The Melbourne Cup Carnival continues at Flemington on Thursday with Crown Oaks Day, headlined by the $1 million Group 1 Crown Oaks for three-year-old fillies. The 2500m feature is the centrepiece of a nine-race program that also includes the Crown Red Roses Stakes and the traditional Subzero Handicap for grey horses.
Unbeaten filly Proxima Dea is our selection in the Oaks, while we have betting plays across several of the supporting races. Below you'll find our race-by-race analysis, best bets and suggested staking for Thursday's meeting.
The track is currently rated Good 4, with the rail out 6m for the entire circuit. Cloudy conditions and possible morning showers are forecast, so check the track rating and final scratchings before betting.
Flemington Racing Tips: Thursday, November 5th, 2026
| Race |
Best Bet |
Odds |
| Race 1 |
No bet |
— |
| Race 2 |
(14) Youre Not The King; (2) Keitel |
$2.45 (2.5 units); $17 (0.5 units) |
| Race 3 |
No bet |
— |
| Race 4 |
(2) Sass Appeal |
$1.70 (3 units) |
| Race 5 |
(7) Fiorenot |
$5.50 (1 unit) |
| Race 6 |
No bet |
— |
| Race 7 |
(3) Sequinned |
$1.85 (3 units) |
| Race 8 |
(1) Proxima Dea |
$2.35 (2 units) |
| Race 9 |
(1) Rey Magnerio |
$3.60 (2 units) |
Race 1 – TCL Trophy – 1700m (1:00pm AEDT)
(4) Autumn Slide is one of the class runners of the field but will have to contend with 60.5kg and barrier 17. She finished second at her first-up run in this same class after being held up at the top of the straight. She found the line strongly and the rise to 1700m looks nice.
(16) Spex has won twice and been placed in the other two this prep. She should roll forward from her middle gate to race somewhere on the speed which is her normal pattern. She looks a strong contender in the capacity field.
No bet
Race 2 – Sharp EIT Subzero Handicap – 1400m (1:35pm AEDT)
(14) Youre Not The King will hopefully be the king in the greys race, named after 1992 Melbourne Cup winner Subzero. The four-year-old gelding is prepared by Bjorn Baker and has won his past two starts, the latest being a Benchmark 72 Handicap at Warwick Farm. He rises in grade which is why he has just 53kg as regular jockey Rachel King takes the ride. From barrier two, he could lead or box seat behind them. Looks really well placed.
(2) Keitel was last seen running fourth at Doomben and the Queensland galloper was a Rockhampton winner three runs back, winning in impressive fashion. His sectionals are quite good and the $17 looks a big price.
Also Backing: (2) Keitel - $17 at Dabble (0.5u)
(14) Youre Not The King WIN
$2.45 (2.5 Units)
Race 3 – Channel 9 Chester Manifold Stakes – 1600m (2:10pm AEDT)
(4) Tavi Time is now third-up in his preparation and he is getting better with each run. A first-up sixth was followed by a third at Randwick in the Big Dance Wild Card. James McDonald picks up the ride from the inside gate and he should run well with the favourite likely to be scratched after racing on Melbourne Cup Day.
(10) Encap was runner up in the Filante Handicap last start, beaten narrowly by Anthracite. Despite a good barrier on paper, he will likely be back in the field. He can still run well in a competitive race.
No bet
Race 4 – Inglis Bracelet (QC) – 1600m (2:45pm AEDT)
(2) Sass Appeal looks well placed if she can handle the quick back-up from Saturday’s Empire Rose Stakes where she finished fourth behind Lady Shenandoah. She has been racing well this campaign with a second in the Stocks Stakes and fourth in the Tontonan Stakes. The smaller field should help her find the lead quicker and allow her to control the race.
(1) Fireball Miss won the Queensland Oaks in the winter and she has raced just once since then, finishing ninth, beaten 3.72 lengths in the Weekend Hussler Stakes. While this is short of her preferred distance, she has class and Ciaron Maher continues to just win races at will. Looks the main upset chance.
(2) Sass Appeal WIN
$1.70 (3 Units)
Race 5 – Sigma Trophy – 1800m (3:20pm AEDT)
(7) Fiorenot kickstarted his spring with victory at Caulfield in a Benchmark 84 Handicap as he held off a wall of horses chasing, with the first five across the line finishing under a length from one another. He then competed in the same class, finishing second behind Buccleuch. He should run well again and has won twice from four attempts at the track.
(9) Perisher was impressive winning at his Australian debut for Ciaron Maher and the former Irish galloper will love the rise in trip from 1500m to 1800m. If he shows any improvement second-up, he is going to be very hard to beat, and the odds reflect that.
(7) Fiorenot WIN
$5.50 (1 Unit)
Race 6 – Cirka Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final – 1600m (3:55pm AEDT)
(4) Bel Mezyaan resumed at Bendigo with victory in the eighth heat of the Melbourne Cup Carnival Country series. This horse goes on top for me but with very little confidence as I think the race is a raffle. He is very consistent, winning three times and placed another four from eight starts.
(13) Our Justify was the winner of the second heat at Bendigo. That was her second win in a row and she looks a strong contender in the final.
No bet
Race 7 – Crown Red Roses Stakes – 1100m (4:30pm AEDT)
(3) Sequinned has won three of her four starts this prep and the Godolphin filly looks extremely hard to beat in this event. She won easily last start at Caulfield, putting them away at the 200m mark with ease. To keep her ready, trainer Chris Waller has opted for a jump out down the Flemington straight. She just cruised under her own steam for second.
(2) Scintillation was almost my tip here but Sequinned just loves to win, so I have opted for her instead. Scintillation has good form and could test the favourite. She was second behind Natural Fling in the Quezette Stakes, third in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes and third in the Champagne Stakes.
(3) Sequinned WIN
$1.85 (3 Units)
Race 8 – Crown Oaks Group 1 – 2500m (5:10pm AEDT)
(1) Proxima Dea is unbeaten in five starts and it is hard to go against this filly who has dominated in Sydney. She won the Spring Champion Stakes easily, beating Stormy Marco who has since won the Victoria Derby. As long as she sees out the 2500m trip, she should be the one to beat. She will jump from the outside gate and Zac Lloyd should roll forward to find a forward position.
(4) De Armas proved too good in the Wakeful Stakes and that is normally an excellent lead-up into the Oaks, with the five-day break proving to be of benefit to these staying fillies. Like Proxima Dea, the 2500m is certainly a query, so you couldn’t be too confident that one of the pair just wins.
(1) Proxima Dea WIN
$2.35 (2 Units)
Race 9 – G.H.Mumm Century Stakes – 1000m (5:50pm AEDT)
(1) Rey Magnerio should have no excuses on Thursday after two runs this prep. He was too far back in the McEwen Stakes, finishing fourth. Let’s hope it’s a case of back Pike in the last as the Western Australian star jockey retains the ride on the gelding. He has won two of five over the 1000m and should run well.
(3) Bev’s Nine has finished third in both runs this prep, the latest coming in the Henley Homes Sprint. He fought on bravely and should be very competitive here in a good sprint to finish the meeting.
(1) Rey Magnerio WIN
$3.60 (2 Units)
