The Knights continue their surge towards the finals, as they look to make it 6 wins in a row, when they host the Bulldogs at McDonald Jones Stadium. The Bulldogs are coming off the bye and would love nothing more than to hurt the Knights’ finals chances with a win, as they look to build some momentum heading into the offseason.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our NRL betting tips, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 24 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs
McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 11th August, 4:05pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Knights won a tough matchup last week against the Dolphins in Perth, winning 30-28 in a 5-try apiece matchup. The Knights were a little way off their best, however showed enough when it mattered to get the much needed 2 points over the Dolphins. They continued their dominance in attack, scoring 26+ points for the 5th straight game.
The Bulldogs are off the bye, with their last up 23-22 victory over the Dolphins showing they are still trying. As they are off the bye, the Bulldogs will have a huge rest advantage over the Knights, having a two-week break compared to the Knights, who have had to travel back from Perth.
Match Preview
We only have to go back a little over a month ago for this pair’s previous matchup, and it was an embarrassing loss for the Bulldogs, as they were hammered 66-0 at home by the Knights. The Bulldogs were missing some key personnel; however, nothing could account for the poor performance in this one. Having a quick look at the closing numbers in that particular game shows the Knights closing as 2.5-point favourites on the road, indicating the market had the Knights as a 4-4.5-point better team than the Bulldogs. The total closed 43.5, with the Knights easily covering that number themselves.
For this clash, the Knights opened 12.5-point favourites at home, however with the loss of Bradman Best, and perhaps the market believing the Knights are being overvalued, the Bulldogs have drawn money, with the Knights now just 9.5-point favourites. With the Knights’ home field advantage what it is, this indicates the Knights are valued as 7 points better than the Bulldogs, not a huge upgrade from their clash just 6 weeks ago.
I’m worried I’m missing something here, but I make the Knights a 16.5-point favourite and see huge value in them here. My biggest concern is the travel factor, however they have so much more to play for right now than the Bulldogs, that motivation shouldn’t be a factor in my opinion. I believe in front of their home fans on Sunday afternoon though, the Knights should be far too good for the Bulldogs.
As for the total, it opened 47.5 and remains 47.5. I make a fair 47.5, so I won’t be making a play on the total. I do like a Knights over though, and I see them getting to 30+ here.
Also Backing: Knights (team total over) 27.5 - $1.87 at NEDS (2u)
Knights 13+
$2.30 (3 Units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Knights (-5.5) – See above, Knights by margin.
Greg Marzhew (1+ try) – Marzhew had just the 1 try in the previous meeting, but the Knights destroyed the Bulldogs right side defence, and I see them attacking it once again on Sunday.
Lachlan Fitzgibbon (1+ try) – Fitzgibbon is one of the best hole runners in the competition and will be running off Kalyn Ponga all afternoon. A try in the last outing, and lines up on that punishing left edge of the Knights.
Viliame Kikau (1+ try) – The former Panther made his return from injury two weeks ago, scoring a try in the Bulldogs 23-22 win. After a week off to rest, I can only imagine the Bulldogs will be giving the huge Fijian plenty of chances in the redzone this weekend.
SGM Odds: $23 at Picklebet
