Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Newcastle on Saturday, November 16th.
The inaugural running of the $1million The Hunter headlines the standalone meeting, with the Group 3 Spring Stakes and the Max Lees Classic also featuring on the card.
The track should race in the Good 4 range with the rail in the True position.
Check out @Tim_Tips' race-by-race preview below.
Newcastle Racing Tips: Saturday, November 16th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (2) Bobbing
Best Value: Race 3 - (9) Legendofoz
Looks a good race for the favourite (7) Falcon Island, who won the Coonamble Cup two starts ago before a 2nd placing over this distance last time out. Interesting to see the tactics here with the stablemate also a leader, so I'd expect Falcon Island to take the box seat behind the top weight. He should be going close. (5) Sir Pippin ran well first up and has won two from three when second up. The query with him is Glyn Schofield on board, who has ridden just two winners from 39 starters for Chris Waller this season and just three winners from his past 100 rides, so that doesn't fill you with much confidence.
The two-year-old feature of the day sees a good little field assembled even though it's low on numbers. The market looks to have this about right. (7) Tilia Rose has trialled well leading into this. In her first trial, she went to the line with Dame Giselle, who then came out and bolted in to win the Golden Gift last weekend. That looks a pretty good form reference for this! She won her most recent trial and should prove very hard to beat. (5) Panna Cotta also trialled alongside a smart on in See You Soon, who ran 2nd in the Golden Gift after winning on debut at Randwick. Mark newnham is flying and he should give a good sight.
The Highways are always pretty tough and this is no different but there's two I'll be backing. (17) Weather Channel will be my top pick at $9.50, but it needs to gain a start first (need one more scratching). It ran 3rd in a Highway at Randwick two starts ago, beaten only a length, and had no luck in another Highway at Rosehill last start. He was held up most of the straight and never really got clear running. The blinkers go back on and Rachel King replaces Jean Van Overmeire. Looks good odds if it gets a start. (9) Legendofoz is a huge price at $41. It finished midfield in a Highway at Randwick last start and was held up badly in the straight, only really getting clear late in the race. It's run 2nd at its only start at this track and distance and could be a blowout chance.
Value: (9) Legendofoz $41
(17) Weather Channel
$9.50
This is a terrible race and anything could win. There's three at odds I'll have something small on. (9) Ballistica costs herself with her racing pattern but she's been a bit unlucky not to finish closer in a few of her races this prep. She didn't get any luck in the run last start and also pulled up with a deep cut to one of her legs. She needs absolutely everything to go her way but when it does she can be a fairly handy mare. (11) Super Cyclone has run 2nd in her first two starts this prep. Comes into this third up and gets to a distance she's undefeated at. Jason Collett sticks with her rather than Ballistica and at double figure odds she appeals. (13) Pinup Miss drops 11kg from last start, where she ran 2nd at Muswellbrook. Her form last prep was actually pretty reaosnable and she ran in a strong race here first up. Third up, significantly down in weight, drawn well, can improve. Back all three.
Value: (9) Ballistica $9.00 & (13) Pinup Miss $14
The $7.00 for (6) Indy Car looks pretty juicy here. He was beaten 3.3L by (1) Rule The World last start and Rule The World gets a 3.5kg weight swing in his favour today, so Indy Car's certainly up against it on that basis, but I think he can turn the tables with the right run. He was absolutely butchered last start, where Tommy Berry sat last on the fence and then zigged where he should have zagged all the way down the straight. He still hit the line well and should have been much closer to the winner. They itnended to sit closer in the run that day but he jumped slow. If he can jump cleaner today and sit closer, I think he's a good winning chance, and at the very least a place chance. Rule The World will get out and make his own luck. He's undefeated from three career starts so it's hard to say he can't win again. (7) Kavalmo is certainly capable of winning. He returns from a trip to Melbourne and gets blinkers on for the first time.
Race 6 - The Hunter (Market)
The inaugural running of The Hunter attracts a reasonable field. It looks like I'm the only one who's not particularly interested in taking $3.60 about (2) Graff, a horse that hasn't won since August last year when he won his first three starts. He's been running against the A-graders, but I think you're brave taking those odds about him. (4) Brave Song draws horribly here but he's had no luck all prep. The form guide says he's run 8th in all three starts this campaign, but he never saw daylight second up and then struggled to get clear running behind Pierata and Trekking last start in the Redzel Stakes. He's a good horse on his day, he just needs a few things to go right. At double figure odds I'll be backing him here. (5) Tactical Advantage is another horse that needs things to go right but he showed what he can do at Flemington last start when he gets things to suit. He's another at double figure odds that looks a good price. (1) Le Romain hasn't won in a while but his first up run behind Pierata and Trekking in the Redzel Stakes was very good. He's never missed a place at this distance and won his only start at the track, so with Bowman taking over, he looks an each way chance. (7) Savatiano drops back in trip after struggling to run out the mile last start. She can bounce back. Happy to have something on Brave Song, Tactical Advantage and even Le Romain.
Value: (5) Tactical Advantage $10
Another open race. I'm pretty keen on (2) Bobbing here. He came from last to run 3rd in The Kosciuszko first up. He's got two wins and a 2nd from three starts when second up from a spell, and has the same record at this distance. If anything, I'd prefer him on a wet track, but he looks very well placed here and should give this a big shake. (5) Gresham can be an improver. He ran 4th behind Greyworm first up and tends to improve quite a bit second up from a spell. He draws well but has finished in the money in all four starts when second up. He can go forward from the wide gate and be in this for quite a while at $34. (9) Star Reflection isn't hopeless at big odds third up from a spell.
Value: (5) Gresham $34 & (9) Star Reflection $26
I was on (3) Mushaireb at big odds first up and I'll stick with him today after he ran terrific to be beaten 0.5L into 2nd. He goes up in weight but drops slightly in class and has had seven weeks in between runs so should be nice and fresh. He's won second up previously and can go well again here. (4) Mr Reckless was well backed at big odds last start and only went down by a nose to stablemate Asterius. It was a big run and 3kg apprentice Brock Ryan keeps the ride on him. Despite carrying more weight here, he can go well again at double figure odds. (9) Tunero was also very good first up. Bowman jumps aboard today from the soft draw and he can run well, though might be better off on a wet track.
Value: (4) Mr Reckless $13
Two main chances I'm interested in to close out the card. (1) Testifier was luckless first up at Randwick, when he started the $6 favourite and never saw daylight. He went to the line under a hold. Prior to that he was undefeated so it's worth giving him another chance today from a soft draw. 3kg apprentice Brock Ryan goes on to offset the weight and if he gets clear running he should go close. (15) Plenty is a bit of a non-winner but he's been trialling very well leading into his first up run today. Notably, James McDonald takes the ride on him, so I'd suggest he's ready to go. He's only won one race from 15 starts though. (17) Burning Crown next best.
