As we’re all aware, Geelong and Brisbane will be facing off in the 2025 AFL Grand Final this Saturday, September 27th. We’ve already provided our full AFL Grand Final preview and betting tips, so now it’s time to take a look at the best value among all the popular player prop bet markets.
Check out our Geelong vs Brisbane Grand Final prop bets below, and don't forget to show your support for our free BYB content by joining one of our new Australian sports betting sites!
Geelong vs Brisbane Player Prop Bets: AFL Grand Final
Norm Smith Medal
The 2025 Norm Smith Medal race shapes as one of the most fascinating in recent memory, with several genuine contenders from both Geelong and Brisbane. If the Cats are to secure premiership glory, Bailey Smith looms as the standout. He has been in superb touch and sits as the favourite with most bookmakers at $7.50, a clear reflection of both his ball-winning ability and his impact in big games. His running power and ability to influence across four quarters make him the most likely to walk away with best on ground honours should Geelong salute.
Patrick Dangerfield also demands serious attention. Fresh off a superhuman performance against Hawthorn last week, where he collected 31 disposals and kicked three goals, he has surged into near favouritism just behind Smith. Dangerfield’s experience and ability to rise on the biggest stage means he remains a massive threat. Ollie Dempsey is another dark horse, after putting up 25 disposals and three goals in the Qualifying Final against Brisbane, where he was clearly best on ground.
For the Lions, Dayne Zorko offers clear value at $21. He polled three votes in both clashes against Geelong this season and had 35 disposals in the Qualifying Final. If Brisbane cause the upset, Zorko could be the one.
Also Consider: Dayne Zorko $21 (Bet365)
First Goal Scorer
The First Goal Scorer market is always one of the most enjoyable bets to place on Grand Final day. It’s unpredictable and often feels like a lottery, which is why the odds are so appealing. Favourites can certainly get the job done, but with so many factors at play — nerves, match-ups, even the bounce of the ball — value can often be found a little further down the board.
This year, Jeremy Cameron naturally tops the market at around $7.50. Fresh from winning the Coleman Medal with a massive 88 goals for the season, he’s the clear danger if Geelong get on top early. Lions spearhead Logan Morris, who has slotted 52 majors this year, is the next best in betting and will no doubt be popular among punters. However, we’ll be steering clear of the shorter-priced forwards and looking for some big value instead.
Interestingly, midfielders have kicked the first goal in 10 of the past 15 Grand Finals, underlining the randomness of this market. Ollie Dempsey, who kicked three goals against Brisbane from his wing just a fortnight ago, is a standout at $21 and is my top pick. For the Lions, Callum Ah Chee represents serious value at the same quote, especially after his four-goal haul in last year’s decider.
Also Consider: Callum Ah Chee $21 (Bet365)
Most Disposals Group A
Bailey Smith sits as the $3 favourite to collect the most disposals in ‘Group A’ which includes all the heavy hitters. He averaged 31 disposals a game across the season and capped off his consistency with a third-place finish in the Brownlow Medal. Smith’s work rate and ability to find the football make him a worthy favourite, and if Geelong get on top in midfield, he will be central to it.
The next in the market is Will Ashcroft at $3.25, and he too brings serious credentials. Averaging 27 disposals this season, he is already a proven performer on the biggest stage. Ashcroft was outstanding in last year’s Grand Final, winning the Norm Smith Medal with 30 disposals, which was second only to Lachie Neale with 35. While Neale has the pedigree, his recovery from a calf injury makes him far too risky to back.
Dayne Zorko, at $5.50, looks the value pick. He had a game-high 33 disposals in Round 15 against Geelong, earning the three Brownlow votes, and then backed it up with a dominant 35 in the recent Qualifying Final to again top all players. He also polled three Brownlow votes in their Round 3 meeting with 28 touches. With such a strong track record, Zorko looms as the smart play.
AFL Grand Final Promotions
Leading sportsbook Dabble have gone all out for the AFL Grand Final, offering a number of quality markets for punters to get involved in. We've listed a couple of their 'Daily Dabbles' below!
- Get $2.75 for Will Ashcroft & Logan Morris to combine for 35+ Disposals & 2+ Goals. - Max Bet $25
- Get $3.40 for Bailey Smith & Jeremy Cameron to combine for 40+ Disposals & 3+ Goals. - Max Bet $25
- Get $2.55 for one of Bailey Smith, Max Holmes, Will Ashcroft and Hugh McCluggage to win the Norm Smith Medal. - Max Bet $25
Also, Betr are offering $6.00 for EITHER Patrick Dangerfield or Will Ashcroft to win the Norm Smith Medal. Max stake $20. If you fancy those odds, get involved by clicking the banner below.
