Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, December 14th.
We’ve got eight races on a Soft 5 track after quite significant rain in Melbourne, but the Valley typically holds up pretty well. The rail is out 6m.
Check out our betting tips for every race on the card below!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 1 Plenty
Best Value Bet: Race 6 Inayforhay
RACE 1
Once again following my money on Plenty, who should have won first up but bombed the start by 5L, and then ran well for 2nd at this track and distance once again last start. That was behind a very well-backed runner who led all the way and I don’t think there looks to be anything in this field that should trouble him that much. The query is barrier 8, but he went forward last start so hopefully he does so again with the rail out 8m. Bam Sham is the intriguing runner, on debut for Danny O’Brien and Damien Oliver. I couldn’t find any jump outs for him at Flemington so he appears to be coming into this untrialled.
RACE 2
Competitive little race despite the small field and it could be very easy to pull the wrong rein here. I’m going to give Bold Arial another chance. She bolted in at Bairnsdale two starts ago, winning by 4.5L, and then bombed the start here at the Valley last time out. Forgive her for that because if she jumps clean tonight, she’s right in this. Ben Melham takes over and she draws well in barrier 2. Valse looks the value as one of the rank outsiders. She’s been very good in her two runs this preparation. She motored home first up in a very strong form race behind Lady Vega and My Pendant, before winning second up at Terang, where she ran the 4th fastest final 200m of the meeting. She will probably be last in the small field and that’s not an ideal place to be but at $13 I’ll be having something on. Subican and Pickup The Pieces both come off last-start wins. Subican could try and push forward from the inside gate, while Pickup The Pieces could also look to go forward from gate 6. Both can win this.
RACE 3
On form, you’d have to say Bad Wolf should have these covered. He won a BM78 two starts ago before running 2nd to Eshtiraak last start in this grade. But he draws sticky here in barrier 8 and has a 3kg apprentice on board, and there’s often chances to make money going against Lloyd Kennewell runners that are short in the market in Melbourne metro races. I’m going to take a chance and side with Double You Tee who gets Ben Melham booked for the astute Patrick Payne stable. He comes off a BM64 win at Kilmore but he gets conditions to suit. His record on Soft ground is terrific, with four top-two finishes from five starts and he’s also never finished outside the top two at this distance. Trigger Point could be the value at near double figure odds. He goes much better on Soft ground than he does on firm and he’s back up to 1600m tonight after dropping back to 1300m at Sandown last start. He’s got conditions to suit.
Value: Trigger Point $9.50
RACE 4
Not a race I’ll be investing heavily in. The only horse I’m really interested in backing is Honey Esprit, who charged home first up over 1000m and ran the second-fastest final 200m of the race. The winner ran the fastest 200m of the entire meeting so it looks a fairly reliable reference. Second up, up to 1200m and Damien Oliver on board. Her record on Soft ground is very good so she will appreciate the cut out of the ground and provided Oliver can give her a good ride from the wide gate, she should be hitting the line hard.
RACE 5
Again, another race that I won’t be getting too involved in. Happy to stick with Tbilisi who won at good odds for us first up over this track and distance. He did it in great style and that followed a number of very good jump outs at Flemington. The query is whether he is just as fresh and as sharp as he was or whether he is looking for a bit further now, but I can’t jump off him after that win. Drawn nicely again, will need some luck and another good ride by Dylan Dunn but he looks a very progressive horse this preparation.
RACE 6
Pretty low race but I’m keen on one each way here and that’s the Paul Preusker-trained Inayforhay. You might remember this horse ran 3rd to ‘The People’s Horse’ Mr Quickie at Murtoa back in October, where he ran the fastest final sectionals of the race. He followed that with a win at Horsham, before failing in Adelaide. He bounced back with a good run last start, which was his first go at 2000m and I think with that run under his belt, he can give this a good crack tonight. Preusker has had six runners at Moonee Valley this season, for two wins and two placings. Drawn well and at $10 I think he’s a decent each way bet. Get The Picture and High Sierra both get blinkers on tonight for the first time. High Sierra comes into this third up (she’s won her only previous third up run) and also has a win over this track and distance to her name. They could both go well at big odds. A few other chances in a deep race!
RACE 7
Another tough race. Freehearted ran well dropping back in grade last start and is one of only two Darren Weir runners on the card tonight. I doubt they’d be sending them here this late in the night if they weren’t legitimate winning chances. She’s drawn well in barrier 3 for Ethan Brown and will take plenty of beating. Hussy’s Glow would be a horse I’d be keen on if it was drawn a bit better and had a better jockey booked. She’s got a good first up record and a great record at the distance. Easy Beast has been gelded, while D Oliver takes the ride on This Kid Rocks who has been running well in Adelaide.
RACE 8
Four Sisters should be ready to run a good race second up from a spell tonight. She’s won two of her three races when second up and her record on Soft ground is very good. The query is the wide barrier, which will see her having to come from well back in the field. Vitani draws well and should get a good run with Craig Williams back in the saddle tonight. She could either lead or take a sit behind the likes of French Girl who will be looking to come across from her sticky draw. If she could find the front she’d be tough to run down but it’s whether she can get across which is the issue. Our Chiquilla not hopeless in a competitive final leg to the quaddie.
Value: Four Sisters $7.00
