The Rabbitohs desperately need a bounce back, after getting blown off the park last week by the Knights. It won’t be easy, as they take on a Broncos team who will surely be desperate to show that their loss to the Panthers last week was an aberration. A fascinating night cap on Friday night for NRL fans and bettors alike.
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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Brisbane Broncos
Location: Accor Stadium – Sydney Olympic Park
Date: Friday, 9th May
Time: 8:00pm AEST
Odds: Rabbitohs ($3.75) vs Broncos ($1.28)
Line: Broncos (-10.5)
Points: 49.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Rabbitohs took on a Knights team that hadn’t score more than 14 points since round 2 last week during Magic Round and would be forgiven for thinking they had a great chance at the 2 points. Unfortunately, a laundry list of injuries and suspensions left the Rabbitohs down on troops, and they were never in the game, going down 30-4, with their only try a consolation try to Isaiah Tass in the 67th minute. The Bunnies missed 49 tackles, whilst allowing the Knights’ anaemic attack to create 11-line breaks and run for 2175 metres.
The Broncos had their annual “away” game at home last week during Magic Round, as they took on the reeling Panthers. Money poured in on the Broncos all week, but despite an early try to Ben Hunt to lead 6-0, the Broncos were completely dominated by a Panthers team looking more like we expected them to. The stats across most categories were pretty even, but the Panthers were far more polished in the redzone, scoring five tries to one.
These teams met twice last season, with the honours split one-apiece. They met in round 2 at Suncor Stadium, with the Broncos closing 7.5-point home favourites, with a total of 42.5. In what proved a tough battle for the opening 50 minutes, the Broncos pushed ahead in a 25-minute period through the middle of the second half, scoring three unanswered tries to win 28-18. They met again in round 15 at Accor Stadium, with the Broncos this time going off as 1.5-point road favourites, with a total of 44.5. With the Broncos missing Adam Reynolds and Reece Walsh, it was the Rabbitohs who looked the far better side, leading 22-0 with a little over 10 minutes remaining. Two late tries to Deine Mariner closed the gap, but it wasn’t enough, as the Rabbitohs won 22-12.
This week, the Broncos were 8.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before pushing out to 10.5-point favourites after the poor performance from the Rabbitohs last weekend. This is pretty close to bang on my number for the game, however I very much side with the Broncos here. They’ve got into a habit of blowing out teams when they are on, and the Rabbitohs will give the Broncos a great opportunity to bounce back to form this weekend.
The total opened 47.5 and has been heavily bet up to 49.5. It looks likely to go higher, and I’ll look to bite back on the under before kick off here, as I make a fair total 45.5. I was bitten last week with betting unders, so it won’t be my best bet, but I’ll be looking to bet it myself.
Broncos -10.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Under 48.5 points – See above, love the under here.
Leg 2: L Mitchell (1+ try) – Latrell is back and named at fullback, Latrell has zero tries this season, and he will want to put his stamp on the game on Friday to confirm his place in the Blues team.
Leg 3: D Mariner (1+ try) – Two tries against the Broncos at this ground last season, Mariner knows how to find the line on the wing, and his price is great.
SGM Odds: $10.00 at BoomBet
