Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Wednesday, November 13th.
With Melbourne Cup week done and dusted, Wednesday's metropolitan racing heads to the provincials, with Bendigo and Hawkesbury hosting the respective Victorian and NSW city meetings. As we ramp up our coverage of Perth racing with the WA carnival approaching, we've also included our best bets at Bunbury, as well as Luke Krahe's selections from Tuesday's postponed Scone meeting.
Check them all out here!
Horse Racing Tips: Wednesday, November 13th
Best Bet: Bunbury Race 6 - (1) Ngawi
Next Best Bet: Bendigo Race 3 - (6) Jealice / (4) Dondeska
Best Value Bet: Bunbury Race 8 - (4) Awesome As
Bendigo Race 2 (Market)
I think (8) Nerone has had his chances to win so I'll be taking him on here as the even-money favourite. (6) Ladybuy is a bet here at $4.40. He ran 3rd on debut behind Beehunter and Banquo. Beehunter went on to run 3rd at Moonee Valley at his next start, while Banquo went on to win her next two starts, including one over Nerone. I think Ladybuy can improve here with race experience and the inside barrier. Trainer Mike Moroney has a good record with runners at Bendigo this season, striking at 29% with a 132% ROI. Another stable with a great record at Bendigo is Tony & Calvin McEvoy, who have a 44% winning SR and a 117% ROI. Their filly (9) Whykayoh returns from a spell here and she showed a bit of ability in her debut prep. She's had two Flemington jumpouts leading into today's race. She wasn't asked to do much in the first one but she was ridden out to the line in her second one and she finished off well enough. Drawn wide here, they'll go back and run on. She's also a chance at $4.00. I'm happy to back both runners here and take on the favourite. Slight leaning to Ladybuy with the inside gate.
Also backing: (9) Whykayoh $4.00
Bendigo Race 3 (Market)
Two I'll be backing here. (6) Jealice goes on top after a very good return at Benalla last start, where she clocked the fastest final 200m of the race, finishing 3rd, beaten 1.75L. Hoping she can sit closer from barrier 4 - she went back to last from the widest gate last start. The horse that won that race first up is decent and I'd expect the form to stack up. Archie Alexander is in form, with three winners and five placings from 14 runners this month. The biggest danger quite clearly looks to be the Danny O'Brien-trained (4) Dondeska, who ran 2nd at Seymour last start, where she clocked the second-fastest final 200m of the meeting. This is her third career start and she's up to 1400m now which looks ideal. O'Brien is obviously in terrific form at the minute. He's had six winners and seven placings from 19 runners at Bendigo this season, is striking at 20% for his last 100 runners and 40% for his last 10 runners. There's $4 apiece for both horses and I'll be backing both. There's been a good early go for the Austy Coffey trained (8) Numero Quatre, but the trainer hasn't had a winner since July so I'll let it go.
Also backing: (4) Dondeska $4.00
Bendigo Race 6 (Market)
(2) Living The Dream should prove tough to beat here. It's a good little race but he brings some pretty solid formlines to this race. First up he was beaten by Polanco, who then won again, he then won second up at Ballarat, before running 2nd to Sophia's Choice last time out. Sophia's Choice came out and ran 2nd at Flemington during Cup week following that race, so the form stacks up. Drawn well in barrier 4, trainer Mitch Freedman is flying and the horse just needs a repeat performance to go very close here. (3) Port Royal won easily last start as the odds on favourite at Seymour. That was after a good return first up from a long time off the track. Ollie isn't riding today so Ben Allen takes over and I'm certainly not underestimating the horse. (1) Aussie Nugget is next best.
(2) Living The Dream
$2.50
Hawkesbury Race 4 (Market)
They're only paying two places here but I still think the $7.00 for (3) Gone Bye is a decent each way bet. He's a three-year-old gelding on debut from the Mark Newnham stable with Robbie Dolan in the saddle. He's had three trials leading into this but there was a four months between his first and his second one. His two recent trials have both been satisfactory but he gets the blinkers on for the first time for raceday. I think this is a pretty thin race with a vulnerable favourite so he looks a bit of value at $7.00.
Hawkesbury Race 8 (Market)
(4) Balmaceda might be a good way to close out the card at $5.00. He was beaten less than half-a-length first up over 1500m here at Hawkesbury. He's run 2nd in both previous second up starts and is undefeated at this distance. He's drawn awkwardly in barrier 9 but they generally get their chance with the long Hawkesbury straight, so he is an each way bet in what looks a pretty poor field.
