A big home game for the Knights on Saturday afternoon, as they take on the Storm in what is close to a must-win clash for the Novocastrians. The Knights need at least 4 wins from their last 7 games to have any chance, and a home game here is one that could very well decide their chances of making it. They take on a Storm side that still has a great chance at the Minor Premiership, and they will need to win these sorts of matches if they’re going to take their first Minor Premiership since 2021.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm
McDonald Jones Stadium, Saturday 22nd July, 5:30pm (AEST)
The Knights are coming off a 34-18 victory at home over the Tigers last week, however it wasn’t until an hour into the contest before the Knights looked the dominant team. After 56 minutes, the Knights led 22-18, with the contest going back and forth for the best part of an hour, before the Knights finally figured it out in the final 25 minutes. The Knights were dominant statistically, so it has to be slightly concerning that the Tigers got that close to the Knights at home.
As for the Storm, they took on the Roosters at the SCG, and were dominant in the second half. It was tight at half-time, with the Storm ahead 6-4, however 4 unanswered tries to start the second half saw the Storm romp home, and almost assuredly consigned the Roosters to missing the finals.
The Storm opened 8.5-point favourites, and at the time of writing are edging up towards a 10.5-point favourite in this contest. This is basically the same number I have given my power ratings, with both of these teams being steadily rated for over half of the season. So, I don’t see a tonne of value in the line here numbers wise, however I do have a suspicion the Storm will be too strong here, and it’s just a matter of whether they can get the 10+ point win. Given the magnitude of the game for the Knights, I think I’ll avoid the side in this one.
So, we move to the total, which opened 44.5 and has been bet up slightly to 45.5. The Storm have been a solid unders bet on this season, with 11 of their 17 matches (65%) going under the total. Whilst the Knights aren’t as partial to unders (8 of 17 games under - 47%), I trust the Storm will want to turn up their defence on the run into the finals.
I’d love it if this bumped up to 46.5, however at this point we will just have to take the 45.5. My fair is 43.5, so there is still value in the under here.
Under 45.5 total points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Storm (-5.5) – I am still contemplating playing Storm (-9.5), and am confident they will have too much for the Knights. Taking a try off the spread and banking on the Storm winning by a converted try seems a safer proposition.
Under 53.5 points – With a best bet of under 45.5, this is simply to bump up the total return.
Xavier Coates (1+ try) – The Knights right edge defence has been poor this season, conceding 27 tries (43%) this season. With 5 tries in his past 3 games, Coates is hitting his straps post Origin.
Greg Marzhew (1+ try) – Marzhew is having a great first season at the Knights, and with Kalyn Ponga orchestrating the left edge in attack, Marzhew should have chances at another try here.
SGM Odds: $11 at Picklebet
