Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Tuesday, February 11th.
The big storms over East have already caused the abanonement of a number of meetings in the last week. Luke Krahe has focused on Warrnambool and Lismore this afternoon, which hopefully goes ahead without any issues.
Find his best bets of the day below.
The betting will tell us that this is a two-horse war between (1) Achaeus and (6) Mill On Brook. I think the latter clearly has more upside having had only the three career starts. She was second-up at the 2000m at Ararat in mid-January, was well backed into favourite and after being held-up at a vital stage, ran through the line ok to suggest that she wanted further. She then stepped up to the 2200m at Geelong and again was well backed, sat behind the speed and stuck on well off a good tempo that suited those back in the field. These highweight races can turn into a bit of a slog but the small field suits, the other favoured runner will be the leader and I prefer to be on something coming from behind in a small field, especially around here with the rail out so far.
(10) Zupawink gets the right sort of race to make her debut, a very weak one on paper. She is a 4Yo mare making her debut so has obviously been given plenty of time, she has had one jump-out recently at Colac. She jumped ok, sat behind the two leaders before making a run when urged along at the top of the straight. She quickly ran to the front and was ridden out through the line to win comfortably, the last 50m was impressive. A video of the jump-out can be found here. (2) Barley Hunter will have support after placing here fresh at big odds after running on nicely, he draw wide and will be giving them a start but I did like the fact there was a big gap to third that day. I couldn’t be taking the $2.70 currently on offer but if he gets out somewhere near $4, have a saver on him.
Of the 8 runners, only three of them are previous winners in this Class 1 and maiden over 2100m. We are going away from my usual plan in these races which is never to back maidens, but he wet track has me swaying towards (6) Our Red Jet being able to break the duck at start 27! His form has only been fair to say the least but a couple of things look in his favour here. Firstly, he is out in trip from the mile last start. Two back he was at the 1880m at Toowoomba and was well backed from double figures in to finish third. He has placed 2/3 on a heavy track and it has been a long time since he has seen one. He actually showed some ability early in his career, was beaten narrowly as a $1.55 favourite here at Lismore on a heavy track going back almost two years. His latest heavy track run was back in April last year, he was beaten nearly 4 lengths in a tough maiden at Ipswich after being on the rail when out wide was the place to be. On a tough race where there doesn’t appear any stars, this may just be his day!
(2) Super Freak is a consistent type that should be rock hard fit here third-up. She has a great record on heavy tracks (4:2-1-0) and the only time she has missed a place was second-up last start in a harder race, she doesn’t have a good record racing that pattern. She was three-wide no cover throughout, loomed up ominously four-wide into the straight but just died on her run a little late (blame it on being second-up). She is having her first go here, she can get back in her races but hopefully the conditions will see them ride her positively and she can sit wide and win.
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