The ladder-leading Raiders will look to keep their spot at the summit of the table, as they play host to the Knights in the NRL on Sunday afternoon. The Raiders are currently sporting a league-best 8-game winning streak, and with the Knights struggling down in 14th, this could be all one-way traffic in the Nation’s Capital.
Raiders vs Knights Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 21
Raiders Rushing Towards Minor Premiership
The Raiders are riding the wave of an 8-game winning streak, and with a decent draw ahead of them, are in prime position to take their first Minor Premiership since 1994, in what would make them the first Minor Premiers since the 2012 season that wasn’t named the Panthers, Storm, or Roosters.
Last week, the Raiders took on the Eels at home, where they closed massive 14.5-point favourites. The Raiders struggled for 40 minutes during the game, trailing 16-12 at halftime, despite leading 12-0 after just 8 minutes. It was a concerning 40 minutes for the Raiders; however, they were able to turn it around, scoring five tries in the final 28 minutes to run away with the game, winning 40-16. The Raiders dominated statistically, running for almost 2000 metres, including 700 post contact metres. They also managed 12-line breaks and 19 offloads, in a dominant second half attacking performance. The Raiders had contributors all across the field, with 10 players running for over 100 metres.
Which Knights Team Will Show up?
The Knights’ season has hit the skids, with the losses of Kalyn Ponga, Fletcher Sharpe, and Dylan Lucas. Add to that three straight losses, and it would be easy to forgive the players to have their focus on the 2026 season. You couldn’t tell last week though, as the Knights went within a lucky bounce of beating the Warriors, as they led 15-14 in the final minute, before a Leka Halasima try put the Warriors ahead for good. The Knights were the better team for mine, and realistically only lost the game due to their poor goal kicking (0/3). Dane Gagai again looked good at the back, running for 152 metres, breaking the line twice, scoring a try and breaking 5 tackles, whilst Greg Marzhew was his usual beastly self, running for close to 200 metres, busting three tackles, scoring a try and setting up another.
Have the Knights got another big effort in them, or are they all done after that heart breaking loss last week? If it’s the former, this could be a tight contest, if the latter, look out.
Raiders vs Knights Recent History
This has been a back-and-forth rivalry since the 2022 season, with both teams winning four of the past eight games played.
The Raiders travelled to McDonald Jones Stadium a month ago to the day, where they closed 6.5-point road favourites, with a low total of 43.5. The Raiders led comfortably 22-6 with just 15 minutes remaining, before the Knights scored two late tries to cut the deficit to just four points, but the Raiders held on, winning 22-18. Kaeo Weekes was terrific, running for close to 300 metres, breaking the line three times, and scoring a try. Corey Horsburgh was also huge, running for just under 200 metres and making 38 tackles, reminding everyone how good he has been this season.
Dour Conditions Point to Dour Contest
The Raiders opened 12.5-point favourites on the look ahead, reopening at the same number on Monday. Raiders money has come through during the week, and they now sit as 14.5-point favourites. I make the Raiders right on 14.5-point favourites, and don’t see a tonne of value here. The outcome of this matchup largely depends on which Knights team shows up, and without knowing their motivation levels, I’ll steer clear of the spread.
The total opened 45.5 and has been bet down slightly to 44.5. I fully agree with the total moving down and would not at all be surprised to see this drop lower. As mentioned, the total four weeks ago closed 43.5, and I don’t see any reason as to why it should be set higher this week. My fair total for the game is 38.5, and I obviously love the under here.
The Knights have gone under at a staggering 83%, the most unders in the league this season. On the flip side, the Raiders have been hitting overs at the highest clip in the NRL (67%), however I maintain my love of the under. The weather looks cold and wet, and I’ll back this one going under.
Under 44.5 points
$1.91 (2 Units)
Raiders vs Knights Player Prop Bet: Savage too Slick for Knights
Our Best Prop Bet: Savage 1+ Tryu
The Knights are unlike most teams in the NRL, as their left edge defence is actually worse than their right. That’s good news for the right edge of the Raiders, and the man on the end of that side of the field should benefit. Savage has 10 tries this season, make it 11 here.
Xavier Savage (1+ try)
$1.83
Same Game Multi: Raiders vs Knights
Leg 1: Under 45.5 points – See write up above for best bet.
Leg 2: X Savage (1+ try) – See Best Prop Bet.
Leg 3: D Gagai (1+ try) – Gagai has looked great at fullback for the Knights, and I expect him to be in the try scoring mix here. Is at a great price and really ups the payout for the multi.
Raiders vs Knights Better Odds & Match Info
Location: GIO Stadium - Canberra
Weather: Raining, 11 degrees
Odds: Raiders ($1.20) vs Knights ($4.60)
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