NRL action begins on Friday night this week, heading to Newcastle as the Knights play host to the Tigers. Not a match which will gather the most excitement from NRL fans, but it is key for both sides moving forward. The Knights are currently 3-points outside the Top 8 and need to keep winning to keep their Finals hopes alive. The Tigers are in last place on the ladder and, with the dreaded wooden spoon a reality, need a positive performance to carry momentum into 2024.
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NRL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Wests Tigers
McDonald Jones Stadium, Friday 14th July, 8pm (AEST)
The Knights delivered a commanding 66-nil victory over the Bulldogs in Round 18, which could’ve easily been more. Playing above the level of their opponents, they were clinical in their execution and rarely gave the Bulldogs an opportunity to halt their momentum or score points of their own. They dominated possession (60%), had a high completion rate (82%) and, unsurprisingly, gained more metres, post-contact metres and had 13 total line breaks. They were also good in defence, allowing just 1 line break and only missing 12 tackles. While the skill level of the opposition was poor, they still performed well.
After suffering a 74-nil loss to the Cowboys in the same round, the Tigers were defeated 36-12 by the Sharks last week. Things are going poorly for this club as they are currently rooted to the bottom of the competition ladder and the NRL Power Rankings. It was a better effort last week but still one which failed to push their opponents; it appeared as though the Sharks didn’t get out of second gear. They trailed in every area statistically with their biggest concern being that they allowed over 10m per carry and missed 35 tackles. They need better performances from this squad if the club is going to push towards a positive rebuild into 2024 and beyond.
The Knights head into this game as strong favourites ($1.29 vs $3.60) with the price reflecting the recent form of both sides. The Tigers receive a boost with Koroisau returning from injury at hooker, but a lot more will be needed of others in this team if they are to change the narrative of this game. The Knights won a close match between these two sides back in Round 2, extending their winning streak to 3 matches against the Tigers. Each side is remarkably different compared to now; the Knights have improved while the Tigers have declined. You only must look as far as the season averages for evidence of this. The Knights score 23ppg compared with the Tigers 15ppg and concede 21ppg while the Tigers allow 26ppg. Stopping their opponents from scoring regular points will be their biggest issue; the Knights are a team with confidence following their most recent performance and will want to produce a positive display in front of their home fans. The home ground advantage does count for something when playing in Newcastle and despite the Tigers winning 4 out of their past 6 games here, they still only have a 47% strike rate (Knights 54%).
With all signs pointing towards a victory for the home team, and with the Knights scoring 24+ points in 4 of their 7 home games this year, they appear capable of covering the line (10.5) and recording a comfortable victory.
Knights -10.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
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Knights 13+ – The Knights have shown a lot of positive attacking ability recently and with the Tigers poor defensive record, they should win comfortably
Over 44.5 Points – If the Knights pile on the score like we think they should, the total points will take care of itself.
Best & Young 1+ Try Each – Best had a brilliant 2-try debut in Origin on Wednesday and Young missed out in their previous match, but still leads the competition with 16 tries for the season.
