Round 9 in the AFL continues on Friday night with a double-header for fans to sink their teeth into. The first match to get underway will be at the Gabba with Brisbane hosting Carlton. Will it be all one-way traffic like the odds/form suggests, or can the Blues show some fight?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Lions vs Blues below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Brisbane vs Carlton Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 9
Lions Back on Track
The Lions return to the Gabba this Friday night in great touch, sitting inside the top four and looking like the team to beat once again. Coming off a ruthless 143 to 79 demolition of Essendon, their high scoring offence is currently firing on all cylinders, averaging nearly sixteen goals a match this season. Their dominance in the air and ability to keep possession has been a key factor, taking an impressive 123 marks per game to control the corridor and punish opposition turnovers. With a potent forward line benefiting from elite supply out of the centre clearances, Brisbane is systematically dissecting teams on their home deck and proving why the Gabba remains one of the toughest road trips in football.
Blues Lacking Leadership
Carlton travels to Queensland in the midst of a catastrophic freefall, having lost eight consecutive matches to sit 16th on the ladder. The most damning indictment of their season is a complete inability to compete after the main break, with the team currently holding a dismal 35.44 percent scoring percentage in second halves. While they often start games with intensity, the Blues have led at half time in six of their eight recent losses only to be completely overrun. Without a functional forward target to replace the scoring output of Charlie Curnow, the Blues are relying on Mitch McGovern to play above his weight, leaving them vulnerable to a Brisbane side that feasts on transition turnovers.
H2H History & Betting Trends
Brisbane has held the clear upper hand by winning seven of the last ten encounters between these two clubs. While the Blues managed to snatch a one point thriller in early 2024, the Lions have since responded with decisive victories, including a 37 point win in their most recent meeting late last season. Betting trends highlight a significant discrepancy in how these teams finish matches, as Brisbane has covered the line in four of their last five home fixtures. Conversely, Carlton has been a major liability for punters, failing to cover the spread in seven of their eight matches this year.
One-Way Traffic? Here’s our Best Bet!
The 43.5 point spread is a massive line, but the mismatch in aerial dominance and conditioning makes a Brisbane blowout almost inevitable. The Lions average 35 more marks per game than Carlton, allowing them to methodically bypass a Blues defence that coughed up a staggering 23 marks inside fifty against St Kilda last week. While Carlton often competes early, they have been outscored by an average of six goals in second halves during this losing streak, frequently conceding massive runs of unanswered scores. Given Brisbane’s ability to maintain high intensity at home and Carlton's psychological fragility late in games, the Lions are primed to pull away and win in a blowout.
Brisbane -43.5
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane vs Carlton Prop Bet
Charlie Cameron had a bit of a down year in 2025 by his standards but looks to be right back to his best this season. He enters Friday night in some great form with 9 goals from his last 3 games, and now gets a look at a vulnerable Blues defence who don’t possess quality small defenders. We’ll be hearing Take Me Home, Country Roads on a number of occasions on Friday night.
Charlie Cameron 3+ Goals
$2.65
Brisbane vs Carlton Same Game Multi
Brisbane 40+: For the reasons mentioned above in our best bet.
Charlie Cameron 3+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Nic Newman & Ollie Florent 20+ Disposals: If the game goes to script, then the ball will be spending a lot of time in Carlton’s back half. Newman & Florent are two defenders who continue to clear the 20-disposal mark, with Newman hitting in 3 straight games and Florent in 5 straight.
Same Game Odds: $5.50 at Dabble
Brisbane vs Carlton Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Friday 8th May
Time: 7:30pm AEST
Location: Gabba, Brisbane
Odds: Brisbane $1.09 vs Carlton $7.50
Line: -43.5
Points: 186.5
Where to Watch Brisbane vs Carlton
You can watch the Lions vs Blues live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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