After three straight weeks of some of the biggest rivalries in the NRL highlighting Friday night football, this week we get two teams struggling for consistency to start the year, as the Dragons head to Newcastle to take on the Knights. With both teams outside the top 8, there is plenty on the line in this Round 5 clash, and both teams will be desperate for the win.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons
McDonald Jones Stadium, Friday 5th April, 8:00pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Knights are coming off their 3rd loss of the season, and currently sit in 15th place on the ladder with a 1-3 record. Last week, they crossed the ditch and took on the Warriors at Go Media Stadium on Sunday evening, and despite the matchup looking tight statistically, the Warriors were in control for the most part, leading 20-6 with just six minutes remaining. Kalyn Ponga looked back to his best, running for 169 metres, breaking 7 tackles, whilst creating two line breaks, two line-break assists, and a try assist. They were, however, dominated in the middle, and will need a much better performance this week from their forwards if they are to come out on top.
The Dragons maintained their Jekyll and Hyde start to the season, defeating the Sea Eagles on Saturday evening in Wollongong, 20-12. Both teams were horrible with the ball, with the Dragons (73%), and Sea Eagles (69%) completing at a poor rate, with both teams making 15 errors apiece. It felt a lot like this result was more down to the poor level from the Sea Eagles, rather than a good performance from the Dragons, and I am still pretty low on the Dragons right now. Ben Hunt was instrumental for the Dragons, setting up three of the four Dragons tries.
Match Preview
The Dragons and Knights met just once last season, in the final week of the year in round 27. The Knights hammered the Dragons 32-12 at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, and despite the Dragons fielding a near full strength squad, I’m not taking too much from this result. The Dragons had nothing to play for, and the Knights were in the midst of their tremendous run to end the season. For reference, the Knights closed just 1.5-point favourites for the game, which in hindsight was a crazy line.
The Knights opened massive 9.5-point favourites for this game prior to last weekend’s games, and after the Dragons got the win over the Sea Eagles, support has come for the road team, as the Knights now sit as just 6.5-point favourites. I’m a little concerned about how high I had the Knights rated on my priors; however, I believe the Knights are value in this spot. I make the spread far closer to the open of 9.5 and believe the Knights can get the job done comfortably at home this weekend.
The total opened 43.5, dropping dramatically to 38.5. The Knights have been a heavy under team to start the season, going under in all four matches to start the year. The Dragons have been in a similar boat, with just one over from four games. However, the main reason for this heavy drop in the total is the predicted weather, with heavy rain forecast for the Newcastle area starting on Thursday afternoon and continuing through Friday and Saturday. With these conditions, I expect the total to drop a little lower closer to kick-off, unless the weather turns around. However, with the information at hand, I see the under being the bet here for this game.
Under 38.5 Total Points
$1.91 (2 Units)
