The final game of AFL Round 23 looms as a highly one-sided affair as Essendon play host to Sydney at the MCG. For the Swans, they will see this as a dress rehearsal as they will have full faith they will be playing at the home of footy when the whips are cracking in late September.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Bombers vs Swans below, with odds thanks to UniBet!
Essendon vs Sydney Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 23
Bombers Limping to the Finish Line
Essendon returns to the MCG this Sunday twilight sitting rock bottom of the AFL ladder, desperately wanting this miserable 2026 campaign to end. Boasting a grim 2-19 record, they arrive fresh off another defensive capitulation, leaking 145 points in a brutal 72-point thrashing at the hands of Adelaide at Marvel Stadium. Their defensive structure has been practically non-existent in recent weeks, allowing opposition teams to score with alarming ease. Trying to find a spark, the match committee has swung the axe with three changes. Nick Bryan and Harry Jones return to add some desperately needed height, alongside winger Angus Clarke. However, losing midfield bull Sam Durham to general soreness is a massive blow to an engine room about to face one of the elite units in the competition.
Swans Tuning Up for September
Sydney travels down to Melbourne riding a wave of momentum. Firmly entrenched in second spot on the ladder, the Swans have already secured a top-two finish and officially locked in a home qualifying final. They enter this clash having just delivered a ruthless performance, kicking a staggering 26 goals in a 97-point annihilation of Port Adelaide at the SCG last Saturday. Everything clicked offensively for the Swans, demonstrating exactly why they are a genuine premiership threat. The coaching staff will be relishing the rare opportunity to play at the MCG, using this fixture as a vital tune-up on the grand final deck before September begins. With their forward half firing on all cylinders, they will smell blood in the water against a highly fragile Essendon outfit.
Tactical Contrast
Sydney’s offensive transition is currently operating at an elite level, seamlessly cutting through opposition zones and scoring heavily from turnover. Conversely, Essendon has routinely failed to defend the corridor, constantly getting caught out of position on the rebound. If the Bombers cannot apply immense pressure around the stoppage and force messy inside 50 entries, Sydney’s dynamic forward line will have an absolute field day with the uncontested supply.
Match Prediction and Best Bet
This Sunday twilight fixture is the most glaring mismatch of Round 23. Sydney is peaking ahead of September and Essendon looks completely bereft of confidence, sitting dead last, and simply waiting for the final siren of the season to sound. Given the Bombers' inability to prevent high scores, having conceded 145 points just last week, and Sydney's ability to put 167 points on the board themselves, a high-scoring shootout feels inevitable.
Over 184.5 Points
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Essendon vs Sydney Prop Bet
Charlie Curnow sits on top of the Coleman Medal leaderboard coming into Round 23 and will have his sights set on blowing the rest of his competition away with a big bag against the Bombers. He kicked five against the Power last week and should go large again here.
Charlie Curnow 5+ Goals
$2.70
Essendon vs Sydney Same Game Multi
Over 184.5 Points: For the reasons mentioned above in our best bet.
Charlie Curnow 5+ Goals: As highlighted above, Curnow will be eyeing a big bag against the vulnerable Essendon defence.
Logan McDonald 2+ Goals: He’s had a sneaky good season and continues to hit the scoreboard. 10 goals over the last three weeks and should kick a couple here.
Essendon vs Sydney Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Sunday 16th August
Time: 4:40pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Essendon $15 vs Sydney $1.02
Line: +61.5
Points: 184.5
Where to Watch Essendon vs Sydney
You can watch the Bombers vs Swans live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at UniBet!
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