AFL Round 3 begins at the Cattery on Thursday night with Geelong hosting Adelaide from 7:30pm AEDT. The Cats are coming off a bye but before that secured a big comeback win against the Dockers, while the Crows will be looking to bounce back after their first loss of the season which came last Friday night against the Bulldogs
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Cats vs Crows below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Geelong vs Adelaide Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 3
Cats Fresh Off Comeback Win
Geelong returns to GMHBA Stadium this Thursday night looking to establish some consistency after an uneven start to their 2026 campaign. The Cats were soundly beaten in the Opening Round, suffering a 56-point loss to the Gold Coast Suns where they conceded a massive 125 points. They managed to respond last week against Fremantle, though it required a significant second-half effort to do so. After being completely outplayed in the first term and trailing by 35 points midway through the second quarter, they eventually ground out a 110-100 victory. Chris Scott will be forced to make at least one major change for this clash, with Patrick Dangerfield ruled out for one to two weeks with a minor calf injury, meaning he will miss the chance to face his former side.
Big Test for the Crows
Adelaide arrives in Victoria following a frustrating loss to the Western Bulldogs, where they showed immense character to fight back and hit the front in the final term before falling short at the death. Izak Rankine made his return in that clash but appeared slightly rusty as he adjusted to the pace of the game. Matthew Nicks has a significant headache with his leadership group as Rory Laird is sidelined for up to a fortnight with a calf issue, while skipper Jordan Dawson is a massive out due to calf tightness. With Taylor Walker also being rested to manage his load across consecutive six-day breaks, former North Melbourne tall Finnbar Maley has been called up to make his club debut.
Recent H2H History
The recent head-to-head history is heavily slanted in favour of the home side. Geelong has won eight of the last nine meetings between these two clubs, including an absolute stranglehold over the Crows at GMHBA Stadium that stretches back over two decades. Their lone meeting in 2025 was early in the season at Adelaide Oval, with the Cats coming from behind in the last quarter to win by 19 points.
Cats or Crows? Here’s Our Best Bet!
Given the significant personnel losses for the visitors, the Cats should be able to control the tempo of this contest from the outset. Missing Dawson, Laird, and Walker simultaneously leaves a massive hole in the Crows' spine and leadership that is incredibly difficult to cover away from home. Geelong is usually clinical at exploiting weakened oppositions on their own deck and should have the defensive stability to shut down any sporadic Adelaide surges. The expectation is for a comfortable home victory for the Cats.
Geelong -23.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Geelong vs Adelaide Prop Bet
Jake Soligo had an interrupted preseason due to some heart issues but has now built back into full fitness. 60% TOG in the first game and 71% last week, so you would expect that continues to trend upwards here, especially with their best midfielder in Dawson out of the side. Also, Rankine only attended 32% of CBA’s in his first game back from suspension, so it seems they’re easing him back into the midfield rotation as well after a lengthy absence. Should be plenty of midfield opportunity for Soligo here.
Jake Soligo 20+ Disposals
$2.25
Geelong vs Adelaide Same Game Multi
Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals: Last year’s Coleman Medal winner will get plenty of chances here as you would expect the Cats win the territory battle convincingly.
Bailey Smith & Max Holmes 25+ Disposals Each: The Cats midfield have a huge advantage here and I expect Smith and Holmes to take full advantage and find plenty of the ball.
Jake Soligo 20+ Disposals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Same Game Odds: $5.25 at Dabble
Geelong vs Adelaide Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Thursday 26th March
Time: 7:30pm AEDT
Location: GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Odds: Geelong $1.26 vs Adelaide $3.85
Line: Geelong -23.5
Points: 169.5
Where to Watch Geelong vs Adelaide
You can watch the Cats vs Crows clash on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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