Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley, Canterbury and Belmont on Wednesday, June 27th.
All three tracks are rated a Soft 6 and we’ve selected the best betting races from each card.
Best Bet: Belmont Race 7 #8 Cape Lady
Best Value Bet: Moonee Valley Race 8 #4 Nordic Empire
The run of (7) Belwazi last start was terrific and showed that she’s back after a disappointing first up effort. She draws nicely in barrier 5 today and should be able to camp just off the speed, but she also has the ability to land further forward if required. Gets in with just 53.5kg here and appears hard to beat off her latest effort. Currently a $3 chance but the way the market has shaped throughout the day, we’re likely to get a better price at jump time.
TIP: (7) Belwazi
Really liked the run and win of (4) Nordic Empire at Sandown last start, where he beat the favourite for this race, (1) Demolition by 1.5L. Demolition only gets a very minimal weight swing today and that may not be enough to turn the tables? Nordic Empire’s first up run at Cranbourne was also full of merit behind a smart winner who has since franked the form (You’ve Been Had). The obvious concern is that he’s had three starts at the track and distance for zero placings, but he looks to have come back in better form this prep and gets every chance from barrier 5. Happy to be taking $6 here.
TIP: (4) Nordic Empire EW
On what looks a tricky card at Canterbury today, I thought (5) Wander appeared one of the better chances. He’s had four starts for two wins and two placings and although most of those have been at the provincials, he ran well enough on his metrpolitan debut last start to suggest he could win this. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 11 but there’s a lt of deadwood in this race so if Avdulla can get him a cart into the race he should be there at the finish.
TIP: (5) Wander
Two-year-old race with a number of horses on debut here but (1) Apparition gets his chance to break his maiden tag today. He’s been knocking on the door in recent starts with consecutive minor placings, it’s just whether the drop back from 1400m to 1300m is going to be detrimental. Either way, he certainly gets his chance from barrier 5 and race experience often helps in juvenile races over here. He ran well on the soft ground at this track last start so should be hitting the lin strongly at $4.60.
TIP: (1) Apparition
Looks a nice race for (5) Flash Of Thunder who should be much better off for the run first up, where he led and faded into third. He’d only had the one trial leading into that and Pike takes over from Kirby today, suggesting the horse is probably fit enough to win now. Drawn wide but I suspect they will roll forward just as they did first up. The value might be (4) Captain Stirling who ran in a much harder race last start and now drops back to Wednesday grade. The horse that won the race last start then went onto run 2nd in the Belmont Guineas. If you go back to his efforts in similar company two and three starts ago, you’d suggest he is a chance at good odds here if he can reproduce similar. Worth something on at $9.
TIP: (5) Flash Of Thunder / (4) Captain Stirling EW
Interested in (6) Rising Sea at the $7 mark here. He’s followed a very similar path to the one he took last preparation – he had one trial before finishing just over a length off the winner first up. He then won second up, and he gets his chance from barrier 1 today. The concern is his record at the track and his previous failures on soft ground, but he’s already been $10 into $7 and when the money goes on with this stable, it’s rarely far off the mark. (7) Comparitive not hopeless after his last-start win over track and distance.
TIP: (6) Rising Sea EW
(8) Cape Lady looks very hard to beat here. She is second up off a very long spell and was only beaten 1.5L at her first run back, and that was without any public trials. Pike goes on, draws well in barrier 3, should strip much fitter and doesn’t look to have a great deal to beat here.
TIP: (8) Cape Lady
I thought the run of (5) Threesun was enormous last start, fighting on to finish 2nd despite sitting three-wide without cover the entire trip. That followed anther good performance when finishing 2nd to Vital Silver two starts ago. Both of those were on soft ground and both were at this track and distance. Drawn very awkwardly again today but if he can somehow manage to find a bit of cover, he should be right in the finish again.
TIP: (5) Threesun EW
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