Week 11 of the NFL season gets underway on Friday with a huge AFC North divisional rivalry meeting between the Steelers and Browns in Cleveland starting from 12.20pm! As usual, we have a full preview and tips for some of the key games across the Week 11 slate below.
NFL Week 11 Betting Tips
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Friday 12.20pm AEDT)
Despite key injuries, the Steelers are playing as a team unit after 4 straight wins, which has them back in the AFC playoff race. In a 17-12 win over the Rams last week, the Steelers rallied after falling behind 7-0 in the first minute and rattled Jared Goff with 2 picks / 4 turnovers. With their next 3 games against the Browns (twice) and Bengals, this period should really set up their run to the playoffs. They should also get starting RB James Conner back from injury and Pittsburgh should take advantage of the Browns 27th ranked run D.
The Browns ended a 4 game skid with an important 19-16 win over the Bills and sit 3rd in the AFC North with a 3-6 record. Mayfield tossed 2 touchdown passes and Nick Chubb continued his good season with 116 yards on the ground. The other positive was Kareem Hunt's 74 total yards in his first game for the Browns. So he gives the Browns another weapon in both the running game to give Chubb a rest and provides speed out of the backfield in the passing game.
Interestingly, the Steelers are underdogs for this clash and we can't back against their improved defence. They've been the key in this 4 game winning streak as their offence struggles with injury. But the return of James Conner from injury should help them control the clock against this Browns team. Meanwhile, the Browns are still unproven in Primetime and have struggled at home this season (1-3 overall). Pittsburgh have also covered in 6 of their last 7 games and they're 9-2-1 ATS after covering the week before.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (Monday 12.20pm AEDT)
Chicago is back in the NFC playoff race after snapping a 4 game losing streak against the Lions with the 20-13 result. Mitchell Trubisky showed signs of life with 3 touchdown passes and Chicago's defence was too good for Lions backup QB Jeff Driskel. So they'll look to continue the momentum against the Rams offence and Jared Goff.
It's a similar story for the struggling LA Rams as their offence is nothing like last season's Super Bowl unit. They were held to just 12 points in Pittsburgh last week and that included a defensive TD. Goff had a terrible outing with 2 picks and 4 sacks. Todd Gurley just isn't getting enough carries for his production and they're missing star wideout Brandin Cooks with concussion. It's also rare to see Cooper Kupp finish a game with a doughnut in terms of catches / yards.
Both sides have struggled with consistency this season and this could be a case of which team makes fewer mistakes. But we have to like the Under considering the last meeting and the Under trends. Chicago came away with a 15-6 victory on their home turf in 2018 and they hold a 4-0 Unders record on the road against a team with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Rams are 4-1 against the Under at home and hold a 4-0 Unders record in their last 4 overall games.
Total points UNDER 42
$1.80
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Tuesday 12.15pm AEDT)
The positive out of the Chiefs 35-32 road loss to the Titans was the return of superstar QB Patrick Mahomes. He returned from a knee injury with an impressive 3 touchdown and 446-yard performance. But it was a similar story of the Chiefs D just not getting it done. They gave up 225 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns. They can't rely on Mahomes to save them all the time so the Chiefs defence just needs to stand up. It won't get much easier this week as they face Chargers RB Melvin Gordon and the likes of Keenan Allen.
Los Angeles' season is on the line in this clash as they sit 3rd in the division with a 4-6 record. They fell to the Raiders last Friday in a shootout (26-24) and have a tough run home. Their gameplan in this matchup should be exploiting the Chiefs mediocre run defence with Melvin Gordon. He's come to life with 3 touchdowns on the ground over the last 2 weeks with a total of 42 carries / 188 yards.
The unique factor in this AFC West rivalry matchup will be the venue as the two sides meet in Mexico. So the home field advantage between a divisional rival can be ruled out. With two explosive offences in action, we have to like the Over. Last week, the Chiefs and Titans totalled 67 points and Kansas City holds a nice 9-1 Overs record after allowing 350+ total yards. Meanwhile, the Chargers offence should enjoy a favourable matchup against the Chiefs struggling D, especially in the running game.
Total points OVER 52.5
$1.98
