Brownlow Betting 2026: 3 Vote Games

At $9.00, Josh Ward is one of the biggest value selections on our list and one of the largest disagreements we've found between the betting market and our Brownlow predictor.

Hawthorn defeated Geelong by a single point in a classic contest, and we rated Ward as the best player on the ground.

Ward finished with 29 disposals and six tackles and was described as outstanding in our original analysis.

Bailey Smith certainly has a strong case after collecting 33 disposals and six clearances. We rated him clearly Geelong's best player, but still had Ward ahead of him.

At $9.00 compared with $1.90 for Smith, we don't need to be certain Ward receives the three votes for the price to look attractive.

This might be the biggest difference of opinion between our Brownlow predictor and the betting market – and the $13 available with Dabble makes it particularly interesting.

Port Adelaide escaped with a six-point victory over West Coast, but our analysis at the time was that the best players on the ground were arguably wearing Eagles jumpers.

Tom McCarthy had 31 disposals and 11 marks, while Jake Waterman was outstanding with 19 disposals, 11 marks and three goals.

For Port, Zak Butters had 27 disposals and seven clearances, although we questioned whether he was influential enough to poll. Jason Horne-Francis finished with 18 disposals, six marks and three goals.

Backing a player from the losing side carries additional risk, but McCarthy was our clear three-vote selection immediately after the game, and we haven't got Jason Horne-Francis in the votes at all so there's definitely a chance to play the value. At $13 with Dabble, the price is particularly appealing compared with our assessment of the match.

Carlton's midfielders all accumulated plenty of the football against Richmond, but our original analysis had Jagga Smith on top.

Smith finished with 32 disposals after collecting an incredible 16 touches in the opening quarter.

Patrick Cripps also had 32 disposals and nine clearances, while Sam Walsh collected 30 disposals and six clearances.

Cripps' proven ability to attract Brownlow votes makes him an obvious favourite, but we thought Smith's performance was worthy of maximum votes.

With the best Australian sports betting sites offering around $4.50 for the player we rated best on ground, Smith looks considerably more attractive than the short-priced favourite.

St Kilda held off a fast-finishing GWS to record a four-point victory, with several players producing big disposal numbers.

Lachie Ash had the biggest statistical performance with 39 disposals and nine marks, which helps explain his position at the head of the market.

However, the Giants lost the match and we preferred Jack Sinclair's performance for the winning side. Sinclair collected 31 disposals and nine marks.

There's a strong statistical argument for Ash, but with Sinclair our outright BOG in the winning team, the $4.00 available looks attractive.

This may be the most interesting selection of the five.

Tim Taranto produced 30 disposals, eight marks, seven tackles and eight clearances, while Darcy Parish accumulated a huge 41 disposals, seven marks and nine clearances for Essendon.

Parish was also awarded the match medal for best afield, which would ordinarily make him extremely difficult to oppose.

However, there was a fascinating quirk in the medal voting.

Despite Parish winning the award overall, none of the individual award voters actually ranked him as the best player on the ground. His combined score was enough to win the medal, but there wasn't a single voter who considered him BOG.

That was something we specifically highlighted in our original Round 11 Brownlow analysis. We normally give significant weight to match medals, but wrote at the time that this was one situation where going against the winner might be warranted.

With some sportsbooks offering around $3.40 for Taranto compared with $1.50 for Parish, there's a substantial difference between the betting market and our assessment.

Parish's huge disposal count and medal win make him an obvious threat, but the underlying voting provides a compelling reason to consider Taranto at the bigger price.