Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Kensington on Wednesday, June 3rd.
The Kensington track is currently rated a heavy 8, which may improve with clear weather forecast. The rail is out 1m.
Find our preview and betting tips courtesy of Tim Geers below!
Kensington Racing Tips: Wednesday, June 3rd
Best Bet: Race 6 - (12) Mantelli
Best Value: Race 5 - (6) Monasterio
I was originally keen on Oh Say but she's been scratched and saved for Warwick Farm on Monday. (2) Equation trialled well leading into hi debut. He won successive trials at Warwick Farm before kicking off at Randwick last month. He started $6.00 on that occasion behind Peltzer and Overlord, but was outclassed. That's turned out to be an exceptionally strong form line though, and back in grade a bit here should see him be very competitive. (3) Falcon and (4) Sharpshooter both placed behind Anders at Wyong. Anders also has form behind Peltzer and he came out last weekend and won in Saturday grade, so the form has stacked up there. (5) The Denzel was given a very quiet time of things in his latest trial, and Les Bridge has a good record here at Kensington. And then (1) Giftgiver ran 2nd to weet Reply on debut, who then ran 3rd in Saturday grade behind Anders, so the form can be tied in there. Draws barrier 1 and isn't hopeless. Tough race!
Another competitive race. I'm going to keep things pretty simple here and just back two of the Snowden runners. (1) Armatree and (7) Dance come out of the same race here at Kensington two weeks ago. Dance ran 2nd and Armatree ran 4th, but there was nothing splittling them across the line, and I can't split them here. Armatree went back from his wide draw and settled last, before looping the field and probably just peaking on his run late, while Dance drew midfield and got shuffled back in the straight before finding the line nicely. Dance draws barrier 1 here so should be able to land right up on speed, while Armatree draws 8 of 10 and probably goes back again, however is open to improvement, this being his second career start. At the $5.00 and $7.00 I'll just back both to win the same amount and hope one proves too good. (10) Wild Irish obviously brings strong form to the race having run 2nd to September Run last start.
Also backing: (7) Dance $7.00
Sticking with (6) Indigenous who was set to run in the bush last week but was scratched and saved for this instead. She returns from a spell today having impressed at the trials. She was narrowly touched off in her first trial back, by a horse called Lost And Running, who won by 4.5L on debut following that trial. Then in her second trial, Indigenous sped to the front of the small field and cruised away from the rest of the field, posting a 7L margin. There wasn't much behind her in terms of what she beat, but she should find the front here from barrier 1 and prove tough to get past. I expect we'll probably get a better price than the $2.10 currently on offer. (4) Pitchfork looks the value in the race at $11. He ran a good race first up at Kembla, going down by 0.6L after sitting three-wide the trip. He should improve off that run and John O'Shea has an outstanding record at Kensington, with a 30% strike rate. Will get a softer run from barrier 2 and looks a decent price. (5) More Prophets has the race-fitness edge over her other market rivals and she's knocking on the door with three minor placings from as many starts. (2) Rules Don't Apply trialled well and gets JMac straight on first up. Will be backing Indigenous closer to race time and having something on Pitchfork at the odds.
(9) Lost And Running looks quite clearly the horse to beat here. He trialled well leading into his Scone debut and he backed up the good trial with a dominant performance, posting a 4.5L victory despite sitting five-wide the trip. The 4th horse out of that race has already come out and won since, which is a good sign for the form. Bowman goes straight on today and I've already made mention of John O'Shea's 30% strike rate on the Kenso track. I don't see the ground being an issue. With even luck he looks the winner, and even without luck he probably still wins. (5) Accelerato gets JMac on first up and he gets conditions to suit. He's only won three races from 29 starts but all three have been on wet ground. He went very close first up last prep and looks at least a place chance. (10) Coco Cuber next best, returning as a gelding first up.
(9) Lost And Running
$1.80
This is the hardest race of the day. (7) Le Lude has returned in good order, with three good runs this campaign. She won first up at Kembla, then ran 3rd without much luck second up at Canterbury, before being beaten less than a length over 1400m here at Kensington last start. She's run well on heavy ground before, she has two 2nds from as many starts at the distance, and senior rider Rachel King takes over from apprentice Jean Van Overmeire today. $7.00 looks a decent price for her. I think (6) Monasterio might be ready to run a race. He's had three runs back from a spell now and he always needs a few to come good. He won over this track and distance on a heavy 9 last preparation and if he brings that sort of form, he'd be a chance at $17. Wouldn't shock me to see him ridden much more aggressive today. (5) Kateru has won two of his last three at Kembla and now comes to the city. Bowman goes on and he should find a forward position from the wide gate. He's only lightly-raced so has improvement to come.
Value: (6) Monasterio $17
There has been an avalanche of money for (12) Mantelli in early betting. He's now into $4.00 after opening $11, which means every man and their dog in the stable is probably on. JMac and Waller, first up and barrier 1 is scary enough, let alone when it's been that well supported. He had his first three runs in Queensland. He ran 2nd to Vanna Girl on debut at the Gold Coast - that form has stood up immensely with Vanna Girl going on to win another five races, including successive Listed races. Mantelli was then very well backed at his second start and duly saluted, before being defeated as the even money favourite last time we saw him. He was put out for a spell, has returned with two trials and looks very hard to beat fresh. (11) Showminder is a place chance at decent odds first up. He ran well first up last prep behind Juventus and went on to be competitive in races here, at Rosehill and at Randwick. (9) Big Bad Bruce continues to battle away and is a place chance again, while (8) Maggie Miss should appreciate some weight relief with Louise Day taking 3kg off.
Four main chances here for mine. (3) Hibiscus Lady ran very well first up when going down by a nose at Warwick Farm. She has to lump 61kg today but she won her only prior start on heavy ground and draws to get a good run from barrier 3. (9) Private Thoughts drifted terribly first up and ran accordingly, beaten nearly 8L into second last. She gets the blinkers on for the first time today and Rachel King takes the ride. She has a 26% strike rate for John O'Shea and John O'Shea has a 30% strike rate at the track, so I'd expect an improved run at double figure odds. O'Shea also said he expected a much better run than what she did first up. Betting will be interesting. (12) Miss Spiteful was huge first up. I was keen on her that day and she battled on really well after being caught three-wide without cover on speed throughout. She was only beaten 1.7L into 3rd. She had trialled well before that and from barrier 2 she should be able to find the rail. Willing to give her another chance today. I'll be taking $4.50 about Miss Spiteful and also having something on the $7.50 Private Thoughts.
Value: (9) Private Thoughts $7.50
