Australia will be looking to finish the group stage of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup on a high when they take on the Cook Islands at Queensland Country Bank Stadium in Townsville on Saturday night.
The Kangaroos have maintained their unbeaten record through the opening two rounds, but their performances have raised more questions than many expected from the tournament favourites. While the results have gone their way, Australia have yet to produce the sort of commanding, polished football that has made them the benchmark of international rugby league for decades.
With the knockout stages fast approaching, the pressure is beginning to build on the defending champions to find another gear. Australia's extraordinary depth and attacking talent make them overwhelming favourites against the Cook Islands, but this contest is about more than simply securing another victory. The Kangaroos will want to sharpen their combinations, improve their execution and build confidence ahead of the much tougher challenges that await.
For the Cook Islands, it's another opportunity to test themselves against the very best in the international game. Facing the world's top-ranked nation is a daunting assignment, but there is also plenty of motivation to finish their World Cup campaign with a performance they can be proud of.
The enormous gulf between the teams is reflected in the betting markets, with Australia conceding a remarkable 72.5-point handicap. That creates an interesting question for punters: just how dominant can the Kangaroos be, and is there value in backing them to cover such a substantial line?
We break down the form, key statistics and betting markets ahead of Australia vs Cook Islands, including our best bet and a three-leg same-game multi for Saturday night's clash.
Something just isn’t right…
The Aussies recorded their second straight victory with a 36-22 win over Fiji last Sunday evening. Despite a host of changes for that contest, a strong display was expected.
The performance was far from convincing though, as the Australian team trailed 14-12 early in the second half.
Relying on some of their star players, they were able to dominate the third phase of the contest to overpower their opponents. With 51% possession they completed at 81%, they made just 8.3m per carry and had fewer PCM’s (411 vs 434). The fact that they struggled for consistency in attack overlooks the fact that they had 7 line breaks; looking like they were dominating, the Fijians hung in the contest and made thing challenging for the home team.
It’s as if the Australian team were dominated in the middle, pressuring other areas of their team for 80 minutes.
Daring to dream
Following a tough 40-12 loss to Fiji in their opening game of the competition, the Cook Islands team came out firing against New Zealand last week. They led 16-12 after 20 minutes and many were daring to think that an impossible result was a chance of occurring.
Unfortunately for the visitors, that is where their joy ended as they went on to suffer an 82-16 loss.
With just 39% possession, they were powerless to halt the attacking momentum of the Kiwis, missing 53 tackles and conceding 11 line breaks. They allowed 10.5m per carry and 772 PCM’s also. Allowing such momentum to an opponent of that quality will never end well and they face another tough task here.
Stats that matter
- This is the first ever time Australia has met the Cook Islands in a rugby league match. The disparity is large with Australia ranked 1st in the world and the Cook Islands 8th.
- The Cook Islands have conceded 32 points or more in their past 4 games, all of which they have lost. In the same matches, they have scored a maximum of 16 points in attack.
- The Australian’s have conceded 22 points in both games so far this tournament. Thankfully, they’ve averaged 30 points to defeat their opponents.
Confidence to return
This game comes at the perfect time for the hosts as they can regain confidence in their play against the lowest ranked team they will face this tournament.
It is no surprise that you cannot place a bet on Australia to win this game, such is the expectation that they will prevail in this contest. It must work for them in this match as they cannot afford to search for answers in a Semi Final match next week.
Players like Munster, Grant, and Dearden need their combination to click here, and the defensive structure of their opponents is likely to offer plenty of opportunities. It is scary to think what the likes of Walsh, Trbojevic, Bostock, and Best do with more room to move.
Hopefully, they have improved on last week as form suggests that their game should be won by a larger margin than the Kiwis achieved last week. This means that the line is in danger, but such is the enormity of what is offered, keep your stake low and build a bank for coming weeks.
BEST BET
Australia -72.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Total points over 79.5 – saluting last week, defence isn’t the visitor’s strong point. With fatigue growing, expect the margin to go beyond what is offered here.
Trbojevic 3+ tries – it hasn’t been the best tournament for the fullback playing on the wing but as he grows into this position, expect form to return ahead of this week. Devastating from anywhere on the field, Turbo will again be crucial to his team’s success on the right edge.
Best 2+ tries – McLean scored twice last week on the left edge and Best will relish the chance to come up against Rennie at centre. A strong, ball carrying player, Best is at his best when he has his hands on the ball and sweeping plays to the left-hand side should see this occur often.
SAME GAME MULTI
Australia vs Cook Islands Same Game Multi
$7.50
Australia vs Cook Islands Betting Odds & Match Info
| Date |
Saturday 31st October |
| Location |
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville |
| Time |
8:05pm (AEST) |
| Odds |
Australia NP vs Cook Islands $67 |
| Line |
-72.5 |
| Points |
79.5 |
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