We kick off a massive Super Saturday, with the Newcastle Knights hosting the Sydney Roosters at McDonald Jones Stadium. The Knights have been slowly accumulating points throughout the season, to currently sit just 2 points outside the top 8. A win here against a Roosters team struggling for confidence, would be a massive boost for the Knights’ chances of making the top 8.
As always, stay tuned to BeforeYouBet, as the lads will have previews and best bets for every NRL match this season.
NRL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters
McDonald Jones Stadium, Friday 17th June, 3:00pm (AEST)
The Knights were desperately unlucky to lose to the Broncos last week, falling 24-20 at Suncorp Stadium. The Knights led 20-12 with just over 10 minutes to play and looked the better side for much of the contest. However, the level of the Broncos was too much in the final 10 minutes, as they ran in 2 converted tries to take the win. Plenty of positives for the Knights, who were coming off a win over the Sea Eagles and the bye, prior to the narrow loss last week.
The Roosters were manhandled in the second half by a Nathan Cleary-less Panthers, and the alarm bells are surely ringing in Bondi. After a tough opening 40 minutes where the Roosters were probably a little unlucky to trail 8-0, the Panthers came out and beat the Roosters to a pulp in the second half, running out convincing 30-6 winners.
It’s another Origin affected round in the NRL this week, and as always, we will tread lightly when it comes to betting into these markets. We’ve noticed several blowout games over the past month, and odd results will likely continue until Origin is in the rear-view mirror. With that said, there’s some value to be found in this game, and we will dig into what that is.
The market hasn’t moved since open on this game, with the Knights sitting 4.5-point favourites at home, and the total sitting at 45.5. Now on football played during the 2023 season, and the fact the Roosters are missing James Tedesco and Lindsay Collins to Origin, I can get to the Knights being a 4.5-point favourite, if not more. However, when factoring in my priors for the Roosters, it’s hard to not see value on the chooks here. Despite this, I have no confidence in the way the Roosters are playing right now, particularly in attack.
As mentioned, the Roosters will be without Tedesco and Collins, whilst the Knights are missing Tyson Frizell to Origin. The Knights have also dropped Greg Marzhew for disciplinary reasons, with Enari Tuala named on the wing. The Roosters have named rookie half Sandon Smith to start at halfback, however I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a few changes to the Roosters starting 13 prior to kick-off.
The total looks a smidge high here in my opinion. These two teams are bottom half in attack, with the Roosters scoring the least number of points per game of any team in the NRL. If the Knights can shut down Joey Manu at the back, I believe they can hold the Roosters to under 20 points, giving them a great opportunity at a victory. The Roosters will be desperate for the two points here, and their game over the past decade has been built on defence. With Tedesco out and a new halfback to slot into their spine, they will look to win this game with defence, and therefore I’ll take the under here.
Under 45.5 total points
$1.91 (1 Unit)
NRL Same Game Multi at Picklebet
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out! For this match we’ve opted to go with a three-legger at big odds.
Joseph Manu 1+ Try – Joey Manu, as much as anyone at the Roosters, needs a big game this week. Since moving to five eighth, Manu has looked lost. Back at possibly his best position at fullback, I fully expect Manu to get several chances close to the line this weekend.
Newcastle Knights to Win – The Knights have been solid this season at home, with wins over the Raiders, Warriors, Titans, Sea Eagles, and a narrow loss to the Panthers. I expect another bumper crowd at McDonald Jones Stadium, in a game the team and fans will believe they can win.
Roosters (Team Total) Under 20.5 – The Roosters average the least amount of points per game this season (16.15), and with 3 regular members of their spine missing, points should once again be at a premium. My model suggests a fair score for the Roosters as 16.5, so I’ll take the under 20.5 here.
SGM Odds: $7 at Picklebet
