Monday Night Football closes out Week 1 with a massive AFC West matchup, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium in a game that already carries plenty of significance despite the season being only a few days old.
Check out our NFL tips for the Broncos at Chiefs below, and why not sign up to a new betting site to place your bets this weekend!
NFL 2026-27 Week 1: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Tips
Tuesday September 15th, 10:15am AEST
The AFC West shapes as one of the NFL’s strongest and most competitive divisions in 2026. Denver is coming off a 14-win season and a trip to the AFC Championship Game, while Kansas City are attempting to rebound from their first losing campaign of the Patrick Mahomes era. With the Chargers also expected to contend, dropping an opening divisional game immediately creates pressure.
Recent history has also changed dramatically. Kansas City dominated this rivalry for the best part of a decade, but Denver have now won four of the past five meetings, including both games last season. The Broncos won 22-19 in Denver before completing the sweep with a 20-13 victory at Arrowhead on Christmas Day.
Mahomes returns after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee late last season, while Denver quarterback Bo Nix is also returning from the fractured ankle that ended his playoff run. That immediately creates some uncertainty around both offenses, and it plays heavily into the betting angle here.
Denver at plus money is attractive, but the strongest play is the under. These teams know each other extremely well, Denver possess one of the best defensive units in football, and both quarterbacks are entering Week 1 off significant injuries.
Kansas City Chiefs
For the first time in more than a decade, January arrived without Kansas City playing meaningful football.
The Chiefs finished 6-11, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and bringing an extraordinary run of success temporarily to an end. After appearing in three consecutive Super Bowls, Kansas City never really found its rhythm in 2025 and finished the season with six straight defeats.
Mahomes still threw for 3,587 yards and 22 touchdowns across 14 games, but his 62.7% completion rate was the lowest of his career as a starter. His season then ended when he tore both the ACL and LCL in his left knee against the Chargers. Nine months later, he is expected to return for Week 1, with Andy Reid indicating the Chiefs do not plan to significantly restrict him.
Kansas City have reshaped the roster around him.
The biggest offensive addition is Kenneth Walker III, fresh from rushing for 1,027 yards and winning Super Bowl MVP with Seattle. Justin Fields has also arrived as insurance behind Mahomes, while Travis Kelce returns for another season after leading Kansas City with 76 receptions for 851 yards in 2025.
There has been considerable turnover elsewhere. Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Marquise Brown, Jawaan Taylor, Charles Omenihu and several defensive backs have departed, including star corners Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
The immediate concern this week is the offensive line. Left tackle Josh Simmons is battling a back injury, and with him unavailable, undrafted rookie Khalil Benson is expected to protect Mahomes’ blindside. Against a Denver defence built around pressure, that is not an ideal way for Mahomes to return from reconstructive knee surgery.
Denver Broncos
Denver took another major step forward under Sean Payton last season. The Broncos finished 14-3, tying the most regular season wins in franchise history and securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Their balance was their strength: Denver finished fourth in total defence while the offense continued to develop around Nix.
Nix threw for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns, while adding 356 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. He then produced one of the biggest performances of his young career in the Divisional Round, throwing three touchdowns as Denver defeated Buffalo 33-30 in overtime.
Unfortunately, that victory came at a huge cost. Nix fractured his right ankle late in overtime and missed the AFC Championship Game, where Denver eventually fell 10-7 to New England with Jarrett Stidham starting at quarterback.
Nix is back for Week 1, and the Broncos have given him more support. The biggest addition is Jaylen Waddle, who gives Denver another legitimate explosive receiving weapon alongside Courtland Sutton. The backfield remains deep, with J.K. Dobbins and second year runner RJ Harvey providing contrasting options.
Harvey quietly became one of Denver’s most effective scoring weapons last year. He recorded 540 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, while also catching 47 passes for 356 yards and another five scores. His 12 total touchdowns led the Broncos.
Denver enters Week 1 healthier than Kansas City overall, although the defence has undergone some changes, including the loss of John Franklin-Myers and Dre Greenlaw.
Even so, this remains a roster capable of competing for the AFC.
