The 2016 Nextra Moe Cup looks like an intriguing race. Who will prevail in the Heavy (8) conditions over the 2050 m.
The Nextra Moe Cup 2050m
Thursday sees the running of the Moe Cup which has been bolstered due to the abandoned Cranbourne Cup meeting last weekend.
In total 13 runners will line up over the 2050m and the track is currently rated a Heavy 8. The rail is in the True position and the forecast is for fine weather so we may see a slight upgrade throughout the day.
Given the wet ground I'd suggest it won't be much of a disadvantage to be drawn wide, and Authoritarian should still run the race at a decent clip despite The Cleaner not running.
I think there's five horses worth mentioning here.
The first is obviously the favourite RAW IMPULSE who was on the third line of betting last start in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, where he finished well back in the field behind impressive winner Hartnell. There is a possibility the track was too firm for him that day, and based on his dominant win in Adelaide on a Soft track two starts ago, he should appreciate the softer ground today. I think if he produces his best he wins this, but he needs a good ride and it will take a bit to trust him based on his mixed form.
If he doesn't turn up then it could be HI WORLD who wins, but he hasn't done so in 18 months. The key to his chances is the wet track, as he clearly saves his best for Soft or Heavy ground. The step up to 2000m also helps his chances. Two starts back he finished 3rd behind Bon Aurum and Ulmann; Bon Aurum has since won a Group 1 while Ulmann went on to win again last start. That's strong form and on a wet track he is a big chance.
The other big chance is Weir's second stringer MASTER ZEPHYR, who ran second in the Murtoa Cup last start behind Pemberley, which is form that has stood up too. Pemberley has since run 3rd to Assign in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes, and will line up in the Caulfield Cup this weekend. He is fit, handles the distance, should handle the ground, and importantly drops 5.5kg from his runner up finish last start. Draws perfectly in barrier 6 and Damian Lane is a strong booking so it would be no surprise to see him win this.
SLY ROMANCE may be the best value in the race at $18. It's hard to believe he won a 4000m race at the end of last prep because his two runs over short distances to start this prep have both been enormous. First up over 1400m he charged home to finish 0.3L off the winner before doing the same to win over 1600m last start. He will obviously relish the step up to 2050m and has won his only start on Soft ground. He is definitely one to include.
The only other one worth mentioning is THE BANDIT, who caught the eye first up at Moonee Valley over 1500m, before failing terribly last start over 2400m at Caulfield. Back to 2050m, and on ground which he has won on previously, he may be the sharp improver at $14 and is also worth including in exotics.
Simply, if Raw Impulse brings his A game I think he wins, but at $2.70 you have to take him on your own trust. Hi World looks the better bet at $7 on an each way basis if you are after more value, while Sly Romance looks a juicy price at $18.
1st RAW IMPULSE
2nd HI WORLD
3rd SLY ROMANCE
4th MASTER ZEPHYR
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
