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2024 AFL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Fremantle
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, 13th July, UTAS Stadium
Fremantle held onto third place with a comfortable 51 point victory over Richmond in Round 17. It was the Dockers third win in a row and their fourth from their last five games and gives Fremantle an opportunity to solidify their spot in the top four in the coming weeks.
Hawthorn were given a harsh reality check from a quality Geelong outfit, having their five game winning streak ended to the tune of 51 points. The Hawks were beaten at disposals by 55, marks by 32, inside 50’s by 23 and contested possessions by 18 as Sam Micthell’s side trailed for the entirety of the match.
One of the key factors behind Fremantle’s hot form has been their improvement at scoring from turnover. Across the season the Dockers rank eighth at scoring from turnover (49.6 points per game), however in the last fortnight they’ve scored 66 and 71 points from turnover. Over the last six weeks Fremantle are averaging 66.2 points from turnover.
Fremantle will be looking to the clearance battle to gain the upper hand in this matchup, with the Dockers being the number one clearance team in the competition. Hawthorn are ranked 14th in the league for clearances, and will need to find a way to quell Caleb Serong who has won the second most clearances of any player in 2024.
One factor going Hawthorn’s way is their record in Launceston, with two wins from two games at UTAS Stadium this season. The Hawks have won five of their last six games at their second home including wins over GWS and the Bulldogs.
If the Hawks can get free flowing ball movement and turn this into a shootout, they’ll back their dangerous forward line to outscore Fremantle. However only one team in the last eight games at UTAS Stadium has scored over 100 points, which was Hawthorn against the shambolic West Coast Eagles last year.
Match Prediction: This is going to be a fascinating fixture with Hawthorn needing to win to keep their finals hopes alive, while Fremantle need to win to remain in the top four. Although Fremantle’s attacking game has improved in the last month, their numbers have inflated playing against some poor opposition. The Hawks are excellent in Launceston and know how to play the conditions better than anyone else, often bringing more talented opponents to their level as they did with GWS earlier this year.
Five of the last six games at UTAS have been decided by under 19 points, with four of the last six decided by six points or less. That’s why we’ll be looking towards the tri bet market in this fixture, with either team to win by less than 24.5 points. Hawthorn and Fremantle have been two of the most in-form teams across the last six weeks, and this will be a tight game in Tasmania.
Either Team By Less Than 24.5 Points
$1.73 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Caleb Serong 25+ Disposals: Caleb Serong continues to be elite every week in 2024, averaging 30.6 disposals per game. Serong has reached the 25 disposals mark in 15 out of his 16 games this season, and has produced performances of 32, 24, 33 and 30 disposals in his last four games against Hawthorn.
Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals: Massimo D’Ambrosio will be eager to bounce back after a rare quiet game against Geelong. Before last week, D’Ambrosio had recorded at least 20 disposals in six straight games, averaging 23.5 disposals per game across that six week period.
Dylan Moore 2+ Goals: One of the most consistent players in the competition, Dylan Moore continues to find the footy and impact the scoreboard. Moore has kicked multiple goals in his last two games, and has hit the scoreboard in three of his last four games at UTAS Stadium.
SGM Odds: $3.30 at BoomBet
