Australian lightweight prospect Tom Nolan faces the biggest challenge of his UFC career this Sunday, 1 November, when he takes on experienced Brazilian contender Renato Moicano in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas.
Nolan enters the contest riding a five-fight winning streak and has an opportunity to establish himself among the leading contenders in the lightweight division. However, Moicano represents a significant step up in opposition, with the Brazilian having shared the Octagon with some of the sport's biggest names.
The co-main event sees undefeated welterweight Jacobe Smith take on UFC veteran Randy Brown, while flyweights Ode' Osbourne and Cody Durden meet in another intriguing matchup.
We preview the three headline fights and provide our UFC Fight Night betting tips below.
UFC Fight Night Betting Tips
| Fight |
Best Bet |
Odds |
| Moicano vs Nolan |
Renato Moicano to Win |
$1.78 (2 units) |
| Brown vs Smith |
Jacobe Smith to Win |
$1.37 (2 units) |
| Osbourne vs Durden |
Cody Durden to Win |
$1.85 (1 unit) |
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan – Lightweight Main Event
Division: Lightweight – 5 Rounds
Odds: Moicano $1.78 | Nolan $2.08
Australia's Tom Nolan has made an impressive recovery from his disappointing UFC debut, stringing together five consecutive victories to earn his first main event opportunity. The Queenslander possesses excellent size and reach for the lightweight division, using his striking ability to control distance and punish opponents who struggle to close the gap.
However, Renato Moicano brings considerably more experience against elite opposition. The Brazilian has faced Islam Makhachev, Beneil Dariush and several other established contenders, while victories over Chris Duncan, Benoît Saint Denis and Jalin Turner demonstrate that he remains a dangerous competitor. His submission skills are particularly impressive, and he should have a clear advantage if he can consistently take Nolan to the canvas.
Nolan's best chance is to keep the contest standing and use his reach to frustrate Moicano over five rounds. Nevertheless, the Brazilian's grappling, experience and ability to exploit mistakes make him the more reliable selection. Nolan is certainly capable of producing an upset, but this looks like a difficult assignment at this stage of his career. At $1.78, Moicano is our preferred bet in the main event.
Best Bet
Renato Moicano to Win
$1.78 (2 units)
Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith – Welterweight Co-Main Event
Division: Welterweight – 3 Rounds
Odds: Brown $3.14 | Smith $1.37
Unbeaten American Jacobe Smith will look to continue his rapid rise through the welterweight division when he faces experienced Jamaican Randy Brown. Smith boasts a perfect 13-0 professional record and has finished all four of his UFC opponents, combining powerful striking with a strong wrestling background. He accepted this contest on short notice after recording another victory earlier in October.
Brown represents a significant increase in difficulty for Smith. The 36-year-old has spent more than a decade competing in the UFC and possesses the reach, technical striking and experience to trouble aggressive opponents. Although he has struggled for consistency recently, Brown has previously defeated quality opposition and will be looking to halt Smith's momentum.
The biggest question is whether Smith can impose his wrestling and pressure against an opponent with Brown's experience. Brown's length could create problems during extended striking exchanges, but Smith's explosiveness and finishing ability make him the deserved favourite. His short turnaround is a concern, particularly at the relatively short price of $1.37, although he should have the tools to dictate where much of the fight takes place.
Best Bet
Jacobe Smith to Win
$1.37 (2 units)
Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden – Flyweight
Division: Flyweight – 3 Rounds
Odds: Osbourne $2.00 | Durden $1.85
Both Ode' Osbourne and Cody Durden enter Sunday's flyweight contest looking to revive their fortunes following difficult stretches inside the Octagon. Osbourne is an explosive striker with considerable finishing ability, but consistency has been a major problem. He has struggled to put together victories against established UFC opposition and remains vulnerable when opponents can neutralise his striking.
Durden has also endured a disappointing run of results, although his wrestling and grappling provide a potential pathway to victory. The American is particularly dangerous when he can establish top control and force opponents to defend repeated takedown attempts. Against a fighter like Osbourne, who prefers to operate at range, that approach could prove decisive.
Osbourne's speed and striking power make him a genuine threat, particularly during the opening exchanges. However, Durden appears to have the more dependable route to victory if he can close the distance and turn the contest into a grappling battle. Neither fighter inspires enormous confidence given their recent form, so this is a smaller-stakes selection at $1.85.
Best Bet
Cody Durden to Win
$1.85 (1 unit)
UFC Fight Night Best Bets
Renato Moicano appeals as our strongest selection on Sunday's card, with his experience and grappling ability giving him an advantage against rising Australian prospect Tom Nolan. The Brazilian has already proven himself against high-level opposition and should be well equipped to handle the pressure of another five-round main event.
Jacobe Smith is also expected to maintain his unbeaten record against Randy Brown, although his relatively short turnaround makes the $1.37 price less attractive from a value perspective. Cody Durden completes our selections, but his inconsistent recent form makes that matchup a more speculative betting proposition.
With three competitive contests at the top of the card, UFC Fight Night should provide plenty of entertainment as Nolan looks to produce a breakthrough victory for Australian MMA.