Bunbury Race 2 (Market)
Good little maiden this. The market has the Pike horse (1) Stella Door on top here but I think that's wrong and I'll be happy to oppose it. We might get it wrong but it's a game of opinions and I think it's a false favourite. On debut it ran 4th in a six-horse field in town. It then went for a spell, trialled like a bomb and resumed as the $1.30 favourite at Northam. It flew out of the barriers, led but pulled hard and tired late to be beaten 1.6L. It's back from 1100m to 1000m today, Pike sticks, it will roll forward from barrier 3, but it needs to settle better and I'm not convinced it should be favourite in a decent field. Lindsey Smith has (10) Sweetassa making its debut. He's showed very good speed in his two trial wins, both over 400m. The concern is it has only had those two very short trials leading into its debut and they were separated by three months. I think he'll be educated enough but it's a strange set up. Barrier 1 helps and I suspect they'll look to box seat. (5) London Miss is underrated here. She trialled well leading into her debut on Melbourne Cup day, where she ran 2nd to Cuballing, who I think is a promising horse. She was outkicked on the turn but ran home just 0.02sec slower than the winner in the final 200m, so she was strong through the line. Notably, they ran a significantly quicker time than the other 1000m maiden on the day, which was won by Red Warrior, who had very good formlines. I think the race London Miss comes out of will stack up. She might be able to lead today from barrier 2, the tongue tie goes on for the first time, and the $7.00 looks very appealing. (7) Blonde Warrior is over the odds at $15. She started a well-backed $3.70 chance in that same race as London Miss, and she actually beat London Miss in a trial leading into that. She somewhat surprisingly was ridden cold and ran home in the fastest final 200m of the race. Not hopeless at the odds, especially as there looks a bit of speed on here. I'd be backing London Miss each way if I had one bet in the race, but I think the way I'll go is to either dutch bet Sweetassa ($3.30), London Miss ($7.00) and Blonde Warrior ($15) or save on Sweetassa and back the other two. Taking on Pike's horse.
Value: (7) Blonde Warrior $15
Bunbury Race 6 (Market)
(1) Ngawi finds a very winnable race here after a fairly unlucky defeat first up in town. She was first up from a year off the track and was held up until the 200m mark before hitting the line hard to be beaten 0.2L. Drops from a Class 5 to a Class 3 today and 3kg apprentice Bonnie Palise takes the ride. She's had five rides at Bunbury in the past 12 months, for two winners and two placings. The mare's only career win came second up so she gets an ideal scenario to break through again. (2) Fa'lion Machine was sound first up in a Bm66+ in town and finds an easier race. Wasn't far off Massimo which is good form, but might just be better suited next start with one more run under the belt. I think $35 about (11) Reidy is over the odds. He ran 2nd first up at Geraldton befre failing last start, but he always runs poorly second up (five starts, no placings). He tends to bunce back third up though, with a win and a 3rd from three starts. He's got two wins from four starts at the distance, gets the tongue tie on for the first time and could be a blowout chance at the odds.
Bunbury Race 7 (Market)
(5) Do A Pataky looks a reasonable each way bet here at $6.50 in a race of several winning chances. She always needs her first up run (she's never placed from four attempts) but she improved significantly second up over this track and distance, running 2nd to Sublime Image. I think that's a good form reference as Sublime Image has won two on the bounce and is entered at Ascot on Saturday. Third up today, stays at the track and distance of her only two career placings and finds a race that should have some speed in it. Looks at least a place bet.
(5) Do A Pataky E/W
$6.50
Bunbury Race 8 (Market)
(3) Kia Ora Staris the $2.90 favourite here and I'm very happy about that because he's a complete money-muncher. He just finds ways to get beat, this horse. Barrier 1 and Chris Parnham back on both big positives for him but I'll be taking him on anyway. There's three in the race I'll be backing. (4) Awesome As looks the value at $12. He was well beaten first up but he always is, he's never placed from seven starts when fresh. But he finds his form quickly because he bounced back with a win last start. He's only ever missed a place once from seven starts when second up and he continues that form third up, with two wins and three placings from six starts. He's got a good record at the track and distance and even though he's drawn wide, he's a definite bet at the odds here. (5) Prince Turbo had his first start for the Jason Miller camp last start and he bolted in to win by 3L. That was on Melbourne Cup day, so he's on the relatively quick back-up here. The slight negatives are the sharp step up in trip from 1400m to 1700m and the wide barrier draw in 11, but he has to be included after his convincing win last start. (6) Swift Mirage finished midfield behind Awesome As at Ascot last start. He simply got too far back and was given too much to do, but he clocked the second-fastest final 400m and 200m of the race. Prior to that he ran 2nd behind Black Ducati here (good form) and before that he won at Belmont. Every run this prep has been terrific so if he can just be a bit closer on the turn today, he'll be a great chance. Backing those three to beat the favourite.
Value: (4) Awesome As $12
Luke Krahe's Scone selections from the postponed meeting on Tuesday, November 12th:
Scone Race 2 (Market)
Race 2 at Scone looks an open race on paper, the bottom two look the couple that I don’t expect to fight out the finish. I have priced up (2) Fearless Mia to be favourite in the race, so at the early quote around the 7/2 ($4.50) mark, she looks good value. She won her maiden two back when running on and then was only fair before going to the paddock. She has trialed at Wyong recently and looked good to the eye, she was beaten comfortably into second but never got out of second gear and was strong through the line. She has place at both previous fresh runs and the horse that beat her in the trial is an interesting one that has bolted in at both trials after having two years off. She has tactical speed and expect her to be up on the speed and very hard to catch. (2) Snicki Minaj has opened as the favourite but looks a great lay, she won her debut way back at career start number two, today lining up at start 14. She hit the line ok last time over 1000m from well back, I just can’t see her sitting outside our pick and running past her.
Scone Race 3 (Market)
There are a few unknowns here coming to the races for the first time, if there is no real confidence around those debutants in the betting, I am very confident (4) Mother’s Day can get the cash. She debuted here at the track a little over two weeks ago, she was forced to sit up on the speed and wide without cover, looked like she had a lot to learn and was all over the place in the straight. She stuck on well to be beaten a half a length, there was some serious money for her that day. The official flucs were $5.50 into $3.60 so the confidence was certainly there. There are no gear changes which is a little surprising, if she jumps well, she should be hard to run down, I expect that she will be closer to first than last when turning for home.
