The Melbourne Cup Carnival gets underway in spectacular fashion this Saturday, October 31, with Flemington hosting one of the most prestigious meetings on the Australian racing calendar — Victoria Derby Day.
Widely regarded as one of the great days of Australian thoroughbred racing, Derby Day brings together elite gallopers, leading trainers and the country's best jockeys for a magnificent nine-race program featuring three Group 1 events. While Melbourne Cup Day might attract the biggest mainstream audience, racing purists often consider Derby Day the standout meeting of the entire spring carnival.
The headline attraction is the $3 million Victoria Derby, where Australia's leading three-year-old stayers tackle the demanding 2500-metre journey. It's a race that tests stamina, temperament and staying potential, with many of the runners stepping into unfamiliar territory at the distance. The Derby has a rich history of producing memorable performances, and this year's edition promises another fascinating contest.
There's plenty of quality elsewhere on the card, with the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes bringing together some of the country's most exciting young sprinters over Flemington's famous straight six. The Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes adds further star power, with an outstanding field of fillies and mares competing over 1600 metres.
From a betting perspective, Derby Day offers a terrific mixture of established Group 1 performers, emerging three-year-olds and competitive handicap races. With several open markets and some attractive each-way opportunities, there should be plenty of chances to find value throughout the afternoon.
Track conditions will be an important consideration, with the rail in the true position and a Good surface expected initially. However, the possibility of thunderstorms means punters should monitor the weather and any track rating changes before placing their bets. Racing begins at 12:20pm AEDT with the the Victoria Derby at 4:20pm AEDT. Below, we've analysed all nine races and identified our best Flemington Derby Day betting tips, including selections for all three Group 1 features and our strongest bets across the program.
Flemington Derby Day Betting Tips
| Race |
Best Bet |
Odds (Units) |
| R1 |
Unhinged Win |
$3.00 (2u) |
| R2 |
Pin Up Sheila Win |
$4.60 (1.5u) |
| R5 |
Warnie Win |
$5.00 (1.5u) |
| R5 |
Hughes Win |
$11.00 (1u) |
| R6 |
The Next Episode Win |
$3.70 (1.5u) |
| R7 |
Cormier Win |
$4.80 (1u) |
| R8 |
Lady Shenandoah Win |
$2.50 (3u) |
Race 1 – Channel 9 Carbine Club Stakes - 1600m (12:20pm AEDT)
(2) Unhinged has won his past two starts, including beating the older horses at Rosehill Gardens in a Benchmark 72 Handicap. He returns to his own age group as the Carbine Club Stakes is for 3YOs. He should get a nice run from the inside gate with James McDonald riding. There’s no reason he can’t make it a hat-trick of wins.
(3) High Falls is unbeaten from two starts and he steps up in class following a Benchmark 62 Handicap victory at Warrnambool where he obliterated rivals by seven lengths! There should be more early speed here so he won’t dictate this time around and John Allen could find cover. Still looks a strong hope.
BEST BET
(2) Unhinged WIN
$3.00 (2u)
Race 2 – TAB ONE POOL Vanity - 1400m (1:00pm AEDT)
(4) Pin Up Sheila won both starts last prep before a brief spell. She returned with a sixth at Warwick Farm and then finished second in the Group 3 Reginald Allen Quality. James McDonald picks up the ride which is a positive and gate five should hopefully see the filly settle midfield. She should let down strongly in this company.
(1) Regal Ambition won the Listed Jim Moloney Stakes before starting favourite in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas where she finished third. She found the line well from back in the field and will be hardest to beat here. The $2.25 looks short enough though.
BEST BET
(4) Pin Up Sheila WIN
$4.60 (1.5u)
Race 3 – HKJC World Pool Wakeful Stakes - 2000m (1:40pm AEDT)
(1) Icelady has been consistent all prep for the red-hot stable of Ciaron Maher. She won the Thousand Guineas Prelude before finishing second in the Thousand Guineas itself. The step up to 2000m will be the query.
