Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, November 16th.
The track is a Good 3 with the rail out 3m and the first race is due to get underway at 6.30pm AEDT.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race on the card below!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 Sweet Snitty
Best Value Bet: Race 8 Jesta Dreamer / Critical Thinking
RACE 1
Mellors comes up the short-priced favourite once again tonight. He’s run 2nd in all four starts in Australia, going down at $4.20, $1.60, $4.80 and $2.15. Once again, he finds a very winnable race and the blinkers go on for the first time tonight. The rail out 3m will help him given he looks the likely leader in the race but you couldn’t tempt me to back him with someone else’s money at $1.85. Beetobe is the least exposed runner in the race and comes into this on the back of consecutive placings at Stawell and Echuca to begin her career. Back on firm ground tonight will probably help but the query has to be her position in running; she’s likely to be near the back of the field from barrier 7. I’d rather back her at $4.40 than the favourite at $1.85 though. Maclairey has placed in four of six starts this campaign and went down by a nose over 1850m at Kyneton last start. Can be competitive again, while Yumaskah looks well over the odds at $34 after three completely luckless runs to begin his career.
RACE 2
Looks a race between Sweet Snitty and Blinder here. Interestingly, both ran on the same day at Sale on the 28th October. Sweet Snitty ran 2nd while Blinder won his maiden. If you compare the times, you’ll see that Sweet Snitty ran significantly quicker final sectionals than Blinder did, which is probably expected given Sweet Snitty was running in a BM70 race. In fact, Sweet Snitty’s final 600m (33.04) was the fastest of the entire meeting and so was her final 200m split (11.10) In comparison, Blinder ran 34.62 for his final 600m and 11.94 for his final 200m. Sweet Snitty has since gone to Cranbourne and was heavily backed but found one better once again in BM78 grade. Drops in grade tonight back to BM64 company and should take plenty of beating. The value could be High Hopper, who ran well first up and has won two from three when second up from a spell.
Value: High Hopper $15 UBET
RACE 3
Looks to be a fair bit of speed on up front here. I think the best horse in the race is Freeze Over but there’s every chance she’s planted wide without cover on the speed. She’s won two races from 11 starts and both of those came first up from a spell, including last prep when she led all the way at this track and distance. She’s obviously going to be very hard to beat. I’m interested in La Maestra though, who has looked terrific in winning both starts this campaign. She will kick up from barrier 3 here and hold out Freeze Over. While her overall time and her final sectionals haven’t been great at all in her two victories, she’s basically won the race between the 600-200m, basically running her rivals into the ground. Another one that will probably look to go forward is Gambler’s Girl who comes across from South Australia after winning first up at Naracoorte. That was her first win in four starts when first up from a spell and she’s had three starts when second up for two wins and a 2nd placing. She bolted in by 3.5L second up last prep and she looks a good price at $14 here. Monkey Magic will be the one sitting off the pace and if they overdo it up front, she’s definitely capable of reeling them in.
Value: Gambler's Girl $14 Ladbrokes
RACE 4
Eshtiraak looks very much the one to beat here. He’s been very good in his three starts back from a spell this time in and the form behind the likes of Ringerdingding looks very strong. He has a little bit of a task ahead of him tonight with barrier 11 but that’s the only query. Bad Wolf has won two of his past three, with the failure in between those able to be forgiven due to a respiratory issue during the race. His victory three starts back was over this track and distance. I’ll be saving on him at the $5 quote. Respecting Benny Goes Bezerk and Cullingworth from the Weir stable.
RACE 5
Hate these 955m races but I’ve been waiting a few weeks now for Tbilisi to return to the races after impressing at the Flemington jumpouts. He’s shown some tactical speed in a number of good hit-outs and looks ready to run a big race first up. I’m not entirely convinced that a 955m dash at the Valley is the ideal race but I have to have something on given I’ve been waiting for him to reappear. $5.50/$2.20 is a backable price each way.
RACE 6
I’m going to stick with Ascot Red here who continued his good form with a 2nd placing behind Ocean Walzer over 2500m at this track last start. He’s rock-hard fit and at the moment it doesn’t matter whether it’s flat racing or jumps racing; he just continues to perform. He’ll be in the finish again tonight. The Weir pair Truly High and Penthouse Playboy are both knocking on the door. Truly High finished 3rd to Ocean Walzer and Ascot Red last time out and finished the race off well, but he’s now run five consecutive placings and has won just two of his 17 career starts. Penthouse Playboy comes off a 2nd placing over 2580m at Cranbourne last Friday night so he’s on the quick back-up. The query with him is the firm track – he’s yet to win on Good ground from six starts, with his record on wet ground much better. High Mode ran 5th in the race behind Ocean Walzer and he’s probably the one with the most improvement left in him given he’s third up tonight. He won over 3800m at Wagga last prep so the trip is no problem for him. Weave is undefeated from two starts at this track and distance so could be a value chance but tonight’s circumstances are much different to the ones in which he won under.
RACE 7
Calibration has turned it up a bit while he’s been in Australia, with four placings from five starts and defeats at $3.00, $2.90, $2.35, $7.00 and $3.10. He certainly gets his chance tonight, stepping up to 2000m for the first time since breaking his maiden with a 7L win at Leicester in the UK. Royal Order gets a very interesting jockey booking with Damian Lane taking the ride and he can go on with his last-start win at Geelong. The form out of his first up run behind Ringerdingding and Eshtiraak has proved very strong and he can go very close again here. Ruomoza ran 2nd to Royal Order last start and should be competitive once again with a 2.5kg weight swing.
RACE 8
Going to play a couple at big odds to finish the night here. It’s a very competitive race and you could make a case for most horses. Jesta Dreama was fairly unlucky not to win first up behind Smart Coupe at Kyneton. He was hit on the nose with a whip at the 150m mark and then held up until the 100m before driving through late to run 2nd. Drawn well here and will just need luck coming from off the speed. Critical Thinking will be sent out as one of the rank outsiders around $31. He was backed from $10 into $7.50 first up but was gassed after leading and was beaten a long way. Gets blinkers back on tonight and a tongue tie for the first time too. He can probably lead from barrier 1 and he might just be worth having something on at the big odds. I’m pretty happy to take on I Did It Again tonight despite the blinkers going on for the first time. Satori looks hard to beat with Linda Meech taking the ride, while Royal Phoenix was impressive winning over this track and distance last time out and has claims once again.
Value: Critical Thinking $31 BetEasy
