Two teams that had top 4 aspirations before the season started are currently struggling through 8 rounds, and this matchup between the Knights and Warriors is absolutely crucial for both teams moving forward. Currently 13th (Warriors) and 14th (Knights) on the ladder, the losing team here will see themselves falling behind the current top 8. A huge clash awaits.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors
McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 5th May, 2:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Knights bounced back well last week, after the news of a long-term injury to their captain and superstar fullback Kalyn Ponga. The Knights had to travel to Suncorp Stadium and take on the Dolphins, where they proceeded to be the far better team for 77 minutes, leading 18-6. Two late tries to the Dolphins flattered to deceive, and the Knights should be proud of their effort last weekend, winning as 6.5-point underdogs. Rookie David Armstrong impressed, deputising for Ponga at the back with a try, two line-breaks, 11 tackle breaks and 189 metres. The Knights capitalised on the 15 errors made by Wayne Bennett’s men and will need to do the same this weekend.
The Warriors continued their puzzling lack of form, going down to the previously winless Titans at home, 27-24. That brought up a second straight loss and means the Warriors haven’t won a game of football for a month. Statistically, the Warriors don’t look bad, as they are getting contributions across the park, however they just don’t seem to be getting the results. Addin Fonua-Blake continued his impressive start to the season, scoring tries number three and four on the year, whilst running for over 200 metres.
Match Preview
These teams have already met once this season in Auckland, with the Warriors eking out a 20-12 win in round 4. The matchup was extremely close statistically, with the Warriors taking better advantage of their chances to get the win. The Warriors closed as 9.5-point favourites at home, with the Knights covering after a late converted try to Bradman Best. The total closed 41.5 and was never really in danger of being reached. For reference, we bet Warriors (1-12) in a solid handicap of the round 4 clash.
In the matchup between these teams at McDonald Jones Stadium last season, the game closed a pick em’, with the Knights getting home 34-24 in a highly entertaining affair.
This game opened with the Warriors short 2.5-point road favourites, and that number has been pushed out to 4.5. Whilst 2.5 would have been solid value, the number no longer exists, and so we need to find value elsewhere. We could once again look towards a Warriors win by 1-12, but they just aren’t convincing me right now the Warriors.
The total opened at 40.5 where it currently still stands. I do see value in the under here, however last time I bet the under in a Knights game in horrible conditions, there were 30 points scored in the first half… I make a fair total 36.5, so with this much value I must take the under. I also don’t mind both teams’ totals to go under, but the full game total is the play here.
Under 40.5 points
$1.85 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
D Watene-Zelezniak (1+ try) – DWZ continues to be one of the best finishers in the game, and with the Knights edges both looking susceptible to tries, expect the flying perm to go in here.
Knights (+13.5) – As above, I don’t like how the Warriors have been playing to start the season, and with a raucous home crowd behind them, expect the Knights to keep this tight.
Knights (team total) under 17.5) – No Ponga, rough conditions, expect the Knights to struggle putting more than 3 tries on the board here.
SGM Odds: $12.86 at Neds
