Three games on offer for our AFL Round 12 Saturday slate as the bye rounds get underway. First up, it looks like a one-sided affair as the second-placed Swans are big favourites against the second-last Tigers. The match of the round is at the Gabba where the Lions will be looking to bounce back from a poor loss as they host the top-of-the-ladder Dockers. If the Dockers can get the win here then they will become the premiership favourites. The evening match looks a good one for fantasy as the Bulldogs will be looking to recover their season against the Pies.
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 12 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Round 12 Saturday: Where to Attack?
The Swans are near ten-goal favourites against the Tigers who easily give up the most points in the league to the opposition key forwards. So it’s clearly a great spot to target the Swans talls who could be in for a massive day. Swans players are in play all over the ground as the Tigers also give up big points to inside midfielders, and above average points to wingers and general defenders. As one of the strongest teams in the league, it’s no surprise that there’s no holes in the Swans armoury so it’s going to be hard to select any Richmond players.
The Brisbane versus Fremantle game is expected to be a lot tighter, and with two of the best teams in the league in action, it’s hard to find too many areas to exploit in this one. Brisbane’s numbers to opposition forwards have been skewed after last week’s mauling so we’ll treat that as an anomaly and try to steer clear of this match up.
The Dogs and Pies offers a couple of good avenues to attack. Both teams give up plenty of points behind the ball. The Pies are the leakiest team to the opposition designated kicker, while also giving up above average points to opposition defenders and outside runners. The Dogs also give up big points in this area of the ground, so it could script a game where we're looking for the ball to ping between both backlines.
Both the Pies and Dogs have been giving up points in the ruck with a variety of personnel filling those spots in recent weeks. The Dogs welcome back Tim English which should strengthen them in that regard, while Darcy Cameron will be flying solo this week with Oscar Stein out injured so he should get a boost. It should provide an intriguing duel.
Game script: Swans key forwards and mids, Dogs/Pies defenders
AFL Fantasy Round 12 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Harry Kyle ($6,000) is a Swans Academy pick who is making his debut this week in a favourable match up against the Tigers. Hasn’t set the world on fire in the VFL from a fantasy perspective but has had 26 and 23 disposals in the last fortnight across half back. At minimum price, he shouldn’t have to do too much to hit value, and gives us some salary relief so we can include some premiums.
Peter Ladhams ($7,610) finally gets his opportunity with Brodie Grundy resting against the lowly Tigers. Ladhams has been completely dominant in the VFL this season with a 117 average, including monster scores of 177 and 139. He’s getting a ton of hitouts but also lots of disposals around the ground, so he’ll be licking his chops at the opportunity to assume the #1 ruck spot against the Tigers who have been running around without a real ruckman for most of the season. Will be a popular play but an easy lock-and-load value play today.
If you want to pivot then Hayden McLean ($8,770) also comes into the Swans side, while Joel Amartey ($9,160) should also enjoy the match up. I’d also be looking to include Charlie Curnow ($9,960) who hasn’t been in great form but is known to prey on weak defences.
AFL Fantasy Round 12 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Jordan De Goey ($12,190) has been putting together a great little run of form over the past month with scores of 118, 86 and 112 recently, including matches against the Cats and Swans, as he’s had plenty of time running through the midfield. His CBAs have been 79%, 96% and 57% during that period so he’s clearly looking fit and enjoying the role. The Dogs are a tough midfield but he’s been able to score against quality teams recently, so I like his price to continue his form.
AFL Fantasy Round 12 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Bailey Dale ($15,360) gets the best match up in the league for designated kickers against the Pies this week, so he’ll be ready to take plenty of kick-ins and get on the end of some cheap +3’s in the back half! Dale has been taking the majority of the kick-ins this season for the Dogs and has played on 91% of the time, so there’s some free points right there. His 6-game average is 104.7 with a high of 129 in that time, so we know that the ceiling is there for him to go large!
Isaac Heeney ($16,390) is our pick for premium mids this week, but there's a number of great choices available on this slate. Heeney gets the soft matchup against the Tigers mids who concede huge points to opposition midfields, and he's ready to cash in. Heeney's last 3 have averaged 96 which is more like his floor, as before that he went on a run of 110, 104, 145 and 126. Those are the numbers we're hoping for here.
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 30th May
Sydney - Mostly sunny, 20 degrees
Brisbane - Sunny, 22 degrees
Melbourne - Light rain, 17 degrees (under roof)
AFL Betting Markets Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
Sydney ($1.03) vs Richmond ($12.50)
Line: Sydney -55.5
Points: 180.5
Brisbane ($1.68) vs Fremantle ($2.20)
Line: Brisbane -6.5
Points: 183.5
Western Bulldogs ($1.56) vs Collingwood ($2.44)
Line: Western Bulldogs -10.5
Points: 176.5
Also, be sure to check out our full
AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
