There are a pair of Saturday night matches for AFL fans and punters to sink their teeth into, and the first of those to get underway is an important one as the Hawks and the Magpies clash at the home of footy. Who secures four important points here?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Hawks vs Magpies below, with odds thanks to PuntSport!
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 23
Hawks Seeking a Top Four Response
Hawthorn returns to the MCG this Saturday night desperately needing a response after suffering a brutal 67-point reality check against the Brisbane Lions. That 125 to 58 thrashing at the Gabba exposed major issues with their ball use, finishing with 17 turnovers and a dire 42 per cent efficiency rating inside 50. Despite the heavy defeat, Hawthorn remains third on the ladder, but their double-chance security is under severe threat from the chasing pack. This is a massive game for Hawthorn, as securing four points here is non-negotiable if they want to hold onto a top four spot.
Magpies Managing the Wildcard
Collingwood heads into Saturday night following a 19-point victory over West Coast in Perth, a 117 to 98 result that means they have now won seven of their last eight matches. However, the ladder situation dictates that this fixture carries less urgency for the club. Sitting eighth, Collingwood is almost certain to feature in the wildcard round and will likely play at the MCG regardless of whether they win out from here. It has also been an emotional week off the field, with premiership star Steele Sidebottom announcing he will retire at the end of the season. At the selection table, the Magpies should be boosted by the return of Scott Pendlebury and Jordan De Goey to add much-needed midfield poise.
Recent History and Stoppage Battle
There was nothing separating these two traditional rivals when they met earlier this year, battling out a thrilling 93 to 93 draw in Round 8 on this very deck. Tactically, this contest will be decided at the coalface. Collingwood relied heavily on stoppage dominance to pull away from West Coast, whereas Hawthorn was comprehensively bullied around the contest by Brisbane. If Hawthorn can hold their ground in the midfield and break even at the clearances, their outside runners possess the speed to stretch Collingwood's defensive transition.
Match Prediction and Best Bet
The stakes could not be more contrasting for this Saturday night clash. Hawthorn is fighting tooth and nail to hold onto a top four berth and guarantee a second chance in September, bringing absolute desperation from the opening bounce. Collingwood, despite their excellent recent form, is firmly locked into wildcard territory with little incentive to over-extend ahead of the elimination matches. That stark difference in motivation should prove the deciding factor. Expect Hawthorn to bring the intensity required to bounce back, control the tempo through the corridor, and clear the line.
Hawthorn -18.5
$1.85 (2.5 Units)
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Prop Bet
After a bit of a quiet patch, Jai Newcombe has lifted his form over the past three weeks with three straight games of 25 or more disposals, averaging 29 over that period. He’s also had 27 & 28 in his last two against the Magpies and 25+ in four of his last five against them.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals
$2.16
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Same Game Multi
Hawthorn to Win: The stakes are too high for the Hawks and they also have the class advantage here.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: As mentioned above, he’s in great form and also has great form in this specific matchup.
Lachie Schultz Anytime Goal Scorer: They isolated him deep a lot last week against the Eagles and even if they don’t do that here, he should still kick at least one goal.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 15th August
Time: 7:40pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Hawthorn $1.34 vs Collingwood $3.29
Line: -19.5
Points: 173.5
Where to Watch Hawthorn vs Collingwood
You can watch the Hawks vs Magpies live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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