The NBA season is barely a week old, but already we're seeing some intriguing early trends, unexpected results and plenty of questions about which teams are genuine contenders. Thursday's packed 12-game slate gives punters another opportunity to assess the early-season form, with several big matchups and injury concerns creating some interesting betting opportunities.
Houston have been one of the standout teams so far, opening their campaign with four consecutive victories, but their unbeaten record faces a serious test on the road against Milwaukee. The Rockets are dealing with key absences in their frontcourt, while the Bucks are still trying to find their rhythm after a busy offseason.
Elsewhere, Philadelphia will look to bounce back from their first defeat when they visit Indiana, while Golden State head to Minnesota hoping their breakthrough victory in Denver is the start of a turnaround. Both contests feature significant injury concerns, making the handicap markets particularly interesting.
With early-season results still difficult to interpret and bookmakers adjusting their lines as teams settle into their rotations, there may be opportunities to find value beyond simply backing the favourites. We've narrowed Thursday's schedule down to three NBA betting tips, with our selections, analysis and recommended stakes below.
NBA Best Bets - Thursday October 29th 2026
| Match |
Best Bet |
Odds |
| 76ers at Pacers |
Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 |
$1.82 (1.5 Units) |
| Rockets at Bucks |
Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 |
$1.83 (1 Unit) |
| Warriors at Timberwolves |
Golden State Warriors +3.5 |
$1.90 (1 Unit) |
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers (10am AEDT)
Philadelphia have opened 3-1 without finding their range consistently, shooting just 31.7 per cent from three across their first four games. There is still work to do with this new line-up, but having several players who can create a shot gives them options when the outside shooting dries up. Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe are expected back after missing the Detroit loss, and the Sixers have had two days between games.
Indiana’s best chance is to keep the ball moving and make Philadelphia defend before they are set. That becomes harder if Tyrese Haliburton or Andrew Nembhard cannot play, with both guards questionable. The confirmed absence of Ivica Zubac is just as relevant. Without him, Indiana have less size to put against Embiid and less protection behind their perimeter defenders when Maxey or Brown get into the lane.
That combination puts us on Philadelphia. Indiana need to find answers at centre while managing uncertainty around the guards responsible for getting their own offence going. The Sixers’ shooting makes a comfortable win far from assured, but they have other ways to score and an extra day’s rest. With their main players expected to be available, we’re happy to lay the 3.5 points.
Best Bet
Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
$1.82 (1.5 Units)
Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks (11am AEDT)
Houston’s 4-0 start has shown the value of their depth. They have been able to use different combinations and reduce their reliance on Kevin Durant, including pulling away from Atlanta with him on the bench. Losing Alperen Sengun changes that, though. He gives their offence a passing option through the middle as well as a scoring threat, and Steven Adams is also unavailable. Clint Capela can cover centre minutes, while smaller line-ups offer another option, but neither simply replaces Sengun’s role.
Milwaukee are still finding their feet after the offseason changes. Their first three opponents all scored at least 125 points, so one win over a depleted Indiana side does not settle the questions about their defence. They do have Myles Turner and Kel’el Ware available, giving them two centres to rotate against Houston’s altered frontcourt. Both teams have had a day between games, with the Bucks staying home after facing the Pacers.
Houston remain the more convincing team, but 8.5 points is a useful start against an opponent making such a significant adjustment. Milwaukee can keep size on the floor without asking one centre to carry the entire workload, while the Rockets must redistribute the possessions that normally go through Sengun. The Bucks’ defence keeps the stake at 1 unit, but the home side have enough in their favour to stay within the line.
Best Bet
Milwaukee Bucks +8.5
$1.83 (1 Unit)
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves (11am AEDT)
Golden State’s win in Denver ended a poor start, but it does not erase the concerns from their opening three defeats. With Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis out, the Warriors are still short of important options, and Yaxel Lendeborg is questionable. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Brandin Podziemski are available, giving them a familiar group to run the offence. The challenge is producing enough around that group without relying on another exceptional night from three.
Minnesota present a different test because of their size. Rudy Gobert gives them a threat on the boards against Golden State’s smaller centre combinations, and that remains an advantage even with Anthony Edwards ruled out. His absence changes the other end of the matchup. LaMelo Ball can organise the offence, but Minnesota must find another way to replace Edwards’ ability to get into the lane and create a shot when a possession stalls.
The Warriors’ appeal comes from getting points against a team making that adjustment. Minnesota can still hurt them inside, but Golden State have their established ball-handlers available and do not need to win outright to cover. This looks more suited to a close contest than another comfortable Warriors victory. Lendeborg’s uncertain status keeps the stake at 1 unit, with the 3.5-point start providing the reason to back the visitors.
Best Bet
Golden State Warriors +3.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Odds may change. 18+ Gamble Responsibly.
