AFL Round 21 rolls on with another intriguing four-game Saturday slate, headlined by a couple of wildcard-shaping contests and some tricky fantasy matchups.
We get things underway at Marvel Stadium where St Kilda takes on Sydney. The Swans have quietly established themselves as one of the premiership favourites, but the Saints have shown they can push the competition's best sides. Can they get the upset win to announce themselves as a genuine finals threat?
Attention then turns to Launceston as Hawthorn hosts North Melbourne. The Hawks enter as overwhelming favourites and are expected to control the game at their home away from home. The Roos will need to bounce back from a disappointing couple of weeks but their road to season’s end looks a tough one.
Saturday evening delivers arguably the closest game of the day, with Port Adelaide hosting the GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval. With less than a kick separating the two sides in the betting, this projects as a quality contest that should see plenty of fiercely-contested ball.
The slate concludes at Marvel Stadium where Carlton faces Brisbane. The Lions remain one of the competition's benchmark teams, but the Blues are capable of matching them on their day. The Blues will be desperate to stay in touch with a potential wildcard spot but the Lions are always a popular fantasy play. Let's dive into the Round 21 Saturday slate!
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 21 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Round 21 Saturday: Where to Attack?
The Saints and Swans are first up and it might be an interesting fantasy match up. The Saints have been collecting huge fantasy numbers in recent weeks but they come up against a Swans team who are particularly tough to play against. The Saints won’t find any easy ball, and tagging is most definitely going to be in effect, so we’ll have to see how this plays out.
Historically, the Saints have given up big numbers to the opposition defence but this has tightened up over the last ten rounds to the point where they are now close to the league average. Their main leak is to wingers and outside runners. They also give up big points to opposition general forwards.
The Hawks and Roos are expected to battle in a tight fantasy matchup, even with the Hawks favoured on the scoreboard. North have been pretty good all year from a fantasy perspective and are really only starting to concede points to the opposition designated kicker, while key forwards have always been an issue for the Roos.
The Hawks don’t give away anything and have a couple of positions where they excel. The Hawks are, by far and away, the toughest fantasy matchup in the league for wings and outside runners where they are a whopping 22 points better than league average over the last ten games. They are also the best in the league in the ruck where Lloyd Meek has been doing a great job. Definitely a tough game to exploit.
Port Adelaide and the Giants also have pretty solid fantasy profiles. The Power have tightened right up and sit around league average in most positions, with a slight advantage to the opposition in the designated kicker role.
The Giants have also righted the ship with no real areas of fantasy weakness. The ruck role that was formerly one of the league’s worst is now into around league average. Interestingly, the Giants have picked Kieran Briggs and retained Nick Madden this week, so they’ll be running with a two-ruck combo for what might be the first time this season.. They are the stingiest in the league to general defenders, and in the top three best to key forwards.
To cap off a common thread on this slate, the Blues and Lions don’t give away too much in terms of fantasy leaks either. Carlton have been giving up above average points in the ruck is probably the only real area you could target. They are slightly above average to inside mids but pretty solid everywhere else. In particular, they give up nothing to the designated kicker at almost 13 points better than league average which is easily the best in the league.
The main area that the Lions struggle with is against opposition key forwards, and that may only be harder this week with the suspension of Ty Gallop. Defenders have a hard time against Brisbane, including wings, general defenders and the designated kicker.
Overall, this is a tough slate without any of the leaky bottom teams to provide us with an obvious angle to attack. Instead, look more for pricing to help decide your lineups.
Game script: Swans wings/forwards, Hawks designated kicker, Lions rucks, Blues key forwards. Look towards pricing more than fantasy trends.
AFL Fantasy Round 21 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Billy Cootee ($6,000) is probably your best pick for a minimum-priced play on this slate. Cootee was okay for the Swans last week as he returned to the team with a score of 52 from 12 disposals and 2 goals. He hasn’t set the world on fire at AFL level yet, but his VFL pedigree is strong with some mammoth fantasy scores including a 150 and 141 this season. So he’s able to find the ball but he’ll need to hit the scoreboard as well to reach value here.
Finn Maginness ($6,240) is available on the discount rack this week as a decent value pick. Maginness has had some indifferent performances at AFL level, often being tasked with a tagging role that’s unfavourable to fantasy scoring. In the VFL his form has been strong, racking up 30+ touches and 100+ fantasy points most weeks. He has pumped out fantasy scores of 159, 140, 132 and 130 this season at VFL level, so the ceiling is there. It does seem likely that he’ll be asked to follow a Sheezel or LDU around the park, so we’ll have to see how that translates into scoring for us.
Cooper Trembath ($8,990) is an option in the ruck spot this week after pumping out a strong score of 90 last week. I’m not a fan of the rucks at all on this slate - far too much job sharing for my liking. Trembath is proving to be a dynamic option for the Roos as a leaper in the middle, but also a mobile high-marking target up forward. He gets plenty of opportunity for the Roos who struggle in both of those areas. Not the best match up against the Hawks, but happy to try and save some coin in the ruck and spend elsewhere.
AFL Fantasy Round 21 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Jase Burgoyne ($12,950) has had a good month for the Power with scores of 82, 95, 110 and 81 coming with more responsibility in the midfield. With Zak Butters injured, Burgoyne has been the one thrust into the middle with 52% and 42% CBAs the last fortnight, so the role and potential is there.
If you want to pivot at the same price point then George Hewett ($12,980), Mattaes Phillipou ($12,810) and Jy Simpkin ($12,920) are all in play.
AFL Fantasy Round 21 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Jarman Impey ($14,960) is starting to jump in price but his last two weeks have been phenomenal with scores of 137 and 147. It comes following injuries to other playmakers in the Hawks backline, in particular to Karl Amon. Impey is getting all the distributor points and he’s cashed in. North isn’t the greatest matchup but they have started to give up points to the designated kicker recently, the form of Impey is hard to ignore.
Will Ashcroft ($16,050) has also been in amazing form that is impossible to ignore. His last six weeks have produced 152, 134, 120, 142, 108 and 126 - simply outstanding. While Sheez and NAS are the top premiums on this slate, Sheez gets a tough matchup in the Hawks while NAS should be getting a close tag from James Jordan. It leaves Ashcroft as the top pick with a near $2k price saving as well.
I’m also happy to jump into Errol Gulden ($15,870) who was back to some of his best last week.
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 1st August
Melbourne - Sunny, 16 degrees.
Launceston - Partly sunny, 12 degrees.
Adelaide - Sunny, 15 degrees.
AFL Betting Markets Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
St Kilda ($2.66) vs Sydney Swans ($1.48)
Line: Sydney -13.5
Points: 181.5
Hawthorn ($1.10) vs North Melbourne ($7.00)
Line: Hawthorn -40.5
Points: 178.5
Port Adelaide ($1.78) vs GWS Giants ($2.08)
Line: Port Adelaide -3.5
Points: 169.5
Carlton ($3.72) vs Brisbane Lions ($1.28)
Line: Brisbane Lions -24.5
Points: 184.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
