Monday Night Football closes out Week 8 with one of the better matchups of the week, as the Seattle Seahawks host the Chicago Bears at Lumen Field.
These teams last met late in the 2024 season, when Seattle escaped Soldier Field with an ugly 6-3 victory in a game that somehow featured zero touchdowns. That result can safely be thrown in the bin when handicapping Monday night. Both franchises are almost unrecognisable from where they were two years ago, and this matchup features two legitimate NFC contenders with very different strengths.
Chicago enters at 5-2, with Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson leading one of the NFL’s most dangerous offences. Seattle is 4-3 and coming off arguably the most impressive defensive performance by any team this season, holding Patrick Mahomes and the previously unbeaten Chiefs to just three points.
The spread has bounced around the key number of three. Seattle were around -2.5 on the lookahead, reopened at -3.5 following their demolition of Kansas City, and were quickly pushed back towards a heavily juiced -3.
That is almost exactly where I have the game. Despite that, I'm taking Chicago. The Bears have the benefit of additional rest after playing on Thursday night in Week 7, Seattle could understandably experience some regression after such an emotionally charged win over Kansas City, and in today's NFL I generally prefer backing the better offense over the better defence when the number is right. The total is less exciting, but I also lean under.
Find our full preview for Bears at Seahawks below!
Bears vs Seahawks — Best Bets
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
| Spread |
Bears +3.5 |
$1.83 (2u) |
| Total |
Under 46.5 |
$1.90 (1u) |
| Receiving yards |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 110+ |
$2.20 (1.5u) |
| Receiving yards |
AJ Barner 30+ |
$1.90 (1u) |
| Anytime TD |
Colston Loveland |
$3.20 (0.5u) |
Last Week Recap
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle produced a statement in Week 7. The Seahawks dominated Kansas City 20-3, handing the Chiefs their first defeat of the season and completely suffocating an offense led by Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City managed just 213 total yards, 11 first downs and zero trips into the red zone. It was the first time in Mahomes' 153 career starts, including playoffs, that Kansas City failed to reach the red zone even once. That is ridiculous.
Seattle's offense was considerably more effective than the 20-point scoreline suggests as well. The Seahawks accumulated 410 yards, converted 11 of 16 third downs and controlled possession for almost 36 minutes. Sam Darnold threw for 257 yards and a touchdown, while Emanuel Wilson added 100 yards on the ground.
But once again, the star was Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN caught nine passes for 150 yards and a touchdown, taking his season total to an NFL-leading 867 receiving yards with eight touchdowns. He has now topped 100 yards in six of Seattle's seven games. AJ Barner also continued to establish himself behind JSN in the passing hierarchy, catching four passes for 42 yards while additionally converting three short-yardage rushing attempts.
The one concern is whether Seattle can immediately reproduce that intensity. The Seahawks entered last week having lost three of their previous four games and desperately needed a response. They got one against the previously unbeaten Chiefs. Now they are being asked to back it up eight days later against another dangerous opponent.
Chicago Bears
Chicago have had considerably more time to prepare. The Bears played on Thursday night in Week 7, defeating New England 30-24 to improve to 5-2 before receiving an extended break ahead of Monday night.
Williams continued his excellent form, throwing for 308 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. Luther Burden III exploded for four catches and 130 yards, while Colston Loveland produced a season-high seven receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown. That followed another strong offensive showing in Week 6, when Chicago scored 31 points in Atlanta and Williams threw for 305 yards. The Bears' offense has therefore scored 61 points across its past two games, and Williams appears completely recovered from the hamstring injury that cost him three starts.
There were positives defensively as well. Chicago limited New England to just 70 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one week after holding Bijan Robinson to a season-low 61 yards. Ben Johnson specifically praised the improvement in Chicago's run defence following the win.
Then the Bears made one of the biggest moves of the season. Chicago acquired three-time All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons from Tennessee, surrendering two future first-round picks as part of the package. Simmons has recorded four sacks through seven games this season and immediately upgrades the middle of this defensive front, although his workload Monday remains uncertain after joining the team only days ago.
The major injury from Week 7 was Cole Kmet. Kmet suffered a knee injury against New England and will miss the remainder of the season, leaving Loveland to assume an even larger role in the passing game.
Matchup Breakdown
Spread
Bet: Bears +3.5 (Best Bet)
This is almost exactly where my number sits. I make Seattle around a three-point favourite at home, so there is no major mathematical edge here. But I'm prepared to back Chicago at +3.5, particularly when plus money is available.
There are a few reasons.
1) Chicago has a genuine preparation advantage
The Bears played New England on Thursday night. Seattle played Kansas City on Sunday night. For a Monday game, that gives Chicago several additional days to recover and prepare. That is particularly useful when travelling into one of the NFL's more difficult environments at Lumen Field.
