The story of Round 21 was the amazing win by the Blues over the Lions to snap their winning streak. The Blues are now inside the top 10 and a real chance to play finals which is an amazing comeback by interim coach Josh Fraser. Adelaide got a percentage booster to moving into the top four, while Melbourne are also eyeing a top four spot with a great win over the Suns. At the other end of the ladder, the Tigers defeated the Eagles to jump off the bottom of the ladder and leave the Bombers as the favourites for the wooden spoon.
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2026 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page and check out the latest Brownlow Odds.
2026 AFL Brownlow Round 21 Overview
With Nick Daicos an unbackable favourite to win the Brownlow Medal, he doesn't need to do much more in season 2026. He's a chance to pick up a vote in Round 21 with another statisically good game, but it won't be the three votes this week. While it may be a quieter round for votes for many of the contenders, we should see Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Jai Newcombe and Max Gawn poll well in Round 21.
Check out our 2026 Round 21 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2026 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2026 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 21 Match Analysis
Collingwood 10.12.72 def by Geelong 15.7.97
The Cats jumped out of the blocks and did enough to record a strong win over the Pies to kick off the round. Oli Dempsey (29 disposals, 10 marks, 2 goals) was enormous on the wing, with Bailey Smith (28 disposals, 9 clearances), Tom Stewart (25 disposals, 6 marks) and Oli Henry (14 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) all having good games. Nick Daicos (35 disposals, 9 clearances) collected plenty of ball as usual but his influence was a little subdued, while Darcy Cameron (22 disposals, 7 marks, 29 hitouts) and Dan McStay (5 goals, 10 disposals, 9 tackles, 8 hitouts) also had a good night.
Oli Dempsey - 3
Dan McStay - 2
Nick Daicos - 0.5
Bailey Smith - 0.5
Fremantle 11.12.78 def Western Bulldogs 5.11.41
It was a dour Friday night affair as the Dogs flooded the backline, but ultimately the Dockers held their nerve and found a way to win well. Josh Treacy (13 disposals, 8 marks, 3 goals) was the difference in a low-scoring game, while Karl Worner (28 disposals, 13 marks) and Oscar McDonald (22 disposals, 12 marks) played their best games in purple. Ed Richards (26 disposals, 9 clearances) and Cooper Hynes (22 disposals, 2 goals) were best for the Dogs.
Karl Worner - 3
Josh Treacy - 2
Oscar McDonald - 1
St Kilda 13.10.88 def by Sydney 16.11.107
The Swans kicked 9 of the last 11 goals to run down the Saints to remain in second place on the ladder. Errol Gulden (34 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal), Chad Warner (25 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals), Isaac Heeney (22 disposals, 7 clearances, 2 goals) and Nick Blakey (28 disposals, 12 marks) were best for the Swans. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (24 disposals, 3 goals), Max Hall (23 disposals, 6 tackles, 3 goals) and Brad Hill (28 disposals) are a chance to pick up votes for the Saints.
Errol Gulden - 3
Chad Warner - 2
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 0.5
Max Hall - 0.5
Hawthorn 14.15.99 def North Melbourne 12.11.83
It was a familiar story for the Roos who were gallant in defeat as the Hawks stayed in touch with the top two on the ladder. Jai Newcombe (34 disposals, 6 marks, 12 clearances) and Jarman Impey (30 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) won plenty of ball with Nick Watson (5 goals, 10 disposals, 6 tackles) and Mabior Chol (20 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) lively up forward. Harry Sheezel (25 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles, 2 goals) was the stand out for the Roos.
Jai Newcombe - 3
Nick Watson - 2
Jarman Impey - 1
Port Adelaide 9.9.63 def GWS Giants 10.15.75
The Giants have copped some injuries but they still have a window open to a potential wildcard spot with a gritty win against the Power. Lachie Whitfield (29 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal), Stephen Coniglio (20 disposals, 8 tackles, 3 goals), Jake Stringer (15 disposals, 3 goals) and Lachie Ash (25 disposals) were the most important for the Giants in the victory. Jason Horne-Francis (29 disposals, 7 marks, 7 clearances, 1 goal) should be in the votes for the Power.
Lachie Whitfield - 3
Jason Horne-Francis - 2
Stephen Coniglio - 1
Carlton 24.10.154 def Brisbane 11.12.78
One of the upsets of the season saw the Blues annihilate the reigning premiers to climb into the top 10 on the ladder. Rising Star favourite Jagga Smith was awarded the Robert Walls Medal for best afield for his 29 disposals, 6 clearances and 2 goals. George Hewett (33 disposals, 11 marks, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Sam Walsh (27 disposals, 1 goal) were also busy at the coalface while Brodie Kemp (5 goals, 12 disposals, 8 marks) and Harry McKay (20 disposals, 10 marks, 3 goals) were great up forward. Will Ashcroft (32 disposals, 8 clearances, 2 goals) was best for the wounded Lions.
Jagga Smith - 3
George Hewett - 2
Brodie Kemp - 1
Richmond 12.12.84 def West Coast 9.19.73
The Eagles wasted their chances as Richmond lifted themselves back off the bottom of the ladder with a tight win. Tim Taranto (32 disposals, 9 tackles, 11 clearances, 1 goal) led the way, with Jack Ross (27 disposals, 1 goal), Toby Nankervis (19 disposals, 31 hitouts, 1 goal) and Sam Lalor (13 disposals, 3 goals) all influential. Harley Reid was back in the umpires’ good books with 6 free kicks in his 34 disposals and 9 clearances. Marcus Herbert (34 disposals) and Jake Waterman (16 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) were also good for the Eagles.
Tim Taranto - 3
Harley Reid - 2
Marcus Herbert - 1
Gold Coast 16.9.105 def by Melbourne 18.6.114
A competitive match saw the losing streak of Gold Coast continue with the Dees now eyeing off a top four spot. Max Gawn (25 disposals, 10 marks, 33 hitouts, 9 clearances) was enormous with Tom Sparrow (25 disposals, 12 tackles, 1 goal), Trent Rivers (29 disposals, 9 marks), Jake Bowey (29 disposals, 6 marks) and Joel Fitzgerald (23 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances, 2 goals) all winning plenty of ball. Matt Rowell (30 disposals, 9 tackles, 8 clearances) and John Noble (34 disposals, 10 marks, 7 tackles) were best for the Suns.
Max Gawn - 3
Matt Rowell - 2
Tom Sparrow - 1
Essendon 11.7.73 def by Adelaide 23.7.145
A good percentage booster for the Crows to finish the round as the Bombers slipped back to the bottom of the ladder. Riley Thilthorpe monstered the opposition to end with 5 goals from 15 disposals, 10 marks and 9 hitouts. Izak Rankine (23 disposals, 7 marks, 3 goals), Jordan Dawson (30 disposals, 9 clearances) and Billy Dowling (18 disposals, 11 marks, 3 goals) were next best for the Crows. Peter Wright was the standout for the Bombers with a bag of 6 goals from 17 disposals, 6 marks and 8 hitouts.
Riley Thilthorpe - 3
Izak Rankine - 2
Peter Wright - 0.5
Jordan Dawson - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