(3) De Armas also comes out of the Thousand Guineas, running fourth, beaten three lengths. Like many runners here, the 2000m is a first for these fillies, so I would prefer to just let them go around and see which Oaks contenders emerge.
NO BET
Race 4 – G.H. Mumm Rising Fast Stakes - 1200m (2:20pm AEDT)
(10) Golden Straand is third-up into this race after he won a Benchmark 88 Handicap at Randwick and then ran second at Doomben. With a capacity field of 20 runners, this race looks like a raffle.
(20) Hankee Alpha won well last time over course and distance but it was on a heavy track and this looks harder. The 54kg and Craig Williams are positives.
NO BET
Race 5 – The ABC Bullion Damien Oliver - 1400m (3:00pm AEDT)
(5) Warnie looks ready to win following a fourth-placed effort in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap at Caulfield. The spacious Flemington suits as he has won twice from five starts, including this race last year. Hopefully he can settle close enough in the run from the inside gate as there should be good speed throughout.
(10) Hughes finished third in the Group 3 Harry White Stakes won by War Machine who narrowly defeated Private Eye. Both rivals are back again, but Hughes gets a huge weight swing this time around. The Echuca Cup winner from last prep can win this if he shows any improvement from that first-up effort in the Harry White.
BEST BET
Also Backing: (10) Hughes $11.00 (1u) - Neds
(5) Warnie WIN
$5.00 (1.5u)
Race 6 – Coolmore Stud Stakes - 1200m (3:40pm AEDT)
(1) The Next Episode was awesome in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes as he flew home down the outside fence to grab Natural Fling near the winning post. Prepared by Ciaron Maher, the three-year-old colt won the Magic Millions National 2YO Classic in May, defeating Natural Fling also. There’s no reason he can’t power over the top of them late.
(5) St Gotthard has been runner up in both runs this campaign, chasing home Warwoven on both occasions which is a strong form line. The latest was in the Golden Rose and the colt has since had a trial and a jump out. Will be cherry ripe to run a huge race here.
BEST BET
(1) The Next Episode WIN
$3.70 (1.5u)
Race 7 – Howden Victoria Derby - 2500m (4:20pm AEDT)
(1) Cormier heads south from Sydney after running third in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes. Gate three looks excellent as Jamie Mott can look to settle forward in the run, which is how the colt likes to race. He should settle in the first four unless the tempo is strong and the colt would be keen to preserve some petrol. On class alone, he looks hard to beat, and the staying distance should be suitable. Looks excellent value in the Derby.
(2) Stormy Marco finished one spot further back than Cormier in the Spring Champion Stakes and James McDonald reunites with the colt. They finished second in the Group 3 Ming Dynasty Quality four runs back. Chris Waller knows how to train a Victoria Derby winner with Riff Rocket, Manzoice and Preferment saluting for the astute trainer.
BEST BET
(1) Cormier WIN
$4.80 (1u)
Race 8 – TAB Empire Rose Stakes - 1600m (5:00pm AEDT)
(1) Lady Shenandoah looks really well placed and the ultra-consistent mare got a deserved win last time, winning the Group 1 Toorak Handicap at Caulfield. This is her first time to Flemington and she is very well weighted at WFA in this event. James McDonald rides her well and as long as she doesn’t cop any interference or get blocked for a run, she should prove too strong for rivals.
(3) Surfin’ Bird has won her past two starts for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. She won the Group 2 Kia Ora Stud Mile over Buckaroo and Another Wil last start which is a good form line. If there is to be an upset, then this mare ticks all the boxes to be the one to do so.
BEST BET
(1) Lady Shenandoah WIN
$2.50 (3u)
Race 9 – Asahi Super Dry Sprint - 1100m (5:40pm AEDT)
(4) Flying For Fun chased home Jigsaw in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes and aims to go one better here. She should be fully fit now and gets every chance to win with James McDonald riding. $2.50 looks short enough though as there are some serious dangers.
(5) Naifah was second at her first run back this campaign. She split Point Barrow and Bridal Waltz in the Group 3 Northwood Plume Stakes. It is a tricky way to finish the program though, so prefer to stay out.
NO BET