Meanwhile, Seattle is coming down from a massive performance. The Seahawks spent last week preparing for the unbeaten Chiefs and produced their best game of the season.
It would hardly be surprising if they started slightly flatter here.
2) I'll take the better offense with the points
Seattle's defence may be the best unit in football. What they did to Kansas City was extraordinary. But Chicago have considerably more offensive upside than most teams Seattle have faced this season.
Williams has thrown for more than 300 yards in consecutive games, Chicago are producing explosive plays across multiple positions, and Johnson remains one of the league's best offensive designers.
This doesn't mean the Bears will score 30 again. It means they have enough ways to attack Seattle that I don't want to lay a field goal against them.
When two good teams are relatively evenly matched, I tend to side with the offense in the modern NFL.
3) Three matters
There is a big difference between Bears +2.5 and Bears +3.5. A game like this has 23-20 or 24-21 written all over it.
The market briefly moved Seattle beyond the field goal after the Chiefs win, but bettors quickly pushed Chicago back through that number. That makes sense to me.
Seattle deserves to be favoured. I just don't think they deserve more than three.
BEST BET:
Chicago Bears +3.5
$1.83 (2 Units)
Total
Bet: Under 46.5 (Small Play)
This one is much closer. I make the total 46, while the market has remained around 46.5. That obviously isn't enough of an edge for a large bet. But I still prefer the under.
Seattle's defence is the biggest reason. Kansas City entered last week at 5-0 and couldn't even reach the red zone. The Seahawks held them to 213 yards and three points while completely shutting down both the running and passing game.
The Bears are much more dangerous than that performance suggests Kansas City were, but asking the Bears to march into Seattle and score 30 would be ambitious.
On the other side, I think Chicago's defence has improved enough to prevent Seattle running away with the game. The Bears have tightened considerably against the run over the past fortnight and have now added Simmons to a defensive front already featuring Montez Sweat.
Seattle also enters with some injury issues. Left tackle Charles Cross has been dealing with an ankle injury, while Rashid Shaheed and multiple running backs have appeared on the injury report this week.
Chicago should therefore have opportunities to make Darnold uncomfortable. The obvious risk is the Bears offense. This group can explode. They scored 59 in Week 1 and have just put up 31 and 30 in consecutive games.
That ceiling is why this is only a small play. But if Seattle's defence performs anywhere near its current level, I think getting into the 50s requires too much from the Seahawks offense.
BEST BET:
Under 46.5 Total Points
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Key Players & Prop Markets
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 110+ Receiving Yards
At this stage, JSN is almost an automatic inclusion. They seemingly cannot make the number high enough.
Smith-Njigba has recorded: 122, 155, 128, 76, 102, 134 and 150 receiving yards through seven games.
He has therefore topped 100 receiving yards in six of seven, with the only miss coming when he still managed 76. And this isn't low-volume efficiency. JSN has seen enormous usage, including 12 targets in each of the past two games. Seattle's passing game runs through him.
Even against Kansas City, where the Seahawks controlled the game and never needed to chase points, he still managed nine catches for 150 yards. At some stage, bookmakers may finally find the number. I don't think 110+ at $2.20 is it. Chicago can defend well and JSN can still get there.
BEST BET:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 110+ Receiving Yards
$2.20 (1.5 Units)
AJ Barner - 30+ Receiving Yards
Barner is becoming an increasingly important secondary option. He finished with four receptions for 42 yards against Kansas City, his second-best receiving output of the season, and Darnold consistently looked his way when the Chiefs concentrated coverage around JSN.
That's the role I'm betting on. Chicago obviously knows where Seattle wants to go with the football. They can tilt coverage towards Smith-Njigba, but doing so inevitably creates opportunities elsewhere.
Barner has shown enough as a route runner to capitalise. We aren't asking for much. At 30+ yards, three receptions could be enough.
His short-yardage rushing usage is also an indication of how highly Seattle's coaching staff trust him in important situations.
BEST BET:
AJ Barner 30+ Receiving Yards
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Anytime Touchdown Markets
Colston Loveland anytime touchdown
This role has changed considerably. Kmet is now out for the season, meaning Loveland becomes Chicago's clear No. 1 tight end. He was already trending strongly before the injury.
Loveland has caught 13 passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games, scoring against both Atlanta and New England. He now inherits even more snaps and, importantly, red-zone opportunities.
Williams has increasingly trusted him as the season has progressed, and Loveland has developed into one of the more important pieces of this receiving group. There is one late-week concern. Loveland was added to the injury report with a neck issue and was limited in practice, so his status needs to be monitored before kick-off. Assuming he is cleared without restriction, $3.20 is a good enough price.
BEST BET:
Colston Loveland Anytime Touchdown
$3.20 (0.5 Units)
18+ Gamble Responsibly. Odds are those supplied in the original preview and may change.