Match Prediction
It is never comfortable betting against Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead. But this is not the same Kansas City team that routinely dominated Denver for years, and the Broncos have proven it.
Denver have won four of the past five meetings between these teams, including both games last season. One of those came with Mahomes playing, when the Broncos held Kansas City to 19 points and intercepted him in the red zone during a 22-19 victory.
The current market has Denver as long as $2.30, and I think there is value in taking the outright win rather than relying on the points.
The obvious question is Mahomes. I expect him to look physically ready. Kansas City would not put him on the field otherwise, and everything coming out of Chiefs camp suggests he intends to play without restrictions.
But there is a difference between being cleared and being completely back. Mahomes is returning nine months after tearing two major ligaments in his left knee, and his first assignment is against a Denver defence that finished among the league’s best last season.
The absence of Josh Simmons only amplifies the concern. If Khalil Benson starts at left tackle, an undrafted rookie will be responsible for protecting the blindside of a quarterback playing his first meaningful snaps since major knee surgery.
Denver knows how to pressure Mahomes without completely losing their structure behind it. That gives them a genuine chance to win this game outright.
Denver Broncos +2.5
$1.91 (1 unit)
Points Total
The points total has hovered around 43-43.5, and while I would be considerably more aggressive at 44.5, I still favour the under at the current number and this is my strongest bet of the matchup.
There are several reasons. Firstly, both quarterbacks are returning from significant injuries. Mahomes is coming back from ACL and LCL reconstruction, while Nix is playing his first competitive game since fracturing his ankle during the playoffs.
Even if both are medically healthy, Week 1 timing is difficult enough without adding that additional uncertainty.
Secondly, these divisional games have increasingly become defensive battles. The last four meaningful meetings produced totals of 33, 41, 30 and 38 points, with Denver’s defence consistently making Kansas City work for everything.
There is also familiarity. Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Steve Spagnuolo, and Vance Joseph have all seen enough of the opposition to understand exactly where the danger lies. That tends to reduce easy explosive plays and force longer drives.
Kansas City may also have every reason to protect Mahomes early. Kenneth Walker gives them a legitimate running option, and I would expect Reid to avoid putting his quarterback into obvious long yardage passing situations wherever possible.
On the other side, Denver should be comfortable playing through their defence and allowing Nix to settle into the game.
This looks much more like a low-20s matchup than a shootout.
Total Points Under 43.5
$1.90 (1.5u)
Player Props
Travis Kelce - Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
Kelce remains one of the safest places for Mahomes to go when pressure arrives.
Even during Kansas City’s difficult 2025 season, he recorded 76 receptions for 851 yards, averaging just over 50 receiving yards per game.
He also produced nine catches for 91 yards and a touchdown against Denver in their first meeting last season.
The broader matchup is difficult, and I do not want to load up on Kansas City passing props when I am heavily invested in the under.
But 37.5 is low enough that Kelce can get there through four or five catches underneath.
Travis Kelce - Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
$1.90
Bo Nix - Over 13.5 Rushing Yards
Nix’s mobility is an important part of Denver’s offense. He rushed for 356 yards and five touchdowns last season, averaging more than 20 rushing yards per game.
Coming back from an ankle injury makes me reluctant to make this an official play, but 13.5 is a manageable number.
Kansas City’s pressure packages can create scrambling opportunities, and Nix has never been afraid to take available yards when protection breaks down.
Two meaningful scrambles could be enough.
Bo Nix over 13.5 rushing yards
$1.90
RJ Harvey anytime touchdown
This is the touchdown market I want.
Harvey scored 12 total touchdowns last season: seven rushing and five receiving, more than any other Denver player. That versatility is exactly why he appeals.
He does not need to dominate carries ahead of J.K. Dobbins. Harvey can score through the running game, on a screen, or as a receiving option near the goal line.
Sean Payton has always valued backs who can threaten defences in multiple ways, and Harvey proved last year that he can be used creatively in scoring territory.
In what I expect to be a low scoring game, individual touchdown opportunities become even more valuable.
RJ Harvey anytime touchdown
$2.55
