Preliminary Final weekend in the AFL continues on Saturday with a twilight fixture between Hawthorn and Brisbane at the MCG. The Hawks have their eyes set on their first Grand Final appearance since 2015, while the Lions are aiming to keep their chances of a three-peat alive!
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Hawks vs Lions below. Show your support by creating an account with Dabble to help us keep our content free!
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Preliminary Final
Hawks Flying High
Hawthorn enters this Preliminary Final carrying genuine confidence following their impressive upset victory over Fremantle in week one of the finals. Sam Mitchell's men controlled proceedings against the minor premiers at Optus Stadium, restricting the Dockers to their lowest half-time score since 1920 on the way to a 32-point win. The Hawks showcased a disciplined defensive grid that evening, led by skipper James Sicily and the intercept marking of Josh Battle and Tom Barrass, while Dylan Moore and Jack Gunston provided the polish in the forward half. Earning the week off and a home Preliminary Final at the MCG is a significant achievement for this squad, and they will rely on their structured team defence and a vocal home crowd to help them push for a Grand Final berth.
Lions Roaring Back
Brisbane travel to Melbourne looking to secure a fourth consecutive Grand Final appearance after bouncing back strongly from their qualifying final defeat to Sydney. The two-time defending premiers answered their critics last weekend, ending Adelaide's season with a 53-point victory at the Gabba. Chris Fagan's side rediscovered their scoring power, piling on 21.18 (144) as Charlie Cameron booted five goals and Will Ashcroft delivered an outstanding midfield performance. While they proved they still possess the firepower to stretch opposition backlines, backing up a high-intensity semi-final with an interstate trip against a well-rested Hawthorn outfit will test their physical conditioning and defensive transition.
Brisbane Holding the Recent Edge
When looking at recent history between the two clubs, the Lions hold a distinct psychological edge having won their last three encounters against the Hawks. That run includes their most recent meeting at the MCG back in 2025, proving Brisbane have no issues handling Hawthorn on the biggest stage. Chris Fagan’s side have consistently found ways to disrupt the Hawks' ball movement and punish them on turnover in recent years. While Hawthorn are a more seasoned and structurally sound unit than in previous seasons, Brisbane's recent head-to-head dominance ensures they will travel to Melbourne with complete belief in their tactical plan.
Where the Value Lies
This matchup shapes up as an intriguing tactical battle between Hawthorn's structured defence and Brisbane's attacking transition. The Hawks have the fresh legs and home ground advantage to start fast and dictate early proceedings, but keeping the two-time reigning premiers quiet for four quarters is exceptionally difficult. Given the stakes and the contrasting styles of play, we anticipate momentum swings and multiple lead changes across the afternoon. Neither side is likely to dominate from the opening bounce to the final siren, making the "Any Other Result" market for the wire-to-wire outcome an appealing option. Expect a tight, see-sawing contest where both teams enjoy periods of dominance on the scoreboard.
Wire to Wire: Any Other Result
$2.30 (1.5 Units)
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Prop Bet
After a couple of down weeks by his standards, Kai Lohmann returned to form against the Crows with a couple of goals. He’s kicked 2+ goals in eight of his last 11 matches and is averaging 2 per game across the entire season. Also, Lohmann had a day out against the Hawks in Round 22, kicking 5 goals to take his tally to 9 in 4 matches against them in his career.
Kai Lohmann 2+ Goals
$2.03
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Same Game Multi
Logan Morris 2+ Goals: He’s kicked 2+ goals in five straight games, with a total of 20 goals during that stretch. He also kicked four against the Hawks in Round 22.
Cam Rayner Anytime Goal Scorer: 2 goals last week for Cam. He’s now kicked at least one goal in seven of his last eight matches.
Dylan Moore Anytime Goal Scorer: Also kicked 2 goals in his most recent match against the Dockers. He’s kicked at least one in each of his last four matches.
Zac Bailey 20+ Disposals: 20+ disposals in 13 of his last 14 matches and 23 last week against the Crows.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday, 19th September
Time: 5:15pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Hawthorn $2.00 vs Brisbane $1.80
Line: +2.5
Points: 187.5
Where to Watch Hawthorn vs Brisbane
You can watch the Hawks vs Lions live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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