The Warriors have been one of the surprise packets to start the season, sitting in third position after 6 wins in the opening two months of the competition. They get a chance to consolidate that spot this week, as they take on a Dragons team that has fell off over the past two weeks, after a solid month of football prior. If the Dragons can regain that form, this should be a cracking contest.
Also, don’t forget to head to our NRL tips page for more previews, analysis and betting tips for every NRL match of every round!
St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors
Location: WIN Stadium – Wollongong
Date: Saturday, 10th May
Time: 5:30pm AEST
Odds: Dragons ($2.15) vs Warriors ($1.70)
Line: Warriors -2.5
Points: 46.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Dragons come in off their second straight loss last week, going down 34-28 to the Tigers. It was the first game after Head Coach Shane Flanagan wielded the axe, dropping halfback Lachlan Ilias for youngster Lyhkan King-Togia. Whilst King-Togia looked good, it wasn’t enough against the Tigers, despite the Dragons making a remarkable 12-line breaks.
The Warriors meanwhile managed their 3rd straight win last week, as they snuck by the Cowboys 30-26 in an enthralling contest. Luke Metcalf was tremendous for the Warriors, scoring two tries whilst creating two, breaking 7 tackles and breaking the line twice. The obvious concern for the Warriors would be the 36 missed tackles and allowing a massive 1818 metres, and 614 post contact metres from the Cowboys. The return of James Fisher-Harris can’t come fast enough.
The Dragons and Warriors met once last season, in round 7 at this very venue. The Warriors closed 8.5-point road favourites, with a total of 43.5. Despite an early try to the Warriors, it was all Dragons, as they ran in five unanswered tries to take the win 30-12. Ben Hunt was the difference, as the former Dragon set up three tries, created two-line breaks, broke the line once himself, and scored a try. He also dominated with the boot, kicking for 624 metres. Without Hunt this week, can the Dragons put on a similar performance?
The Warriors opened 2.5-point favourites for this round 10 clash, and at the time of writing Dragons money has entered the market, with the Warriors now a 1.5-point favourite. I make this game basically a pick em’ too, and really don’t see any value in the spread for this game. I think it’s too close to call and would be surprised if either team won this in a blowout.
As for the total, it opened 45.5 and has been bet up to 47.5. My fair total is 44.5, so I do see a little bit of value in the under, however the way the Warriors game went last week, I’ll steer clear of the total here.
So, the best bet will be for this to be a tight game of football. Whilst I believe the Warriors are the better team, they come into this one after two extremely tight wins, whilst also doing plenty of travelling over the past month. The Dragons need the win and will keep this one tight.
Either team to win by less than 10.5 points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Throughout the 2025 NRL season we’ll be putting together a fun same game multi for every match at BoomBet using their BetShare feature.
To follow our multi, just click on the BoomBet BetShare button below and our same game multi selections will be added straight into your bet slip on BoomBet. You can then enter how much you wish to wager, and with a single click, your bet has been placed!
Leg 1: Warriors ML – The better team, the Warriors should just sneak home here.
Leg 2: D Watene-Zelezniak (1+ try) – First game of the season for DWZ, has shown he can score at a great clip for the Wahs, scoring 39 tries in 44 games over the past two years.
Leg 3: V Holmes (1+ try) – The Warriors right edge has been concerning defensively, and with a new winger likely on the right in DWZ, it should give Holmes plenty of opportunities to score a try.
SGM Odds: $7.50 at BoomBet
