eight clearances. The Hawks also finished with a 36-possession advantage in uncontested possessions, demonstrating how effectively they were able to win the ball and spread across the ground. That is particularly relevant against Carlton, who have lost uncontested possession by an average of 25.2 across their past five matches. Hawthorn will look to exploit the same weakness again, using their pressure around the contest before spreading the ball and controlling possession.
However, Carlton have already beaten Hawthorn by 12 points at Ikon Park this season, winning 36-24 in Round 8. The Blues managed to secure that result despite losing the inside-50 count by 23, making better use of their opportunities in difficult, wet conditions. They will need to be much cleaner with their ball use this weekend, although Whitfort's return should help them compete more effectively around stoppages. Hawthorn will be difficult to contain if they reproduce their recent form, but we expect Carlton to produce a much-improved performance and do enough to cover the relatively modest line.
Best Bet
Carlton -5.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
