The NRLW continues to roll on and this week the competition will participate in its version of Magic Round. All teams will pack up and head to Wagga for 2 days of non-stop rugby league action. The excitement is already high for this competition, and it is about to peak as the rugby league skills of players descends onto a regional town in NSW. After a strong week last week where we nailed all of our tips, Before You Bet is back to look at the game ahead this weekend with the hope of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
Check out our preview and NRLW Betting Tips for Round 5 below and good luck to everyone following along!
NRLW Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs Wests Tigers
Geohex Park – Saturday 1st August – 11:35am (AEST)
The Sharks grabbed their first win of the year last week with an upset 22-10 road victory over the Raiders. It is no surprise that this result coincided with improved execution; with 48% possession they completed at 74%, averaged 10.3m per carry, and had 10 line breaks. They will need to improve upon their 31 missed tackles but will take plenty of confidence away from that performance. The Tigers suffered a disappointing 48-10 home loss to the Roosters. Expected to struggle, they were outperformed in every area. With just 41% possession they completed at just 68%, made fewer than 1,000m, and had just 1 line break. Their early season standard appears to have deserted them.
The Sharks are strong favourites and rightly so. As improved as they were last week, the Tigers appeared to take a few steps backwards. With neither team changing their lineup ahead of this match, it is fair to say that the Sharks are over the price which should be offered. The Tigers are a capable team but appeared lost last week; when momentum doesn’t flow their way, their defence struggles to hold firm against the relentless attack of their opponents. The Sharks offer this across the field and now that they have a win to their name, should look to climb up the competition ladder with another positive performance here.
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters
Geohex Park – Saturday 1st August – 1:25pm (AEST)
Another week, another disappointing result for the Dragons. This time, they were defeated 28-8 by the Bulldogs on the road. Competitive in the first half, they couldn’t maintain the standard to push their opponents. Trying hard with a 75% completion rate with just 45% possession, they averaged just 7.7m per carry. Even having more line breaks (6 vs 5) couldn’t create more points for them on the scoreboard. There were no such issues for the Roosters in their commanding 48-10 road victory over the Tigers. Dominating possession (59%) and completing well (79%), they were too strong for their opponents. This saw them average 8.7m per carry and create 9 line breaks, while missing just 11 tackles. The quality across the park will be challenging for opponents to match.
There is only one possible outcome in this contest and that is a Roosters victory. The Dragons do not have the quality to compete with them for one half, let alone a full game. The hardest thing in this game is finding value. The line (30.5) is large, and rarely do you see teams win by such a margin unless they possess a powerful attacking unit. The Roosters have exactly this and after their recent scare against a low-ranked opponent, will need to come out and make a statement here. The Dragons are battling a host of injuries while the Roosters welcome back Naividi who was ruled out on the eve of the Grand Final last year. This one could get ugly if the Dragons are not careful.
Canberra Raiders vs North Queensland Cowboys
Geohex Park – Saturday 1st August – 3:15pm (AEST)
It was a disappointing 22-10 home loss for the Raiders to the Sharks, failing to build on their strong start to the season but only have themselves to blame. With 52% possession they completed at just 65%. This meant their 9.7m per carry went to waste. They managed just 2 line breaks and missed 41 tackles to add to their shortcomings. The Cowboys were far more disappointing in their 34-6 home defeat by the Titans. Still winless to start the season, the Cowboys were lost for answers to the quality of their opponents. They were always going to struggle with just 40% possession (75% completion rate) and making just over 1,000m. Their defence was poor, allowing 5 line breaks and missing 30 tackles. To put it simply, this team isn’t executing when it matters.
The jury is still out on the Raiders and after being exposed last week, the Cowboys are a chance again. It would be foolish to invest on them in a head-to-head market though, but the line does come into play. Like the Sharks, they are a dangerous opponent for the Raiders; they possess potential and when it clicks, they will be hard for most teams to stop. The Raiders defensive ability remains questionable and for them to win this game by such a large margin is unlikely and worth the risk.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos
Geohex Park – Sunday 2nd August – 11:35am (AEST)
It was the best version of the Bulldogs last week as they recorded a strong 28-8 victory over the Dragons at home. Susceptible to lapses in execution, the Bulldogs were strong, especially in the second half, to outclass their opponents. Playing patiently (55% possession & 88% completion rate), they dominated every area, including making 529 PCM’s. This was well supported by their defence also as they missed just 20 tackles. The Broncos were also at their best in their 30-12 home victory over the Knights. Potentially a tricky contest, the Broncos went in level at HT (12-all) but set a new standard in the second half to set-up victory. There is no doubt their power in the middle set a strong platform for this; with an equal share of possession and inferior completion rate (75% vs 76%), they averaged 10.3m per carry and made 580 PCM’s, giving them the opportunity to create 9 line breaks.
As good as they were last week, the quality of opponent will be far greater for the Bulldogs this week. They were lucky to get away with simple errors at times against the Dragons and a team like the Broncos will make them pay for their mistakes. The Broncos do take some time to find momentum in matches but when they do, few can stop them. Expect the Bulldogs to be competitive for parts of this game but ultimately, the Broncos should salute comfortably. Rather than take on the line, play it safe with a margin and increase your stake on this option.
New Zealand Warriors vs Gold Coast Titans
Geohex Park – Sunday 2nd August – 1:25pm (AEST)
It was a narrow escape for the Warriors in their 14-12 road victory over the Eels last week. Expected to win with ease, the Warriors struggled for momentum. Owing to their opponent’s improvement, this was supported by their own poor execution. With 48% possession they completed at just 70% and averaged 9.4m per carry. While good in this area, they couldn’t convert it into points. Missing 34 tackles also gave opportunities to their opponents and must be an area they improve upon in coming weeks. The Titans were anything but troubled in their 34-6 road victory over the Cowboys. Appearing a class above, they dominated every area of the match. With 60% possession they completed at 84%, averaged 9.3m per carry, and had 717 PCM’s. Their defence was also strong, missing just 14 tackles.
If you do not already, it is time to believe the hype for the Titans. They are a quality team which not only executes strongly in matches but performs to a standard which few can match. The Warriors are a capable team but last week flattered them somewhat. A team like the Titans will make them pay for their mistakes. With a few injuries plaguing the Warriors and a settled Titans line-up ready to face off, it is unlikely that the line on offer will be enough for the Titans at the end of this contest.
Parramatta Eels vs Newcastle Knights
Geohex Park – Sunday 2nd August – 3:15pm (AEST)
The Eels remained winless but came the closest they have all season in their 14-12 home loss to the Warriors. With 52% possession and an 88% completion rate, they gave themselves every chance of causing an upset but couldn’t find more points. Their opponents eventually built enough pressure to steal the result. The 40 missed tackles for the Eels didn’t aid their cause. The Knights were also defeated but their lack of class hurt their chances in their 30-12 road loss to the Broncos. Locked at 12-all at HT, they couldn’t build enough pressure in the second half despite a superior completion rate (75% vs 76%). They were outplayed in all areas and missed 31 tackles to contribute to their woe.
The Knights are the superior team in this match but there is something positive building at the Eels. They will not be kept quiet in this match. The Knights need to be at their best if they are to prevail and while having the quality, their opponents could disrupt their momentum. Do not underestimate the impact of a tough game last week for the Knights; the Broncos are a team which take a lot of energy out of an opponent and that gives the Eels yet another chance. It would need a completed 70-minute performance for them to prevail and for that reason, the preferred option is for the Knights to win by fewer than 2 converted tries.
